Author Topic: Maximizing Economic Growth for Fun and Profit  (Read 5393 times)

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Offline Hurmdurm (OP)

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Maximizing Economic Growth for Fun and Profit
« on: April 18, 2013, 11:28:50 AM »
Naval combat is widely considered to be the heart of Aurora.  But Aurora includes other elements as varied as industry, private shipping, and ground combat to enrich the simulation and provide additional strategic depth. 

Because Aurora's sheer depth and breadth is enough to overwhelm any new player, I began by trying to acquire a deep understanding of the its economic elements before moving onto actual military design.  Two principles rapidly became apparent: (1) economic growth is exponential, and (2) the size of an empire's economy acts as the key component of its military growth.  For these purposes, I consider "the economy" to consist of four main areas: factory production, research capacity, mineral exploitation, and wealth creation. 

Why is economic growth exponential? Construction factories create more construction factories (and mines, research labs, etc. ).  At the same time, research labs are working to increase the effectiveness of existing factories and other installations.  Mining and wealth act as constraints: as long as you've got enough money, and enough of the right kinds of minerals, to run the factories and research labs, everything is fine; if not, everything grinds to a halt.

How does the economy contribute to military power? Military power is created through industry, research, and mineral exploitation.  Greater industrial capacity allows more numerous ships and ship components to be created more rapidly; greater research capacity allows them to be more powerful and effective.  Again, mining and wealth are needed to keep factories and labs operational.

When these two principles are considered together, things get interesting.  Economic growth may be exponential, but the magnitude of the exponent depends on the amount of economic capacity devoted to economic growth rather than military power.  So economic growth and military growth are in a zero-sum game: to increase one, you must decrease the other.

Military growth may be non-linear - there's plenty of strategy devoted to seeking effective and cost-effective military action, after all - but it certainly doesn't seem to be exponential.  So a potential strategy emerges: devote as much of the economy as possible to economic growth for as long as possible, then switch over to military growth only when needed.  This strategy can be highly rewarding (see the example below), but it's also highly risky; if you miscalculate how much military protection you need, or wait too long to increase it, then the aliens are going to catch you with your pants down. 

For example, suppose Empire A devotes its entire economy to economic growth, allowing it to grow its industrial capacity by 10% per year.  From the same starting conditions, Empire B devotes half of its capacity to military growth and half to economic growth, so its economy grows at only 5% per year.  In 25 years, Empire A's economy will be roughly three times the size of Empire B - so although it has no military yet, it can expand its military power three time faster than Empire B, allowing it to easily out-produce and out-research its competitor.  However, if it waits too long to do so, then it risks premature hostile contact, which would reduce its highly developed economy (along with everything else) to a cloud of irradiated dust.

So how do know when the heavily armed xenophobic bug-eyed monsters are going to show up and make our day? There are three risk factors:

• Interstellar exploration.  Moving through jump points to new systems risks the discovery or creation of NPRs.
• Existing NPRs.  They do exploring of their own, and they might discover you.  The risk is directly proportional to the number of existing NPRs that you choose during game creation, and inversely propotional to the size of the galaxy.
• Invaders.  These are extremely aggressive, in the sense that they explore rapidly and are totally hostile. 

Fortunately there's some element of player control to all of these: the first is the direct result of imperial decision-making, and the latter two are determined by the player in the meta-game.  (Invaders can even be toggled after the game begins. )

Finally, I'll note that this strategy is totally defensible from a role-playing perspective.  It's not hard to imagine a scenario in which the Trans-Newtonian Revolution cures all social ills, rendering war obsolete.  (In fact, the total lack of intra-imperial income disparity seems to support at least some of this. ) Then the newly de-militarized society begins optimistically growing and spreading.  When it makes first contact and somebody gets blown up, everyone else buckles down and starts making bigger laser cannons.   (For an example in literature, see Larry Niven's "The Warriors". )
 

Offline Hurmdurm (OP)

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Re: Maximizing Economic Growth for Fun and Profit
« Reply #1 on: April 18, 2013, 11:30:48 AM »
Now that we've established the theory, how do we put it into operation?

