Aurora 4x
Off Topic => Off Topic => Topic started by: MasonMac on March 15, 2020, 01:38:56 PM
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For me, it feels very strange with how everything is changing so quickly.
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Just fine as long as the internet stays up.. and even better if Aurora C# is released soon. Did what I can do already so doesn't do much good to worry about things now, will just have to go with whatever happens.
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Canada here. We're sorta just getting our feet wet with it—only 310 cases country wide so far— but it hasn't stopped people from going off the deep end with hoarding.
The biggest disruption for me thus far is that I'm not skipping classes anymore....they're all online so I don't have to leave my room to partake. I'm enough of a hermit that the recommended social distancing measures are less than I already do normally, lol.
Some concern for my family members though, who are not nearly the hermit I am capable of being, especially my grandmother. Statistically, our family is going to see a case, its just so unlikely we all dodge it, and 3 of the 10 likely to be exposed are in the high risk age group.
For me, it feels very strange with how everything is changing so quickly.
Such is the power of an exponential growth rate. At one point, it all starts with one person, and then its just a couple people after a couple days. Wait a few weeks and the same couple days means a few hundred more, instead of just a few, later a few thousand, etc.
That same power cuts both ways.
Just taking yourself out of the equation means you are less likely to be infected, and if you are not infected, you cannot pass it on, which means no one else to pass it on that would have gotten it from you. Might they get it from someone else? Sure, but that's time to grow its numbers that the virus never gets back, the curve that grows from this person is delayed, which means hospitals don't get hit so hard. If it were possible to measure both outcomes, one person will be a measurable change in the outcome a couple weeks later.
For everyone though, not panicking is the biggest thing. Panicked people make stupid decisions, forget important details, plan poorly, and they suffer most via self inflicted anxiety, if not also via the consequences of poor decisions/planning/forgetfulness during critical times. Calm people respond rationally, take the correct steps to success, and generally obtain a better outcome than those who panic.
Second by only a slim margin are the simple steps of stop going out to have fun, stop buying things you don't need, avoid places where lots of people will be at once or over time (theaters, grocery stores, govt offices like a DMV) and step up the not touching things and washing after if you must go there. The fewer people you are near and things you touch that others touch, the less chance you are exposed, or expose others if you have it by that point. The more you wash after touching things, the less chance you get infected.
So when c# finally drops, give in to the dark side! Become a semi-permanent accessory attached to your PC via the keyboard. Never again are you likely to have the WHO backing you up on ignoring the outside world's existence to play games inside as being the best thing you could do right now. Until then, start practicing for that day, being a hermit isn't easy for everyone. A little practice now means a smoother transition into 16/7 aC#!
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In New Zealand, all good just few cases all from overseas people and/or Kiwi returned from overseas.
However, I can see self-isolation working better with an Aurora C# release.
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In Rochester New York and everything is shutting down. I work at a University and we are doing remote for the remainder of the semester, kids are out of school, and wife (teacher) is home for the rest of the school year. Got lots of food, household tasks, and screens to keep us busy.
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I'm in the USA and a pizza delivery driver, so I'll be working and busy until they shut down the restaurant industry, my guess is maybe a week for that. Or until one of my customers ignores the contact free delivery options and coughs directly in my face and I have to quarantine. I'm not in the vulnerable groups for the virus so I'll be fine on that front but if I lose more than a week or two of income and tips I will be having a rough time. So far so good though.
Grocery stores in my area are pretty overwhelmed, but I was able to get most of my usual staples when I shopped, turns out the local asian markets have more stuff in stock than the Safeway's or whatever, will have to make a journey to find toilet paper in a week or so but I think supply will catch up to demand by then.
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The asian grocery stores being almost unaffected by the hoarding is a thing up here too.
I don't know if its just that people aren't aware they exist, or casual racism in assuming they carry nothing they'd want because its an asian grocery store.
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The asian grocery stores being almost unaffected by the hoarding is a thing up here too.
I don't know if its just that people aren't aware they exist, or casual racism in assuming they carry nothing they'd want because its an asian grocery store.
I think it's a bit of both but also there is a fear that since the Coronavirus is from China then anything from Asia might be contaminated. Every day we find ways to be stupider.
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I would have just assumed it has to do with a mostly-asian clientele, with the asians being somewhat more collectively minded and therefore less likely to do things against the interest of the group (like hording a bunch of toilet paper).
I wouldn't really have any samples though, because I don't even know what an asian grocery store would look like and have never seen any signs of such a thing in my area (that I was able to recognize as a grocery store, anyhow).
