Author Topic: Damage Suggestion - Fixing missiles  (Read 12701 times)

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Offline SteelChicken

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Re: Damage Suggestion - Fixing missiles
« Reply #30 on: March 04, 2013, 07:55:36 AM »
Couple of things to think about.   Its been 15+ years since Ive seen it, but GURPS had a decent armor system.  Armor had damage points (hit points) and DR (damage resistance).  Lets say you had a type of armor with 10hitpoints and 2 DR.  You get hit by a weapon that does 6 points of damage.   6 - 2DR = 4 points of damage to the target.  You could something like this, where some of the damage applies to the armor (DR is now 1) and some of the damage goes to the ships internals.  Basically, leaky armor.

DR could go up with technology.   Increasing levels of tech greatly increases the ability of the armor to shrug off gnat attacks.   Also, I would suggest making weight of a ship go WAY up with increased armor.  Right now you can add VERY thick levels of armor without substantial weight penalty.  Increase this GREATLY.   That way you cant just have near invincible 20-armor ships slogging around...unless you want them at stupidly slow speeds.
 

Offline sloanjh

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Re: Damage Suggestion - Fixing missiles
« Reply #31 on: March 04, 2013, 08:16:49 AM »
The solution is give armour a rating.  It stops x damage.  If the weapon does <x then it does no damage.  That stops pipsqueek weapons cold.

I'm not sure if you remember, but this is actually the mechanism that Aurora started out with.  It had its own set of problems - I can remember building something like a level 10-12 (~40-50 with today's armor) armored monitor when I was VERY low tech to engage some precursors.  It was completely immune to their ~str-9 beam hits and simply plinked away at them while shrugging off their hits.  And yes, I know this is similar to the situation with Virginia and Monitor, but was very unsatisfying as a game mechanic.

I think Steve's idea of shock damage is probably a good compromise.  Another possibility would be to multiply the strength of the warhead by some power (e.g. 1) of (WH strength/Armor strength) to get the amount of damage done.  For example, if the power was 1, then damage = (WH strength)^2/(Armor strength).  This would have a smoother cutoff (less than linear in armor strength), while still tipping the balance towards high-damage weapons and high-armor targets.  For example, you would only need a str-2 warhead to do 1 damage point against str-4 armor, while a str-4 warhead would do 8 pts of damage against str-2 armor.  And if you measured armor strength by first calculating the hit location then taking the actual (damaged) depth of armor at that spot, then you get the "multiple hits to the same section ..." for free.

John

PS - It would have been good to read Brian's response before writing the above :)
 

Offline Paul M

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Re: Damage Suggestion - Fixing missiles
« Reply #32 on: March 04, 2013, 09:04:54 AM »
One thing that makes permanent armour not so bad is to have weapons have two ratings:  penetration, and damage.  Penetration is how much armour the weapon can bypass and damage is how much it does if it can penetrate.  You can make weapons that have high penetration and low damage, low penetration and high damage, or other combinations.  Missile warheads can have their penetration increase by the square of their size while their damage is something else.  

You can play games with weapon special abilities...hits reduce armour etc.  Adding in a damage capacity before penetration drops as was suggested also works.  The big thing is that you stop the 1pt (Überkannonen) = 1pt (peashooter) effect that is implicit to the ablative armour model and that at the end of the day breaks the system.

It basically gives a lot of parameters that can be adjusted to tune things.

The fact that at low tech you can make an armoured brick doesn't say the mechanic is bad it says that you have to look at the details some more.  For example:  You can make a limit to the value of armour at a specific tech level.  You can make special rules about how a weapon can still cause spalling or partial armour penetration/shock, etc.  There are lots of ways to deal with the situation.  Ablative armour is at the end of the day a trap you can't get out of once you are in it.  Shapes of penetration are good but only if the sandblaster isn't available, if the sandblaster is then who cares if this other weapon has a nice deep penetration I just hit them with 27 smaller weapons and get the same effect, and it is nearly axiomatic that trying to stop 27 of something is harder than stopping one of something else.

At the end of the day my feeling on what generates a good rule set is to look at how something functions in the real world and base your game system around that.  