Before the gameplay proper begins, there are already plenty of decisions to make:

• Starting government type, which determines starting installations
• Starting research; I recommend you choose this yourself rather than randomizing it
• "Fast OB" ships, build points equal to starting slipways * 1000
• "Fast OB" PDCs, build points equal to half that of starting ships
• Fighters; according to the game-creation dialog, two years' production
• Ordnance; same as fighters

Your choices here will be partly a matter of taste; here's what I've selected.

Starting government type: Meritocracy.  This provides the most research labs of any government, and therefore the most starting research points.  Compared to the generic Player Race, it receives 50% more research labs and points in exchange for 1/6 fewer factories (and one fewer shipyard. ) This seems to be a clear win; the massive boost in early research is worth close to three times the lost construction capacity in raw materials alone.

Starting Research:

Code: [Select]
Type Research Cost + prereqs Total
BG Terraforming Module 5k 05000
BG Terraforming Rate .002 atm 3k+5k+10k 18000
CP Construction Rate 16 BP 3k+5k+10k 18000
CP Expand Civilian Economy by 20% x3 5k+10k+20k 35000
CP Mining Production 16 tons 3k+5k+10k 18000
CP Research Rate 320 RP 5k+10k+20k 35000
LG Boat Bay 1k 01000
LG Improved Command and Control 5k 05000
LG Ship to Ship Tractor Beam 5k 05000
PP Fuel Consumption: 0.7 Litres per EPH 1k+2k+4k 07000
PP Minimum Engine Power Modifier x0.25 1k+2k+4k 07000
PP Ion Drive (& Gas-Cooled Fast Reactor) 3k+5k+6k+10k 24000

Total: 178000 RP, which leaves 2k left over for racial tech. 

• The three levels of Research Rate, Construction Rate, Mining Production, and Civilian Economy Expansion make my economy 60% more productive right from the start. 
• My empire's terraforming rate is doubled, which should eventually boost population growth.  (Smaller colonies grow faster, and faster terraforming means they won't be constrained by infrastructure. )
• Improved Command and Control allows me to build a sector command right away, utilizing more administrator bonuses. 
• The various engine technologies allow me to leap-frog past nuclear engines (a popular choice) and greatly extends the fuel efficiency and range of my ships. 
• The Terraforming Module, Tractor Beam, and Boat Bay are just there to give my starting ships and PDCs something useful to do…

Starting ships:

• One freighter and one colony ship, to jump-start civilian shipping and mining with a colony on Luna
• One geosurvey ship, to explore Sol
• One terraformer and one tug, to sink the remaining points into something useful

Starting PDC: As many boat bays as possible.  This will hold the starting fighters, and eventually gravsurvey and military ships. 

Starting fighters: I create as many cheap fighters with as much PPV as possible, to mitigate eventual unrest on other colonies in Sol. 

Code: [Select]
Richthofen class Fighter    495 tons     4 Crew     23.5 BP      TCS 9.9  TH 11  EM 0
1111 km/s     Armour 1-5     Shields 0-0     Sensors 1/1/0/0     Damage Control Rating 0     PPV 6
Maint Life 0 Years     MSP 0    AFR 99%    IFR 1.4%    1YR 2    5YR 24    Max Repair 6 MSP
Intended Deployment Time: 0.1 months    Spare Berths 6   

10.8 EP Military Ion Drive (1)    Power 10.8    Fuel Use 53.25%    Signature 10.8    Exp 9%
Fuel Capacity 10,000 Litres    Range 6.8 billion km   (71 days at full power)

10cm Infrared Laser (2)    Range 20,000km     TS: 1250 km/s     Power 3-1     RM 1    ROF 15
Richthofen Fire Control (1)    Max Range: 20,000 km   TS: 2500 km/s
Pressurised Water Reactor (1)     Total Power Output 2    Armour 0    Exp 5%

This design is classed as a Fighter for production, combat and maintenance purposes

Starting ordnance: There seems to be nothing actually useful to be had here, so I just create some bombs and immediately scrap them for a few hundred minerals and wealth.