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Sweden have around 1000 known cases and 3 dead. Been home for 6 days and going to probobly stay home a week more, cold symptoms... And having a chronic "fault" and working as a tramdriver might not bee the best way to stay safe. But we have full salery and dont need a paper from the doctor for the first 14 days.
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Mrs Akhillis and I have had colds the last two days.
They're just colds and they're already going away, but its still been worrying. I'm 99.99% sure it wasn't coronavirus, but its hard to get that voice whispering "what if you're wrong?" out of your head.
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From what i understand is that a lot of young and otherwise healthy people do get it and it only feels like a cold or something, stay home and don't cough on anyone I guess.
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In Singapore. Our version of the panic going on in the US and Europe I assume happened around a month ago, right now the main issue for us is complacency.
I find most people tend to two extremes: Going crazy and buying a smeg ton of necessities to stock up, and completely dismissing it as a threat.
I would have just assumed it has to do with a mostly-asian clientele, with the asians being somewhat more collectively minded and therefore less likely to do things against the interest of the group (like hording a bunch of toilet paper).
I wouldn't really have any samples though, because I don't even know what an asian grocery store would look like and have never seen any signs of such a thing in my area (that I was able to recognize as a grocery store, anyhow).
Disagree, tons of stuff like hoarding happening here, haha. It started in Hong Kong and Taiwan, where there were false rumours of toilet paper shortages sparking massive panic buys of toilet paper. Then it spread to other countries like Singapore.
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In Czech Republic. We have around 300 confirmed cases. Schools and most shops are shut down. Basically you can only leave home to go to work, shopping for food or medications or to go to post office.
Several smaller villages are completely quarantined and patrolled by police.
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People are absolute frakking morons, despite the president asking everyone to stay inside as much as possible and only going outside if you really need to, I see a bunch of people milling about in the park from my window. They're not respecting social distancing at all either. I've even seen some chick teaching her kid to rollerskate, is this really the right time? All non-essential shops (cigarettes and booze are apparently essential) are already closed, I can't understand why they haven't enacted total lockdown like in Italy yet. Two regions' hospitals are already swamped, and it's only going to get worse now.
I'd rather see the military and police patrolling and making sure morons are kept safe from themselves, but I think I'll see engineer brigades looking for mass grave spots instead. I'd say that'd be well deserved, but that'll also kill people haven't done anything wrong, because they're incapable of thinking farther than their own little self.
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I'm doing well here, up in Canada. I caught wind of this back early February and saw the trajectory of exponential growth, so I started buying more slowly over the following weeks. Now employers here are generally asking people to work remote, schools are shutting down, etc. So I'm hunkering away with what I bought and whats part of my usual emergency stores, and going to chill out, play video games, work on my own game and generally try to avoid becoming a carrier.
Sure, I'll probably be fine (Although the family of viruses Corona belongs to have a history of permanent lung damage in survivors, so not keen in trying that dice roll out) but I'd rather not be the person who starts a chain of infection that kills someones grandparents, y'know.
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Will be interesting here in the UK as well. I'll have to learn how to do online teaching for the rest of the semester - luckily Easter break is almost here. University cannot close completely because there are thousands of international students here, many of whom cannot return home and need support and services. No crazy hoarding in my neck of woods though apparently it happens - Sainsbury's CEO emailed all customers to explain the danger of hoarding and how modern logistics chains operate.
Irritatingly, I was supposed to present a paper at the SMH2020 conference at Arlington but first my University put a blanket ban on overseas travel and then Trump banned Europeans from travelling to US so scratch that. Hopefully things will get back to normal by midsummer as I have a research trip planned for July which I might need to postpone. I know it's selfish of me to be annoyed at such things when some people are dying but that's human nature for you.
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No cases on the Isle of Man so far, although I suspect there must be some undetected ones. The government here has just passed a law that everyone arriving on the island from tomorrow onward has to self-quarantine for 14 days. Not advice, actual legislation.
Other than that relatively normal; gatherings still allowed, schools still open. Some panic-buying going on in the last few days but nothing too crazy. I ran my own computer model at the end of January and stocked up accordingly with food with sell-by-dates in 2021 or later, so we are in good shape in terms of supplies.
Working from home as much as possible. We will probably bring all the family (both children, partners, and grandson) here at some point and shut the doors if necessary. We have enough food to feed them all for a couple of months at least, excluding what they bring with them. I even have a Jerry can that can filter drinking water from lakes and rivers, so we are OK even if there was an issue with water supplies (I bought the Jerry can for the motorhome).
Hope everyone stays safe.