If you want to specifically stop size 1 missiles being used as a sandblaster then you can change the warhead rules.  Make two warheads one designed for Anti-missile work that does only 10% damage to a ship (pick whatever percent you like).  The other is an anti-ship warhead that can't be used against missiles.  Then someone has to decide which sort of missiles his ships carry.  You still end up with the problem of FAC/Box launcher size 1 missile volleys in the 100s destroying anything they are targeted on though.
« Last Edit: March 04, 2013, 09:38:45 AM by Paul M »
 

Offline TheDeadlyShoe

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Re: Damage Suggestion - Fixing missiles
« Reply #33 on: March 04, 2013, 10:58:24 PM »
Ermm

i think you guys are overestimating the effect of the ablative system.

AMMs and size 1 missiles are 'broken' because they can't be efficiently stopped by active means, not because sandblasting is effective.  Bigger warheads are more effective than sandblasting, because of hit distribution. 

to draw from other game systems as well, people used lots of PPCs and Gauss Rifles in battletech for more reasons than range. Better clustering led to more dead battlemechs. 

any fix to AMMs that encompasses only damage reduction can lead to a cascade of other effects, most notably on beam combat.   Plasma cannons, lasers, and railguns would all have severe reductions in effective range.  Mesons would be unaffected, and particle beams mostly so. 

Also, because of how armor works, it would also likely be a nerf to small vessels, particularly beam fighters/facs. 
 

Offline Conscript Gary

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Re: Damage Suggestion - Fixing missiles
« Reply #34 on: March 04, 2013, 11:09:36 PM »
Yeah. Which is why I love the 'proximity hits' idea for missile impacts that Steve had. No effect on beam combat while still reserving small warheads for AMM duty
 

Offline Paul M

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Re: Damage Suggestion - Fixing missiles
« Reply #35 on: March 05, 2013, 02:42:19 AM »
A bigger warhead does more damage but at the end of the day who cares?  Many small hits are equal to one big one.  The fact that more small missiles are harder to stop, fire faster, are quicker and cheaper to build, are easier to carry (probably constrained by the fact you need more of them), have a cheaper launcher etc are just awesome sauce poured on the mix.

In battletech a helicopter mounted AC2 is devestating...you are forever shooting in the back of the mech.  But the main point is that in battlemech a single lance of light mechs will loose to a single assault mech but after that battle the assault mech will be no longer combat capable.  In the real world a bunch of armoured cars engaging a MBT will not accomplish much of anything unless they get lucky and break a track.

A real world navy game, such as Bismark by Avalon Hill, you see very clearly why you don't send smaller ships against larger ones.   In the missile age the misunderstanding of the effects of missiles led to people building ships that would not survive combat because the assumption was ships would not survive combat...modern naval designs no longer assume as ship subject to missile fire will be sunk and armour makes a return.

I don't understand why beam weapons are so pathetically short ranged a laser in 5s can fire out to 1.5m km (5 x300,000 km/s).  Particle beam weapons would be probably around 0.75c in terms of beam velocity assuming a charged beam but I'm not sure their range would be that extreme since the space charge effects would dominate.  For neutral beams the situation is better but still unlikely that you could hold the beam together for so long.  Fusion beams or plasma caronades are much shorter ranged since the plasma tends to disperse as the square of the distance travelled.

If you use armour with a damage stopping rating you only run into a problem if for the weapon damage = penetration.   Then it is relatively easy to build armour you can't penetrate.  Go away from that with weapons rated for both damage and penetration and the problem goes away.

But so long as you stick to ablative armour it always pays to use many small weapons as opposed to one big one.  It is the direct consiquence of the fact all weapons must do at least 1 pt of damage and that all 1 pts of damage are equal regardless of where they come from.  The only thing generally speaking then that the larger weapons offer is range.  But ultimately as Dan once remarked on the starfire board "Quantity has a quality of its own." 

My personal perference is not to use "swarm tactics" but it is hard to argue that it isn't effective.  And it shows up in every game that I have seen that uses ablative armour and non-differentiated weapons.
 

Offline TheDeadlyShoe

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Re: Damage Suggestion - Fixing missiles
« Reply #36 on: March 05, 2013, 03:54:35 AM »
It's not true that many small hits equal one big one in an ablative scheme, as long as it has hit locations.   It will virtually always take more damage in STR-1 hits than it does in larger hits to destroy a vessel.  Random hit distribution usually results in hits piling on top of each other, giving concentrated damage much greater armor penetration. 