Additional thoughts:

• There's an exploit to be had with the starting ordnance.  Missile fuel is recovered when scrapped, but it doesn't add anything to the the cost.  (Normally it's deducted from fuel stockpiles, but not when it's added via SpaceMaster. ) So you can design missiles with a tiny payload and implausibly huge fuel reserves, spend your free starting ordnance production on them, then scrap them for a few billion free fuel.
• Civilian shipping of colonists and trade goods generates significant tax revenue, but each ship tries to take new trips once per time increment (every eight hours at most).  So running auto-turns in eight-hour increments will result in much higher wealth generated for the empire and the shipping lines than turns in five-day or thirty-day increments, assuming there are destinations nearby (e. g.  Luna, Mars. )
• Shortening production cycles will result in civilian construction occurring more frequently (it has a chance to occur once per cycle, regardless of the cycle's length. ) This applies to both ship production and civilian mining complex expansion.  The latter has some odd effects: if you let the civilian sector take the minerals, they'll generate a lot of revenue (and then rapidly exhaust the minerals); if you buy the minerals for your empire, it'll bankrupt you as the mines expand faster than your revenue sources.
 

Offline chicagohotdog

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Re: Maximizing Economic Growth for Fun and Profit
« Reply #2 on: April 18, 2013, 12:22:46 PM »
I do something similar to this but slightly less aggressive.  I use 50-75% of my starting research points for economic growth as you suggest, but then save some for immediate development of military technology if I run into aliens early.  With enough time, the added bonus of your 100% economic focus would win out but a slightly more conservative approach leaves you less vulnerable to discovery of hostiles in the next system over.

Still, I like the overall idea.  I like to play as a peace-loving people who only develop military to protect themselves.
 

Offline Charlie Beeler

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Re: Maximizing Economic Growth for Fun and Profit
« Reply #3 on: April 18, 2013, 12:31:35 PM »
Not that it's really stated anywhere...but government type is intended as a guidance for controlling player run NPR's only.  Player controlled races are supposed to stick to "player race".  The various racial values (Xenophobia, Diplomacy, Militancy, Expansionism, Determination,Trade) are supposed to be used to govern actions and interactions.
Amateurs study tactics, Professionals study logistics - paraphrase attributed to Gen Omar Bradley
 

Offline Hurmdurm (OP)

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Re: Maximizing Economic Growth for Fun and Profit
« Reply #4 on: April 18, 2013, 03:00:05 PM »
Quote from: chicagohotdog link=topic=6103. msg62521#msg62521 date=1366305766
I do something similar to this but slightly less aggressive.   I use 50-75% of my starting research points for economic growth as you suggest, but then save some for immediate development of military technology if I run into aliens early.   With enough time, the added bonus of your 100% economic focus would win out but a slightly more conservative approach leaves you less vulnerable to discovery of hostiles in the next system over. 

Still, I like the overall idea.   I like to play as a peace-loving people who only develop military to protect themselves. 

Thanks, it's good to hear that there are some others who share this perspective.  It's certainly a gamble, and your approach sounds like a plausible compromise.  I partly developed the pure-economic strategy as a thought experiment; I think I'm going to see how quickly I can develop the entire tech tree using this method.

Quote from: Charlie Beeler link=topic=6103.   msg62522#msg62522 date=1366306295
Not that it's really stated anywhere.   .   .   but government type is intended as a guidance for controlling player run NPR's only.     Player controlled races are supposed to stick to "player race".   

I didn't know about this.  The first tutorial mentions

Quote
Government Type includes some modifiers for Empire characteristics, such as Xenophobia, Militancy, Determination, etc.    and affects the amount of industry and how it is divided at game start.    For now, just leave it as a player race.   

which led me to believe that changing one's starting government is totally kosher, like choosing research yourself.   
« Last Edit: April 18, 2013, 03:06:08 PM by Hurmdurm »
 

Offline Charlie Beeler

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Re: Maximizing Economic Growth for Fun and Profit
« Reply #5 on: April 18, 2013, 03:22:22 PM »
It's a partial carryover from Starfire and not a set "rule".  The various government types are to give some personality to NPR's.  They work just as well for giving varying personality to player races.  Someplace around here Steve posted what the various Mods influenced.
Amateurs study tactics, Professionals study logistics - paraphrase attributed to Gen Omar Bradley
 

Offline James Patten

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Re: Maximizing Economic Growth for Fun and Profit
« Reply #6 on: April 18, 2013, 05:07:35 PM »
It boils down to: do you produce guns or butter?