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Illinois is going batsmeg crazy. No bars or restaurants are to have dine in after today. No gatherings of more than 250 people. Schools are closed until April at the earliest. All for 64 cases.
I personally think the media is hyping this beyond any reasonable state.
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That's sort of the point, you want to be able to look back and say "we overreacted to this" because the alternative is pretty dire.
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Everything around me is shutting down. My mom did some panic buying on Friday, but failed to get a bunch of important things. I was able to get a few more things yesterday, though.
I live at home with my parents, and my mother has asthma and sleep apnea. These prior respiratory issues means that her getting sick would be a pretty big problem, so we're stuck at home.
When I went to the grocery store yesterday, I noticed these things were not on the shelf:
Bread, eggs, frozen vegetables, soaps of any kind.
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That's sort of the point, you want to be able to look back and say "we overreacted to this" because the alternative is pretty dire.
We're definitely still in the "we underreacted" side of things here.
Maybe it'll change, but I doubt it.
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Exponential growth is like that. Is this all an overreaction? Maybe, but by the time we would know it is, it would be too late. The US had a thousand new confirmed cases today. Yesterday it was 700. The day before that, 550. If we wait until hospitals are overflowing to shut things down, then things could get very bad.
As for me, well, no problems here! I tend to be pretty introverted by nature, so now I have a reason for it. I'm more worried about my family, really, but so far no one's feeling sick.
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My concern isn't primarily the virus, but the potential economic consequences. If schools are closed for example, then parents have to stay home. Those parents will be law enforcement personnel, doctors and nurses, truck drivers, power plant and water treatment workers, etc.. Normally the grandparents would step in to look after children, except they are being told to self-isolate, which takes that option off the table.
As transport and hospitality companies shut down due to a lack of business, their workers become unemployed. Now the total spending power of the population falls, so other companies not directly affected see falling sales and they too let workers go. If we are not careful, that turns into a cascade effect. High unemployment can lead to social unrest, etc. and to more extreme forms of government in the longer term.
There are a lot of dominoes that could fall if the virus causes these type of knock-on effects. That is another reason we are stocked up, rather than simply ensuring we can isolate from the virus.
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Yeah. In New York at least, I imagine that restaurant workers and Taxi/Ride-sharing drivers are going to get hit the worst. They're usually living paycheck-to-paycheck and are unfortunately likely to get sick.
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The Netherlands are basically locked down until 6th of April as a result of the virus.
Labour hours are spread as much as possible and working from home is encouraged as much as possible. All schools are closed, education services are to be provided through the internet. Sporting clubs and events, gyms, musea and concert halls are closed and/or cancelled. Restaurants, cafes and coffeeshops are closed, although take out and delivery services are still available. Any gathering of 100 people or more forbidden. Personnel in critical infrastructure jobs (power, telecom, water, gas, public transport, law enforcement, health care, fire department and the like) are still expected to perform their duties, arrangements have been made to ensure their children are looked after in their schools.
If you are ill, stay at home. If you have flu or cold like symptoms, stay at home.
Luckily, Dutch labour law is pretty clear about when you may be fired from a job as a result of an illness. It's basically a big fat no unless it has rendered you unable to work that job for several years.
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I hope you all have read enough articles on how the Coronavirus spreads by now. For example, that the identified cases is the tip of the iceberg, given the silent incubation period (part of it anyway) and low intensity symptoms in at least half carriers. Estimate is that for one identified case, there can be from 10x to 100x contaminated people.
That's why most governments react with are one step behind, sometime two, mostly to not frighten their own population and disturb too much the daily life.
Steve, you should not wait before getting back at your home the persons you spoke about, the more time passes, the more probable there will be one which has the virus without symptoms yet.
France is now, at last, in full lockdown, but it has been done too late, with the same lateness as Italy. We currently have 6650 known cases, meaning we can have from 60k to 600k asymptomatic carriers. As soon as we have more than 10.000 people in respiratory distress (that's our national capacity, give or take 2k), our death rate will jump to what Italy experiments, so from 0.5% to 5%.
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When Hubei had 400 cases erupt in one day and went into lockdown, 6 days later they knew via asking each patient when they first felt ill, how many were newly symptomatic on that day. Nearly 2500 new cases that day, not 400.
South Korea, Patient 31, ONE person can change the outcome for the worse, equally, that same person could mitigate or even eliminate spread beyond them. In this instance, Patient 31 exposed some 1200 persons, and in doing so, South Korea lost their grip on the situation.
https://miro.medium.com/max/3584/1*r-ddYhoUtP_se6x-NOEinA.png (https://miro.medium.com/max/3584/1*r-ddYhoUtP_se6x-NOEinA.png)
from here: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
The timeline of events in Hubei. The orange bars are the reported cases, those are what everyone saw happening at the time. The grey bars are what was really happening. Its worth noting you are contagious before you feel anything amiss, before those cases became ill, they were active carriers infecting others.