Again, you saw this in battletech,  most notably with decapitation kills and other forms of coring.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem

Also size is irrelevant in the modern scheme.  When naval gunnery was dominant, bigger ships mounted bigger guns and therefore had a qualitative advantage.    With missiles, every ship packs pretty much the same punch and there is no qualitative size difference.   The same goes for armored cars versus tanks, there's a reason everything and their mom has an ATGM strapped on. At least in terms of armaments directly.   I'm not sure how big a ship you need for an AEGIS system.   

Quote
I don't understand why beam weapons are so pathetically short ranged a laser in 5s can fire out to 1.5m km (5 x300,000 km/s).
I think the idea is they can't do enough damage to noticably ablate a ships armor xD

You can eventually get weapons with a lot longer range than that, but I believe beam firecontrols max out at 5c. Longer range just helps your effective range.

@Conscript Gary -  Frankly, I'd like to see both of steve's ideas. Shock damage would be great regardless, and would help compensate for the loss of total damage from a proximity system.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2013, 04:03:19 AM by TheDeadlyShoe »
 

wilddog5

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Re: Damage Suggestion - Fixing missiles
« Reply #37 on: March 05, 2013, 05:33:46 AM »
Another method that could be used would be like the one used in the armor for sword of the Stars 2. In this case the armor tech could add a negation layer for every other level of tech.
 

Offline Paul M

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Re: Damage Suggestion - Fixing missiles
« Reply #38 on: March 05, 2013, 05:44:05 AM »
Aurora doesn't have hit locations.  And in battletech a heavy or assault mech will loose armour over so much of its surface in combat with a group of smaller that is effectly no longer combat worthy.  Battletech has specific to hit head hits, which make it fully possible for a medium mech armed with a clan PPC to kill an assault mech with a single hit.  That is specific to the combat system of battletech.  It doesn't change the fact that damage is damage and if it comes from a PPC or an AC2 it is still damage.  Enough AC2 hits is the same as a single hit from the PPC in terms of the damage to armour overall.  Clearly a few good hits from a PPC to the same area will end the fight sooner.  The same thing happens when high penetration damage weapons stack in aurora or Renegade Legion: Interceptor or Leviathan.

As far as tanks go, politicans continously confuse AFVs and IFVs with tanks.  They aren't the same.  A MBT is considerably more effective then a IFV regardless of the IFVs ATGMs.  It is the combination of armour, and weapon that makes it so.  There is a world of difference between a 120 mm smoothbore and 25 mm chain gun or 75 mm smoothbore in terms of effectiveness.  ATGMs give the IFV an ambush capacity, but are pretty much useless offensively, and their lack of armour means they can't be too agressive.

Missiles are not identical over ship type.  Larger ships in real life carry more powerful longer ranged missiles (harpoons and tomahawks for the US).  Smaller ships carry smaller missiles (not necessarily fewer of them as there are or were russian litorial combat ships that carried a massive number of missiles).  The effectiveness of the missile is also different (warhead size of the smaller missiles is obviously smaller).  It isn't as big as the difference between a destroyer and a cruiser in WW2 but it isn't a trivial difference either.

In aurora there is no reason not to use small missiles to snow the person under.  The game is set up to make this the best solution.  It is because the armour is ablative and there is no signficant advantage to the larger warhead and there is a huge advantage to a larger salvo size.  This is the same thing you see in any game with ablative armour.  It is IMPLICIT to the system.  It is why the system is for the birds as far as I am concerned.  You can't fix it because it is a direct consiquence of the armour model.  Sticking in damage paterns from Renegade Legion: Interceptor or Leviathan as is done in Aurora makes weapons have some flavour but at the end of the day the smallest, fastest firing, 1 pt damage weapon will inevitably turn out to be the best min-max solution that the min-maxers gravitate to.

When you have undifferenciated weapons such as starfire does...basically all ships carry the same weapon it is just a function of how many they mount then it gets even worse.  In starfire the only two reasons for big ships: WP assaults where the amount of fire power you can get through in each transit wave is critical, and missile ships where salvo size counts.  Beyond that generally speaking a large number of small ships or even small craft have the same firepower.

Renegade Legion: Leviathan got around this a bit with its ablative armour a couple of ways.  Shields were not ablative and weapons were strongly limited by ship type.

The easiest way to fix this as I have suggested is to make armour not ablative (within that is several flavors of how it works) and for weapons to decouple penetration from damage.  When that is done then you can play around with the numbers to make what you want to happen happen.  Otherwise you are trying urinating into the oncoming wind or tugging on supermans cape or however you want to put it...
 

