I wasn't sure, but I am fairly sure that you aren't using the diplomatic rules for the interactions between the Commonwealth, the Union, the Islamics, and the Asians.
Kurt
Anyone betting on when the inevitable nuclear general exchange will occur on Earth in Nemesis? I give it about one year before it happens, tops. :roll: ) and analysis as the Commonwealth (Coms), they would have figured out what was happening as easily as the Coms has been doing.
Look how the Coms have known exactly what every other powers' ships can do, what they are armed with, etc.
The Coms know every time one of the other powers put a ship in for demothballing or construction.
Can't the other powers spy on the Coms shipyards, too? If they could, they should have a pretty darn good idea of what the fleets of the Coms look like.
They should know how far they've fallen behind the Coms in technology.
They should know the Coms' ships' capabilities, and should have been able to predict when certain things were happening.
Like, the colonization of Thebes. How could the Coms have been able to hide what they were up to? Even lacking knowledge of the capacity of the Coms' colony ships, yanking a million-plus people out of the economy should be noticable to foreign agents. Especially since I doubt that the Coms are shipping out the homeless and skilless (a section of a book by Douglas Adams comes to mind...
)
HD