Also, while lockdown essentially ended spread, seeing only a slightly greater case number for one more day after and then it receded(excepting whatever happened on feb 12...), that was not reflected in that hospitals and official records saw. They saw it keep escalating out of control for 11 more days before finding the back side of the curve.
We are all going to see a similar pattern before this ends.
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Between 250 000 - 500 000 die of the regular flu every year.
I’m pretty far away from the panic button.
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Well im working in a hospital so i go to work as usual.
And waiting for the C# and keeping my fingers crossed it wont be delayed/cancelled.
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Between 250 000 - 500 000 die of the regular flu every year.
I’m pretty far away from the panic button.
No one should be panicking, it is always better to remain rational, rational minds will always prevail in comparison.
Nor should one so casually dismiss an illness that is proving to be greater than 40 times as deadly and nearly three times as infectious as that common flu.
The common flu, with 250,000 - 500,000, over its 0.1% lethality implies an infected population of 250 to 500 million. On such a base covid doesn't kill just half a million, it kills 9.8 to 19.6 million, using the current 183k cases and 7174 deaths which yields a rate of 3.92%. Of course more will be infected with no symptoms and survive just fine, which drives the rate down, while also driving the cases upwards, and we stay right where we are with ~10 to ~20 million on the same base the common flu obtains.
Italy shows us a 7.3% rate for what happens when its not taken seriously enough and swamps a healthcare system, upper end of 36.5 million at that rate. Its the combination of rate of infection, and mortality that make it so much more dangerous, swamping medical centers because people brush it off like the common flu, don't take it seriously, get infected, infect others, and make it all worse.
So no, don't panic, but only a fool would dismiss it as being of no concern and not take reasonable precaution.
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Then I choose to be the fool. ;D
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Then I choose to be the fool. ;D
https://i.imgur.com/Icgt1bb.mp4
The first newspaper was during peak flu season.
It's not just a flu.
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The issue is that people don't think ahead enough. No disrespect intended MJOne, but you just can't say you should act as normal until the death toll is equivalent to the seasonal flu. Read serious papers and see how this one is different.
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The issue is that people don't think ahead enough. No disrespect intended MJOne, but you just can't say you should act as normal until the death toll is equivalent to the seasonal flu. Read serious papers and see how this one is different.
I second this: Earlier action has enormous effects and is needed (although by now in a lot of countries it is already too late for that). For example here is an article about it: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
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Never liked the arguments around "But X kills more, so why bother trying to prevent Y". I really don't see how there is much good to be gained in just letting Corona potentially kill millions as it is threatening to do, just because the flu also kills a lot of people. Saving lives does not have to be an all or nothing thing, We already do what we can to reduce flu deaths (Yearly flu shots help a fair bit) and we really should be doing what we can for Corona.
If skipping a bar run on saint paddy's day has a reasonable chance to save lives, I'm sure I'll find a way to live with missing out. If it means I'm eating from cans and rice for a while, I'll just eagerly look forward to some return to normalcy.
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My concern isn't primarily the virus, but the potential economic consequences. If schools are closed for example, then parents have to stay home. Those parents will be law enforcement personnel, doctors and nurses, truck drivers, power plant and water treatment workers, etc.. Normally the grandparents would step in to look after children, except they are being told to self-isolate, which takes that option off the table.
As transport and hospitality companies shut down due to a lack of business, their workers become unemployed. Now the total spending power of the population falls, so other companies not directly affected see falling sales and they too let workers go. If we are not careful, that turns into a cascade effect. High unemployment can lead to social unrest, etc. and to more extreme forms of government in the longer term.
There are a lot of dominoes that could fall if the virus causes these type of knock-on effects. That is another reason we are stocked up, rather than simply ensuring we can isolate from the virus.
Agreed. I wrote my two senators and representative (in the US) yesterday advocating a plan where the Small Business Administration makes available to small business zero-interest 30 year loans that are automatically approved for up to 3 months' cash flow (can be obtained from tax records). These could be funded by selling 30 year treasury bonds, which in turn could be bought by the Fed. This would impact the impact of the economy stoppage over 30 years, which would amount to a 1-day hit per month of shut down, which is in the range of typical unforeseen events (e.g. snow days).