Offline TheDeadlyShoe

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Re: Damage Suggestion - Fixing missiles
« Reply #39 on: March 05, 2013, 06:32:41 AM »
The Russians built hundreds of 200 ton missile boats that carried 4 Tomahawk-sized missiles.  Just as even a fighter in Aurora can carry all but ludicrous-size missiles.  There is no correlation between per-missile damage potential and ship size.

Aurora does have hit locations, it has armor columns.    You concede that high damage weapons can stack hits and end fights faster but you somehow still conclude that 'damage is damage' ? :/  The fewer stacked hits you require to penetrate the armor and start inflicting internal damage, the less total damage you have to do to a vessel to kill or mission kill it.

In any case.   The damage model is not irrelevant, but it misses the point.   The size 1 problem is as follows: you can have a group of warships which can stop or mostly stop a wave of 50 size 4 missiles, but they will still be hit by 150 of 200 size 1 missiles.  There is no active defense strategy that will help you against size 1 spam without overwhelming superiority in BP or technology.  All you can do is stack on armor or stay out of range.  Non-ablative armor would not fix this problem, since it's still possible to swamp defenses with size1s.. You can even put stronger warheads on small missiles.  (Say hello to uncle MIRV.)

///

FWIW a Size1 AMM is about the size of a Tomahawk or the Russian Styx.  With a nuclear(or better) warhead.    These are big booms you are suggesting having bounce off!
 

Offline swarm_sadist

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Re: Damage Suggestion - Fixing missiles
« Reply #40 on: March 05, 2013, 07:14:10 AM »
///

FWIW a Size1 AMM is about the size of a Tomahawk or the Russian Styx.  With a nuclear(or better) warhead.    These are big booms you are suggesting having bounce off!


Again, I must point out that a nuke is only x-rays and neutrons. The Orion Drive Main Plate could withstand those explosions from a few metres away (hundreds of times). This is special armour we are talking about.
 

Offline TheDeadlyShoe

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Re: Damage Suggestion - Fixing missiles
« Reply #41 on: March 05, 2013, 07:42:54 AM »
as per wiki, Project Orion suggested bombs between 0.03 and 0.35 kt.  A Tomahawk W80 goes up to 150kt.

you have a point, but I'm not expressing incredulity over an AMM not killing a ship... 1 pt of damage is not much.

As a side note...   the wiki notes that the Project Orion guys did in fact get pusher plate ablation from their nukes... until they discovered that a layer of oil would prevent it O_o
« Last Edit: March 05, 2013, 07:56:59 AM by TheDeadlyShoe »
 

Offline Paul M

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Re: Damage Suggestion - Fixing missiles
« Reply #42 on: March 05, 2013, 08:05:28 AM »
The Russians built hundreds of 200 ton missile boats that carried 4 Tomahawk-sized missiles.  Just as even a fighter in Aurora can carry all but ludicrous-size missiles.  There is no correlation between per-missile damage potential and ship size.

Aurora does have hit locations, it has armor columns.    You concede that high damage weapons can stack hits and end fights faster but you somehow still conclude that 'damage is damage' ? :/  The fewer stacked hits you require to penetrate the armor and start inflicting internal damage, the less total damage you have to do to a vessel to kill or mission kill it.

In any case.   The damage model is not irrelevant, but it misses the point.   The size 1 problem is as follows: you can have a group of warships which can stop or mostly stop a wave of 50 size 4 missiles, but they will still be hit by 150 of 200 size 1 missiles.  There is no active defense strategy that will help you against size 1 spam without overwhelming superiority in BP or technology.  All you can do is stack on armor or stay out of range.  Non-ablative armor would not fix this problem, since it's still possible to swamp defenses with size1s.. You can even put stronger warheads on small missiles.  (Say hello to uncle MIRV.)

///

FWIW a Size1 AMM is about the size of a Tomahawk or the Russian Styx.  With a nuclear(or better) warhead.    These are big booms you are suggesting having bounce off!


It is at the end of the day not relevant if 4 missiles can do the job of 40 missiles if it is easier, cheaper and simplier over all to achieve 40 missile salvos.  Which under aurora's system it is.  Box launcher, FACs, size 1 launchers etc.  That it is easier to stop the 4 missiles is just icing on the cake.  With Aurora's armour locations once I scrub off 50% of the amour from one row, I start working on the next, with 40 missiles I am going to bore deep holes anyway just from random chance, but you require random chance to get fast penetration with bigger warhead missiles anyway.  If the armour is deeper then their penetration then the 4 larger missiles are more likely to make 4 holes in the outer layers than stack on each other.  I could do the math to see if the chance is higher for 40 missiles to punch through than for 4 missiles but it still comes down to luck.

