Regarding Cholet. A prospective 18 ML, 12 SDs vs a combined 200 Monitors and SDs? Adding in the CVs as roughly the value of MLs, that is still 200 to 65 in Big Boys. Fleet costs are probably closer, and tech level and fighting on the defensive helps.
Another consideration for the Eater Hegemony. If the ASR is forced to reveal the existence of cloaking technology, Home Hive 4 might not launch the attack at all. After all, every communication with the Home Hive about the progress of the advance against the chaos race runs the risk that a cloaked ship could detect a transit and reveal at least the general location of the cloaked warship.
The problems of running an extended offensive deep into enemy space without being able to get additional resupply makes the Cholet line far less attractive.
The cloaking issue is a serious concern for the ASR. Ideally, the ASR wants to preserve the secret of the cloak for as long as possible, which means limiting its use until a decisive battle is in the offing.
Having said that, the ASR has a moral/philisophical problem. The Xeons, for all that they got themselves into this mess through their scheming, are still a sentient race and there are billions of Xeon's on their home planet. If the Eaters can survey the Xeon colony system quickly enough, and find the warp point to the Xeon system before the ASR and the Alliance can rush reinforcements into the area, then they will invade and destroy Xeon Prime, killing billions. The ASR simply cannot allow that to happen and stay true to themselves.
The ASR's cloaking tech will give them a perfect opportunity to raid Eater forces in the Xeon colony system as they attempt to survey the system. If they are successful enough they will delay the Eaters long enough to allow the heavy ASR reinforcements that are already en route to arrive, but at the cost of giving up the existence of the cloak.
On the other hand, the ASR defenders in Cholet have political issues complicating their defense. For defending the ASR, having the strategic option of maintaining a Fleet In Being to force the Eaters to stay concentrated and focus only on one warp line at a time, and complicating Eater supply situation could be more militarily advantageous than an all or nothing defense of Cholet. But politically that would be impossible.
In a similar vein, while the Alliance and ASR have overwhelming military power in overcoming the Xeon isolation and sovereignity issues, they will have to treat Xeon internal matters with serious kid gloves. Xeon will be about as front stage on galactic affairs as Iraq is for Real Life world affairs. Everybody watches the Big Boys to see how they behave. News from Xeon is going to be very widely watched, so any mistreatment of Xeon could have negative political implications for both alliances.
This is true, for the most part. The ASR has been dealing with the negative publicity of their handling of the Ayoun in the original incursion for years. Their friends merely saw their handling of the Ayoun as a necessary evil given the situation, but it gave those who were either hostile or merely cautious much to think about, and directly resulted in at least some of what happened in the Colmar Sector when the Unified Races invaded.
The ASR can be very self-righteous when it comes to the Eaters and associated issues.
The initial responses of the ambassadors indicated something else to me. Unless the Alliance puts a very negative spin on Xeon, people are going to be _very_ excited about the news from Xeon. First, there is the prospect of a big ally coming in to help, and second, they will all be rooting for the Xeon defense to hold. After all, if the Xeon line fails to hold, their new hope is pretty much dashed. Unless they share warp point data with the ASR before the fall of Xeon, the ASR would be unable to break through to the Alliance.
From the ASR perspective, anything that looks like they are punishing a race that _immediately_ reversed all previous policies upon discovery of Eaters is going to be, hmmm, a problem too. 
The situation is very complex. The Xeon, at least on the surface, are doing everything that either the Alliance or the ASR could ask of them. Given the fact that there is an Eater force int he adjacent system that out-masses their entire defense establishment by ten or fifteen times over, easily, that is understandable.
The Alliance/ASR dynamic is simultaneously very simple and very complex. The ASR represents everything the Alliance has ever dreamed of. The Alliance has lived in the shadow of eventual annihilation by the Eaters, and the sure and certain knowledge that their economy was inevitably inferior to that of the Eaters, and that the situation was getting worse every month that went by, has been sapping their will and paralyzing them. The Alliance's leadership is privy to studies that show conclusively that they cannot conceivably win any conflict with the Eaters, barring outside influence. The ASR, a very large HT group of races dedicated to the destruction of the Eaters, is literally a dream come true for the Alliance.
The ASR's point of view isn't so desperate, of course, but even so their feelings are clear. A small alliance of races, started by heroic refugees from an Eater attack, bravely girding themselves for the inevitable Eater onslaught. Its got everything, and it will appeal to the Gorandans and the ASR in general on a very basic level.
The problem, and what makes the situation complex, is that it just looks too good to be true to both sides. A little time would go a long ways towards solving that, but time is exactly what they don't have unless they defeat the initial Eater assault force.
Kurt