Even if a sizeable fraction of the businesses default on the loans, it would be spread out over several years, rather than having a sharp wave of bankruptcies all at once.
Essentially, this is printing money, but in this special circumstance it would not be inflationary since we've had so much wealth contraction already. In essence the government would be stepping in and replacing the spending on the (non-durable) consumer sector to keep businesses afloat so that once people come out of isolation the economy is still there and functioning as much as is possible.
My goal was simply to plant the seed with the political class; my hope is that they're already thinking about how to fend off small business bankruptcies, and once they are then real economists :) will come up with something along these lines or better - they're smart people after all. That's also why I'm posting here - I'm hoping to get the meme (in the original sense of the word) out into the wild so it's more likely to gain traction with the political class :)
John
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Working as usual, so far. The vast majority of our customers are grocery shops, and they are killing it right now. Things can rapidly change so we are a bit wary, but it seems we'll end the year (we have july-june) in the black, which would be extremely fine under the circumstances. But again, things rapidly change...
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Mmm, depending of much suffering this virus will do to humanity, there might come something good out of it. There should be a notable drop in harmfull emissions and in the shorter run less deaths due to this.
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Yeah X amount die from the virus, Y fewer deaths from air pollution - which is better? That's for historians to solve.
The UK will certainly be hit hard. NHS is already straining after a decade of austerity and the country is going to lockdown mode too late.
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I also read that the virus seems to thrive within a fairly narrow temperature range; about 5C to 11C.
Not sure how reliable that is, but if true we might be saved by global warming :)
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Never liked the arguments around "But X kills more, so why bother trying to prevent Y". I really don't see how there is much good to be gained in just letting Corona potentially kill millions as it is threatening to do, just because the flu also kills a lot of people. Saving lives does not have to be an all or nothing thing, We already do what we can to reduce flu deaths (Yearly flu shots help a fair bit) and we really should be doing what we can for Corona.
If skipping a bar run on saint paddy's day has a reasonable chance to save lives, I'm sure I'll find a way to live with missing out. If it means I'm eating from cans and rice for a while, I'll just eagerly look forward to some return to normalcy.
It's also worth noting that the Flu was a huge deal until we developed a vaccine. Covid-19 appears to not only be at least an order of magnitude deadlier, but there's no vaccine for it so it can spread much quicker and hit the most vulnerable populations harder.
I think we've all just seen so many doomsday movies/books/predictions where super ebola wipes out 99% of the human race that seeing a virus with predictions of "this might kill 1% of exposed populations" doesn't sound so scary. But 1% of much of the human race is still a huge number.
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I think we've all just seen so many doomsday movies/books/predictions where super ebola wipes out 99% of the human race that seeing a virus with predictions of "this might kill 1% of exposed populations" doesn't sound so scary. But 1% of much of the human race is still a huge number.
Also, while thousands or even millions of dead would be terrible, that isn't the main problem from a logistics standpoint. There will be 10x the number of dead that are seriously ill and require hospitalisation, which will probably completely overwhelm hospitals in most countries. If this does get bad, then looking after the sick, or simply isolating with them, is going to massively change society and potentially wreck the economy.
Governments are moving to draconian measures to limit the spread, but unless the virus somehow vanishes completely they are probably just delaying the inevitable. Once the lock-downs end, the spread may start again or return in the autumn with the colder weather. During the Spanish Flu pandemic in 1918/9, the second wave was far more deadly. It's a very difficult situation.
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Mmm, depending of much suffering this virus will do to humanity, there might come something good out of it. There should be a notable drop in harmfull emissions and in the shorter run less deaths due to this.
I doubt that small a population drop would help.
But apparently companies and governments are already willing to work differently because of this crisis, there's no reason they can't also work differently to tackle the global warming crisis too.
And like the corona virus, it's something we should start on as early as possible (even now, we could still do a lot to avoid the worst). Sadly, no matter how big, problems aren't dealt with unless we're neck deep in old white people bodies and it also starts affecting world leaders and their governments.
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My concern isn't primarily the virus, but the potential economic consequences. If schools are closed for example, then parents have to stay home. Those parents will be law enforcement personnel, doctors and nurses, truck drivers, power plant and water treatment workers, etc.. Normally the grandparents would step in to look after children, except they are being told to self-isolate, which takes that option off the table.
As transport and hospitality companies shut down due to a lack of business, their workers become unemployed. Now the total spending power of the population falls, so other companies not directly affected see falling sales and they too let workers go. If we are not careful, that turns into a cascade effect. High unemployment can lead to social unrest, etc. and to more extreme forms of government in the longer term.