Where we are going around in circles is that we haven't defined what we want to achieve.  If I want to kill the ship and that is all, then I can say it has so much internal damage capacity and so much armour and I have to do that much in the way of damage to the ship.  So the ship has 40 internal hits and 100 armour hits and it takes 140 damage to destroy it.  How I give that 140 damage is in the first pass not relevant to the price of tea in china.  If I say I want to destroy the ship as fast as possible or with as few hits as possible then the way the damage is done matters.  To be clear I am talking about the first situation.  So to me it is the case that 1 pt of damage from a warhead of 1 is the same as 1 pt of damage from a warhead of 9.  

To be additionally clear the use of damage patterns makes weapons distinct and adds flavour but otherwise it is still ablative armour.  The inclusion of armour locations in my view doesn't change the issue with ablative armour, it just makes for more tactics in the game itself.  At the end of the day enough small weapon impacts in the same armour area are equal to a single large weapon.  In most games this leads to the swarm.  

In aurora you have two problems:  the first is that it easy with size 1 missiles to overwhelm any sensible missile defence, and the second is that the missiles are capable of inflicting damage to the ship or ships targetted.

The first problem is due to the many things.  Point defence ranges are also so short that you can't thin the salvo out in the time you have (due to absurdly high missile velocities).  As the salvo size is larger than typical counter missile salvos you probably can't stop enough missiles with your area defence ship and have to rely on point defence fire and in which case see above.  Those are things to do with the mechanics of aurora, and could be fixed in a variety of ways.

The basic problem though is that the size 1 missile is capable of inflicting damage on the ship.  Because if it wasn't then you would not be firing the 150-200 missile salvo in the first place.  And it is capable of doing that damage because the armour is ablative.  I am seriously dubious people have a size 1 missile with a warhead that does 4pts of damage, they almost always will keep the warhead damage at 1 and use the free space for more range, more speed and more manueverability.  But if I wrong so be it, but I have been assuming right from the onset here that people are complaining essentially about getting hit by large numbers of Anti-missile missiles with size 1 warheads used in an anti-shipping role.

If you want to fix the missile damage problem then you have to do something about the root cause rather than treating the symptoms as far as I am concerned.  If a size 1 warhead had no chance to damage a ship, there would be no 150-200 missile salvos*, and there would be no problem to solve. In real life you can fire a SAM at another ship, but the damage to the other ship is not exactly overwhelming.  Much the same way as firing 20 mm AA guns would do "something" but rather a lot less than 12" main guns to use a WW2 example.

*Or at the very least the missiles would be less accurate, slower and shorter ranged which gives you a better chance of stopping them as a larger warhead on a size one missile has a significant performance impact.
 

Offline TheDeadlyShoe

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Re: Damage Suggestion - Fixing missiles
« Reply #43 on: March 05, 2013, 08:27:32 AM »
Virtually all ships will be destroyed with significant amounts of armor remaining, it's not a fixed number. Sandblasting will almost always take more total damage to destroy a ship than big warheads.

Random chance does not equal out between big hits and little hits.  It's somewhat counterintuitive.  Thus my link to the birthday problem.  There's a 99% probability that in a group of 57 people, 2 of them will have the same birthday.  This means that if you fire 57 missiles at a 365 armor column ship there is a 99% probability that two missiles will land on the exact same armor column.

The following is repost from an earlier topic:

let's assume you have a 6,000 ton warship being attacked by missiles, which is 29 armor columns.  The second missile has a 1/29 chance of landing on the same location. The third missile has a 2/29 chance of landing on either previous location. The fourth has 3/29, and so on. It rapidly becomes more probable to have landed two hits on the same location than not. That's for *direct hits* on previous impact craters.   What this basically means is that battle-damaged ships armor will be mountains and valleys - even on the thickest armor, you're likely to have undamaged columns while other sections have been completely penetrated. 

or to put it another way: if you hit something with 7 missiles, there are 21 distinct chances for hits to cluster. on a 29-column (or 6000 ton) hull that works out to about a 52% chance that 2 missiles will hit directly on top of eachother.  So lets suppose that the hull is armor rating 5, being attacked by strength 9 warheads - you have a 52% chance of internal damage after taking only 63 points of damage out of 148 armor strength.  Bear in mind that this significantly underballs that chance, because it does not take into account damage outside the 'central column' of the pyramid.