If you start in Sol, getting Mars colonized and terraformed is great way to generate income for your civilian fleet.  My empire long ago got to the point where I could buy all the minerals the civilians were mining and still have plenty of income.

I should also point out that at some point minerals and construction speed becomes critical.  I have a very wealthy empire but it still takes a while to build ships.
 

Offline Hurmdurm (OP)

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Re: Maximizing Economic Growth for Fun and Profit
« Reply #7 on: April 18, 2013, 09:03:07 PM »
Quote from: James Patten link=topic=6103.   msg62537#msg62537 date=1366322855
It boils down to: do you produce guns or butter?

If you start in Sol, getting Mars colonized and terraformed is great way to generate income for your civilian fleet.     My empire long ago got to the point where I could buy all the minerals the civilians were mining and still have plenty of income.  

I should also point out that at some point minerals and construction speed becomes critical.     I have a very wealthy empire but it still takes a while to build ships.  

I actually think that Luna may be better than Mars for early colonization purposes; it lacks Mars' starting atmosphere (which is highly marginal in any case) but its extreme proximity to Earth reduces transit times to practically zero.    Mars has a slightly higher surface temperature, but that is apparently immaterial as you need a total atmospheric pressure of 0.   3334 for breathability, which is the only way to lower the colony cost from two to zero.    In all other ways they seem to be identical; Luna even has (inexplicably) a hydrosphere.  

I should mention that I research all of the four core economic technology lines (construction, research, mining, and wealth) equally, so that they're all around the same level.    That seems to provide enough wealth to keep things running without major deficits or surpluses, though your mileage may vary based on your population growth and construction projects.    Mineral exploitation is a bit more unpredictable due to the random distribution of deposits and transit times, but the most efficient strategy would presumably be to watch your stockpiles like a hawk and boost mining for declining minerals.   

Once time starts passing, I have three indefinite ongoing construction projects, each receiving an equal fraction of my industrial capacity: automated mines, research labs, and construction factories.    This seems to be provide a good mix of growth in each area.    I expect to run into a population shortage on Earth eventually, which should be solvable by shipping research labs to other colonies in Sol.    This produces an additional wrinkle where partial progress on research projects can't be shared between planets; but that should still be easier to manage than moving minerals around (especially since mass drivers ship every type of mineral at once.   )

I think the most effective way to boost ship construction would be to keep building construction factories so that you can rapidly prefab ship components.    I've found that if I do this enough, the level of my shipbuilding rate tech becomes almost immaterial, and I can spend those research points on my construction rate instead.  
 

Offline Charlie Beeler

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Re: Maximizing Economic Growth for Fun and Profit
« Reply #8 on: April 19, 2013, 08:22:38 AM »
After some digging I found that the government type mods is over on the old Rigellian Diary Yahoo Group.

Basicly-

Xenophobia: A rating from 1-100 showing the fear of other races
Diplomacy = A rating from 1-100 showing the ability to persuade other races or improve trade deals
Militancy = A rating from 1-100 showing the likelihood this race will choose military force to achieve its goals.
Expansionism = A rating from 1-100 showing the desire of this race to increase its territory
Determination = A rating from 1-100 showing the determination of this race to proceed with a chosen course of action despite setbacks.
Trade = A rating from 1-100 showing the willingness to trade with other races and to establish/allow trading posts

Amateurs study tactics, Professionals study logistics - paraphrase attributed to Gen Omar Bradley
 

Offline Konisforce

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Re: Maximizing Economic Growth for Fun and Profit
« Reply #9 on: April 19, 2013, 09:30:56 AM »
After some digging I found that the government type mods is over on the old Rigellian Diary Yahoo Group.