There are a lot of dominoes that could fall if the virus causes these type of knock-on effects. That is another reason we are stocked up, rather than simply ensuring we can isolate from the virus.
Agreed. I wrote my two senators and representative (in the US) yesterday advocating a plan where the Small Business Administration makes available to small business zero-interest 30 year loans that are automatically approved for up to 3 months' cash flow (can be obtained from tax records). These could be funded by selling 30 year treasury bonds, which in turn could be bought by the Fed. This would impact the impact of the economy stoppage over 30 years, which would amount to a 1-day hit per month of shut down, which is in the range of typical unforeseen events (e.g. snow days).
Even if a sizeable fraction of the businesses default on the loans, it would be spread out over several years, rather than having a sharp wave of bankruptcies all at once.
Essentially, this is printing money, but in this special circumstance it would not be inflationary since we've had so much wealth contraction already. In essence the government would be stepping in and replacing the spending on the (non-durable) consumer sector to keep businesses afloat so that once people come out of isolation the economy is still there and functioning as much as is possible.
My goal was simply to plant the seed with the political class; my hope is that they're already thinking about how to fend off small business bankruptcies, and once they are then real economists :) will come up with something along these lines or better - they're smart people after all. That's also why I'm posting here - I'm hoping to get the meme (in the original sense of the word) out into the wild so it's more likely to gain traction with the political class :)
John
Illinois has enough money in their rainy day slush fund for about 15 minutes of operation.
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According to the WHO, Italy has one of the most efficient healthcare systems of the world
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Health_Organization_ranking_of_health_systems
And I really don't think they took the virus lightly. Simply put, this virus tends to overwhelm healthcare systems because of the rapid increase of serious cases -> hospitals can't cure people properly etc.
So, what is unforgivable in my opinion is that OTHER nations, after seeing how badly Italy was faring even though they have a greath healthcare system, decided to do nothing at all. I mean, China does not have a comparable healthcare system, so I could have understood them thinking: "Well, we western world nations are going to do better". But considering what happened in Italy, that was obviously a pipe dream.
And despite that, they all went like: "Oh, let's hope this does not come here in great numbers." That's criminal imo, they had time to start slowing down the contagion from the beginning and instead they decided to wait and see.
And yes, I say slow down. This virus WILL spread until a vaccine is ready (12-18 months according to most experts). But slowing down the spread allows healthcare systems to react to it in the best possible way.
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Also, while thousands or even millions of dead would be terrible, that isn't the main problem from a logistics standpoint. There will be 10x the number of dead that are seriously ill and require hospitalisation, which will probably completely overwhelm hospitals in most countries. If this does get bad, then looking after the sick, or simply isolating with them, is going to massively change society and potentially wreck the economy.
Governments are moving to draconian measures to limit the spread, but unless the virus somehow vanishes completely they are probably just delaying the inevitable. Once the lock-downs end, the spread may start again or return in the autumn with the colder weather. During the Spanish Flu pandemic in 1918/9, the second wave was far more deadly. It's a very difficult situation.
And it's going to hit societies with more poorly supplied health care systems harder.
Regarding the Spanish Flu, that epidemic is atypical because of how it propagated through the world. It hit early in 1918 and mostly died off outside the trenches. Inside the trenches however the disease still spread, fast, and soldiers tend to be on the average healthy young men with very strong immune systems.
This meant that unlike most other diseases which actually become less lethal over time (so as to better spread and infect before the host dies), the Spanish Flu became more lethal because otherwise it got wiped out early and before transmission.
Combine this with WW1 lasting well into the autumn and many soldiers not returning from the trenches until well into November 1918, as well as the generally closely packed nature of life in the trenches and the need for soldiers to stay at their posts even if they're not in the best shape and, well, you get a breeding ground for a potent disease indeed. And a disease that will have infected a large number of the returning soldiers, who are returning to a home that is not prepared for the disease they are carrying with them.
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I also read that the virus seems to thrive within a fairly narrow temperature range; about 5C to 11C.
Not sure how reliable that is, but if true we might be saved by global warming :)
I would like to believe that, but if you check the Johns Hopkins University website, you see there are a lot of cases already in Iceland, Brazil, Africa, Australia, Canada.
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We (in Sweden) now see the backside of the end of the Cold war era. In 1990 we had a well built out defence, both military and civilian. 115 civilian hospitals with emergency wards, beds around 125000, in hospitals and re purposed schools.
50 mobile military hospitals, 35 army and 15 marine. Each field hospital had six operating rooms and an intensive care unit with 18 respirators, bed capacity in military hospitals were around 10000. In storage supplies for 150 000 wounded, 630 new respirators...
