Here's the skinny:
Colony cost x2
Current Infrastructure: 140
Current population supported by infrastructure: 0.70m
Current population: 0.56m
Current outstanding contracts: Demand x10 Construction Factory
Earth has: Supply x10 Construction Factory
As far as I can tell, all other outstanding contracts are balanced between supply and demand (is there some master screen that shows all of them?)
It has been nearly 10 years, and no civilian ship has visited the colony either to fulfill a contract or drop off colonists. Civilian ships have had no trouble visiting my other colony, which is also one jump away. There is no hostile presence in the system. There is a two-way jumpgate in place.