Basicly-

Xenophobia: A rating from 1-100 showing the fear of other races
Diplomacy = A rating from 1-100 showing the ability to persuade other races or improve trade deals
Militancy = A rating from 1-100 showing the likelihood this race will choose military force to achieve its goals.
Expansionism = A rating from 1-100 showing the desire of this race to increase its territory
Determination = A rating from 1-100 showing the determination of this race to proceed with a chosen course of action despite setbacks.
Trade = A rating from 1-100 showing the willingness to trade with other races and to establish/allow trading posts



Is there anything about actual in-game effects from changing those numbers?  I have a vague recollection that having a xenophobia under 50 means minorities won't cause unrest in your empire, which I would do just for the spam reduction.

I'd say Luna is the better bet but you definitely would have to run 8-hour cycles in order to take advantage of it.  Bulking it out with spaceports would be worth it as well, because the loading / unloading is a much greater % of time spent when you're travelling to Luna rather than Mars.

Has anyone crunched the numbers on colonizing planets when starting the atmosphere from scratch?  If not I'll look at the numbers when I'm home.  But what I mean is, there's the minimum amount of oxygen needed for breathability, plus enough other gasses to make oxygen under 30%.  So the boundaries of the range would be whatever temperature you'd get if you filled up the 70% with either greenhouse or anti-greenhouse gas.  Any planet with a temperature within that boundary would be effectively the same amount of work to terraform, assuming there was no atmosphere on it.  Or does the base temperature of the planet change that calculation significantly?  Can't recall ATM.
Come take a look at Victoria Regina, an old-timey AAR
 

Offline Hurmdurm (OP)

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Re: Maximizing Economic Growth for Fun and Profit
« Reply #10 on: April 19, 2013, 10:24:10 AM »
Quote from: Konisforce link=topic=6103. msg62549#msg62549 date=1366381856
Has anyone crunched the numbers on colonizing planets when starting the atmosphere from scratch? If not I'll look at the numbers when I'm home.  But what I mean is, there's the minimum amount of oxygen needed for breathability, plus enough other gasses to make oxygen under 30%.  So the boundaries of the range would be whatever temperature you'd get if you filled up the 70% with either greenhouse or anti-greenhouse gas.  Any planet with a temperature within that boundary would be effectively the same amount of work to terraform, assuming there was no atmosphere on it.  Or does the base temperature of the planet change that calculation significantly? Can't recall ATM.

Greenhouse factor is a multiplier for the base temperature, so it matters for those calculations. I have done some work on calculating terraforming atmospheres, but not exactly in the way that you mean.

If you want to build "garden worlds" that are as Earth-like as possible, this pseudo-code will tell you what mix of gases to use:
Code: [Select]
Oxygen = .2
If Base Temperature x Albedo < 95.6667 [too cold to reach 14C]
Safe Greenhouse Gas = 1.8
Else If Base Temperature x Albedo < 151.0526 [pressure > 1 at 14C]
Safe Greenhouse Gas = (287 / (Base Temperature x Albedo) - 1.02) / 1.1
Else If Base Temperature x Albedo < 260.9091 [pressure = 1 at 14C]
Safe Greenhouse Gas = 287 / (Base Temperature x Albedo) - 1.1
Nitrogen = .8 - Safe Greenhouse Gas
Else If Base Temperature x Albedo < 956.6667 [pressure = 1 at 14C]
Anti-Greenhouse Gas = -287 / (Base Temperature x Albedo) + 1.1
Nitrogen = .8 - Anti-Greenhouse Gas
Else [pressure > 1 at 14C]
Anti-Greenhouse Gas = (-287 / (Base Temperature x Albedo) + 1.02) / 0.9

But that's only useful for role-playing purposes, or perhaps if (like me) you've massively overbuilt your terraforming capacity to suck the atmosphere out of Venus. I have yet to develop the equivalent algorithm for minimally viable worlds - i. e. , atmospheres that require the least terraforming to reduce colony cost to zero.