All this and 93% of the army was disbanded, with all the civilian defence...
Today we have 71 civilian hospitals and 2 military field hospitals, ( company size ) with total of 16 intensive care units... In total we have around 600 intensive care beds... In the whole of Sweden... That's for 10 million people...
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Well, Ukraine is locked down from today. Nearly no interurban mass transit nor urban w/o masks, nearly no meetings over 20, plenty of work moving at home mode.
I hope it will help with peak emergency load; ambulance is overload already with panic flu calls.
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We (in Sweden) now see the backside of the end of the Cold war era. In 1990 we had a well built out defence, both military and civilian. 115 civilian hospitals with emergency wards, beds around 125000, in hospitals and re purposed schools.
50 mobile military hospitals, 35 army and 15 marine. Each field hospital had six operating rooms and an intensive care unit with 18 respirators, bed capacity in military hospitals were around 10000. In storage supplies for 150 000 wounded, 630 new respirators...
All this and 93% of the army was disbanded, with all the civilian defence...
Today we have 71 civilian hospitals and 2 military field hospitals, ( company size ) with total of 16 intensive care units... In total we have around 600 intensive care beds... In the whole of Sweden... That's for 10 million people...
And getting rid of all emergency supplies. AFAIK we used to have lots of oil and foodstuffs I think stored away, but all of that is gone. Also how healthcare in general is just not working, for many reasons beyond being cut down..
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Actually me and another friend are showing symptoms. I'm mildly scared because I'm asthmatic so it could be a complication. But otherwise it's a very minor cough so far, so I'm okay.
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Scary, hope it is just the common cold, flu, or allergies. Get well soon.
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We (in Sweden) now see the backside of the end of the Cold war era. In 1990 we had a well built out defence, both military and civilian. 115 civilian hospitals with emergency wards, beds around 125000, in hospitals and re purposed schools.
50 mobile military hospitals, 35 army and 15 marine. Each field hospital had six operating rooms and an intensive care unit with 18 respirators, bed capacity in military hospitals were around 10000. In storage supplies for 150 000 wounded, 630 new respirators...
All this and 93% of the army was disbanded, with all the civilian defence...
Today we have 71 civilian hospitals and 2 military field hospitals, ( company size ) with total of 16 intensive care units... In total we have around 600 intensive care beds... In the whole of Sweden... That's for 10 million people...
In France we are 66 million with 6000 intensive care and 6000 extra that are refurbished by cannibalizing others services, so that's on par. In Italy they have at most 5000 beds. So your country is in line...
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I would gently suggest that this is perhaps not the time or place for xenophobia of this nature.
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I would gently suggest that this is perhaps not the time or place for xenophobia of this nature.
Its not a "phobia", its reality. As much as some people want to deny that.
You cant discuss the issues of global pandemic and try to be completely detached from reality.
Sorry it doesnt work that way.
So either we discuss real life stuff here or we lock down this thread and discuss only VB8/C#/other games.
Which i would welcome because i am sick of real life stuff everywhere i go and i want for at least my favourite sf game to be free of that cancer.
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I would gently suggest that this is perhaps not the time or place for xenophobia of this nature.
Its not a "phobia", its reality. As much as some people want to deny that.
You cant discuss the issues of global pandemic and try to be completely detached from reality.
Sorry it doesnt work that way.
So either we discuss real life stuff here or we lock down this thread and discuss only VB8/C#/other games.
Which i would welcome because i am sick of real life stuff everywhere i go and i want for at least my favourite sf game to be free of that cancer.
And yet you started with the xenophobic comments . . .
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I know in France and Spain people are being find several hundred Euros for breaking quarantine. However, the Isle of Man is always draconian on law and order (which probably explains why we have hardly any crime). Anyone arriving on the island has to self-quarantine for 14 days. It was announced today that the penalty for anyone breaking that quarantine is three months in jail and a £10,000 fine.
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I would also reply that while rational people can have debates about levels and scope of immigration, let's not go down the road of demonizing any ethnic or racial group - after all, the virus isn't making any distinctions. Also, as an American who lives in a city with a huge regional medical teaching and research hub, many of those doctors, chemists, and researchers who are going to save us are foreign born or second gen American. Lets check that xenophobic nonsense at the door.
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Just going to say, keep it civil. There is no need to read every post on this board. If you don't agree with a topic, move on.
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How severe the punishment is tends to have a rather limited effect on the occurrence of crime. In the 1600s and 1700s UK law became more and more severe in its punishments for various crimes, to the point that any theft resulted in death by hanging.