If you hit that same ship with 10 missiles, you have about an 80% chance that two of your hits will be on top of eachother. 15 missiles is a 98% chance. 

***************

If SAMs had nuclear warheads they'd do plenty of damage to other ships. ^___^

Armor changes would necessitate mass upheavels in weapon balance and a lot of current 'military' designs would end up completely or effectively unable to hurt enemy ships.   I think it would also restrict the capability of players since it shifts the game to Go Big or Go Home...  the degree of which would depend on the implementation.   Though my own "Armor HTK" proposal from earlier in this thread would at least give low damage weapons some capability to hurt armor. 

but if you could effectively defend against AMM fire somehow then it would just be another strategy that you can counter.  Like right now the AMM balance is basically 3 AMMs per ASM, and the ASM doesn't really matter much.   What if it were somehow changed so it's basically 1 MSP of AMM per MSP of ASM? IE, an incoming AMM would be easy to take out, but a size 4 ASM might require up to 4 AMMs to counter, or a single size 4 AMM.    I have only vague ideas how such a scheme could be accomplished,   but at the least it would only effect missile balance. 

My point has just been that you are blaming the ablative armor system excessively.  Size 1 missiles arn't broken because of ablative armor, which you clearly don't like on general principles.    You could change ships so that AMMs are nearly useless versus ships but you could do that with size 0 warheads if that's all you want.

I don't actually have anything against non-ablative systems either, they have their advantages too.   I just had a thought about a simple one actually.  Armor just acts like an HTK boost to internals.  Like, strength 5 armor causes 1 HTK components to be 6 HTK.    So a str1 hit has a 1/6 chance of causing damage to that component, while a str4 hit has a 4/6    (Note this isn't the Armor HTK proposal I just referenced). 
« Last Edit: March 05, 2013, 08:49:50 AM by TheDeadlyShoe »
 

Offline sloanjh

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Re: Damage Suggestion - Fixing missiles
« Reply #44 on: March 05, 2013, 08:34:12 AM »
 To be clear I am talking about the first situation.  So to me it is the case that 1 pt of damage from a warhead of 1 is the same as 1 pt of damage from a warhead of 9.  

To be additionally clear the use of damage patterns makes weapons distinct and adds flavour but otherwise it is still ablative armour.  The inclusion of armour locations in my view doesn't change the issue with ablative armour, it just makes for more tactics in the game itself.  At the end of the day enough small weapon impacts in the same armour area are equal to a single large weapon.  In most games this leads to the swarm.  

Hi Paul,

  I'm not arguing with your central thesis that the fundamental problem with size-1 warheads is overwhelming active defences.  But your statement that I've quoted is not precisely correct.  It might be roughly correct, but it's not precisely correct.  The reason is that you can kill a ship that still has armor left over.  In other words, the DTK (Damage To Kill, by which I mean the number of damage points required to burn through the armor and inflict enough internal damage to kill the ship) is different when using large warheads than when using small.  (It is also different for hits than for missile hits of the same strength, since beams have a different damage template.)

To illustrate this, imagine a fighter with that can take 1 internal damage point; let's say it has 10 columns of depth-1 armor (I know it would have less than that in practice, but the point I'm trying to illustrate is the same).  If I hit it with a str-4 warhead, that hit will kill it; 3 points will be soaked up by armor (due to template) and 1 will penetrate, killing it while 3 armor points remain.  If I hit it with 4 str-1 warheads, then chance of a kill is less than 100%, since there's a (fairly good) chance that all 4 hits will hit a different column.  (If I've done my combinatorics right, then the probability of a kill is (10/10)*(9/10)*(8/10)*(3/10)*4 = 86.4%).  In other words the armor soaks up more damage from smaller hits.

You might say that from a practical point of view this doesn't matter, since if the target has the ability to shoot down 1 missile then the str-1 missiles win (3 damage points applied vs. 0), but I don't think that that's what people are disputing.  It's the statement that the points of damage applied from small warheads are the same as those from big warheads.

John

(edit: nope, did combinatorics wrong.  Probability of not killing is (10/10)*(9/10)*(8/10)*(7/10) = 50.4%, PK is 49.6%).

« Last Edit: March 05, 2013, 08:39:20 AM by sloanjh »