But I have done it on a case-by-case basis for the inhabitable bodies of Sol:
Mercury: 0.1 oxygen, 0.63 AGG
Venus: 0.1 oxygen, 0.0402 SGG, 0.1932 filler
Luna: 0.1 oxygen, 0.1852 SGG, 0.0482 filler
Mars: 0.1 oxygen, 0.156 SGG, 0.0774 filler
Jovian moons: 0.1 oxygen, 0.9946 SGG
Titan: 0.1 oxygen, 1.8 SGG, 0.1 filler

So while Mercury is frequently ignored because the colony cost is so high, it's actually easier to terraform than anything in the outer solar system.

Is there anything about actual in-game effects from changing those numbers?  I have a vague recollection that having a xenophobia under 50 means minorities won't cause unrest in your empire, which I would do just for the spam reduction.

I'd say Luna is the better bet but you definitely would have to run 8-hour cycles in order to take advantage of it.  Bulking it out with spaceports would be worth it as well, because the loading / unloading is a much greater % of time spent when you're travelling to Luna rather than Mars.

I believe militancy and xenophobia also affect PPV demand and police effectiveness, and determination affects population surrender. I have not been able to find any indication that the other values have any effect.

I usually just build a single spaceport on Earth and none in the colonies. They can't be moved, so I'd have to move the construction factories/brigades and minerals to construct them in place, which seems like more trouble than it's worth. Even on Earth, where most trips originate, the expense doesn't seem to justify the diminishing returns.
« Last Edit: April 19, 2013, 10:39:22 AM by Hurmdurm »
 

Offline Charlie Beeler

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Re: Maximizing Economic Growth for Fun and Profit
« Reply #11 on: April 19, 2013, 11:22:52 AM »
Search the Mechanics forum for the various race characteristics should give you the answers related to coded game mechanics. 

Things like Xenophobia dictating the % of the military ships (by BP) that are suposed to remain in the home system are not really spelled out.  They are more of a set of racial values for roleplaying NPR's.  As in a decision must be made and the racial value is a dice role control.  (ie does race X explore a given jump point?  role against the Expansionism stat / a given battle is starting to go bad. role against Determination / etc etc etc) 
Amateurs study tactics, Professionals study logistics - paraphrase attributed to Gen Omar Bradley
 

Offline Hurmdurm (OP)

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Re: Maximizing Economic Growth for Fun and Profit
« Reply #12 on: April 29, 2013, 12:18:03 PM »
Returning to the original topic...

Not all aspects of economic capacity grow in the same way. Construction factories can grow exponentially, and the combination of research and construction capacities determines how quickly research and mining capacity can grow. But population growth is actually sub-geometric; a given population's size grows by a certain percentage each year, and that percentage declines as the population's size increases. This can be offset with more numerous colonies and specialized administrators, but it's still geometric at best.

This has a couple of implications. First, population growth is the most difficult constraint to overcome on economic growth. Using automated mines and shutting down non-essential industries can alleviate some of the looming worker shortages, but construction and especially research capacities simply can't grow faster than the overall population. Second, wealth production growth is geometric at best; most of the significant wealth-producing activities, such as taxes on populations and shipping, are directly or roughly proportional to the size of an empire's population.

Luckily there's a sort of exploit to bypass wealth shortages. Take two or more colonies with more than 25 million average population, then alternate each one's colonization status between destination and source. It's possible to artificially stimulate a lot of colony ship trips this way, earning wealth for each trip. It works best with short distances and turns; the Jovian moons are ideal.
 

Offline Nathan_

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Re: Maximizing Economic Growth for Fun and Profit
« Reply #13 on: May 02, 2013, 06:14:14 PM »
"Second, wealth production growth is geometric at best; most of the significant wealth-producing activities, such as taxes on populations and shipping, are directly or roughly proportional to the size of an empire's population." - If you're willing to ship factories around you can set up a colony as a major wealth producer with financial centers, which should keep pace with factory production. that does punt the problem to overall pop growth however. Even better, financial centers don't require any particularly crucial mineral to get going unlike most other activities which tend to clash with one another.

"(In fact, the total lack of intra-imperial income disparity seems to support at least some of this. )" - Not necessarily, the social ills are most likely simply being abstracted out, they still exist, but we don't care about them for our purposes. One could fluff population growth in the 1st part of the game as said disparity being rectified however.
« Last Edit: May 02, 2013, 06:17:02 PM by Nathan_ »