But while more severe punishments worked for a short time, it only took a couple of years before crime was back up to its previous numbers. Because the underlying circumstances driving crime did not shift. People generally don't commit crimes for smeg and giggles; because generally crime is already quite dangerous and pays poorly, even if it pays enough to make ends meet. No seriously, crime pays about equal to minimum wage, and you've got much greater odds of dying or severe injury than in most legitimate jobs (and those are better paid).
The ways to suppress crime isn't worse punishments. It's the assurance of getting caught and punished, the removal of circumstances driving crime and a culture that considers crime and life as a criminal as wrong.
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I would gently suggest that this is perhaps not the time or place for xenophobia of this nature.
Its not a "phobia", its reality. As much as some people want to deny that.
You cant discuss the issues of global pandemic and try to be completely detached from reality.
Sorry it doesnt work that way.
So either we discuss real life stuff here or we lock down this thread and discuss only VB8/C#/other games.
Which i would welcome because i am sick of real life stuff everywhere i go and i want for at least my favourite sf game to be free of that cancer.
And yet you started with the xenophobic comments . . .
Again - its not phobia. Stop using words you dont know the meaning of.
There is real reason why Sweden suddenly had to close all those hospitals and fire the staff and why problem described by the previous poster actually exists.
But if it makes you any better we can pretend Swedish government simply run out of pixie dust they are fueled by.
I know in France and Spain people are being find several hundred Euros for breaking quarantine. However, the Isle of Man is always draconian on law and order (which probably explains why we have hardly any crime). Anyone arriving on the island has to self-quarantine for 14 days. It was announced today that the penalty for anyone breaking that quarantine is three months in jail and a £10,000 fine.
I like that whole corona if i have to be honest. Suddenly my country starts to look normal with lack of traffic jams, no goddamned "tourists" visiting my hospital Emergency Ward because they were bored or their head hurts ( for five days ), there are no lines in shops, public transport isnt clogged by elderly people going god only knows where at 5AM Sunday etc.
Im going to miss this calm when its going to be all over.
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How severe the punishment is tends to have a rather limited effect on the occurrence of crime.
In France, the fine is €135. I think people inclined to leave their houses would not be too deterred. I believe the threat of three months in jail would have more than a limited effect on that decision.
To take that to the extreme, if illegal parking had the death penalty, I suspect the level of illegal parking would drop considerably.
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To some extent, yes it would be reduced, yet it's not an cure-all. Japan has an extremely draconian punishment system, yet crime exists. China does not hesitate to execute drug dealers, yet drugs and their users exist.
Obviously I'm not saying that there should be no punishment and obviously there is a massive difference between Japan/China and say USA or France or South-Africa. Criminology is a complex topic and reasons behind crimes are nuanced.
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Criminology is a complex topic and reasons behind crimes are nuanced.
Yes, agreed.
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I like that whole corona if i have to be honest. Suddenly my country starts to look normal with lack of traffic jams, no goddamned "tourists" visiting my hospital Emergency Ward because they were bored or their head hurts ( for five days ), there are no lines in shops, public transport isnt clogged by elderly people going god only knows where at 5AM Sunday etc.
Im going to miss this calm when its going to be all over.
So you are a massive jerk. Noted.
In France, the fine is €135. I think people inclined to leave their houses would not be too deterred. I believe the threat of three months in jail would have more than a limited effect on that decision.
To take that to the extreme, if illegal parking had the death penalty, I suspect the level of illegal parking would drop considerably.
Quite possibly, if the chance to get caught is high enough. At the same time, enforcing illegal parking regulations suddenly got a lot more dangerous because if people are going to get executed anyway for that, the incentive not to kill the people enforcing that law for fear of worse punishment just got a lot smaller.
And seriously, for most people just having to pay a fine of any level is enough of a deterrent just because of the hassle of dealing with the fine. But it won't be enough of a deterrent for people who believe they have a pressing enough reason to leave their house. Like if they are out of food and can't get access to food through other means. And in such a circumstance? A 3 month stay in prison won't be enough either.
That said, criminology is indeed a very complex topic.
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my country's health system is NOT prepared for this, and we have are not taking this seriously enough in my opinion. Brasil is going to have it VERY rough. but fortunally, both my grandmas have been taking precautions, so I think we will be fine. I am asthma, and just about every other thing wrong with my lungs, but since this quarentine thing is basically my lifestyle already, I am not at all worried for myself.
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So you are a massive jerk. Noted.
Damn right. At least i admit it.
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Since people are getting their panties in a bunch and cannot play nice, I'm locking this thread.