I like the discussion.
This is why I love NA. People actually have to think in real term. Not just rule lawyering to try and come up with a good design in a game.
If the projectiles can be considered like shrapnel or space caltrops, then we can view the missile as a dispersion machine. At these speeds your talking about, the dispersion would have to be from far away or very fast. If fast, then explosives must be used to separate the missile and fragments apart,
Nope, no explosives. Bad idea. Poor ability to get even predictable dispertion.
If it is designed as a 'shrapnel missile', it has some lateral thrusters able to induce a degree of spin. It can build this up and then release the preformed fragments to disperse at an easily calculated rate to acheive a set level of saturation on target. This is already done in several current weapon designs.
Would it be effective against armour? Yes. Would it destroy the ship? Probably. Would it be cool? Yep. Would the ship exploded into fiery bits?
I don't care what victory looks like, smells like, tastes like.
It is victory.
Well you don't start evading when the missile has exploded, you start evading the instant the guy fires. If you can make him miss, you just have to turn opposite his movement and start speeding up. He'll overshoot you before he gets a chance to fire another shot and will take him hours to days to change direction and follow.
Furthermore, whether you can generate a miss from a missile fired within it's powered envelope (the max distance the missile can travel at full burn) can be calculated. In the standard case of a ship firing a missile at a target somewhere in front of it (front being the direction the ship is moving in), the target ship cannot make it miss.
This pretty much is drifting in the direction I did months ago.
Kinetic kill. Needs saturation and predictable target trajectory.
Guided kill. Needs target defense saturation or fractional engagement times.
Hence why I think a small ship (your huge cage or shields out a long distance from a ship just provides more area to catch bad things...) with a kinetic kill weapon (rail gun or like) with fair ROF and high ordinance carried paired with a few guided weapons (missile with nuke/lase/shrapnel payloads) in dispersed formations.
Those railguns may have a hard time tagging you with individual shots, but several closing from differing vectors may give you little room to manuever. Depending on how well you can resolve the slugs on your sensors, you may not be able to see them until it is too late. If your CIWS only has an engagement range of 10km, on a slug closing at 4000km/s, well - you have .0025 seconds to stop it. Hope there isn't more than one at a time....
Add in missiles and your manuever options may get worse. A number closing on you that you are manuevering against may chase you right into the railgun rounds you can't see coming. I also expect single ships to make multiple vector missile courses simply by manueuvering. No 'launch all at once'.
Launch one with excessive velocity that will overshoot on a wide course and then come back from the far side of a target. A second with a course to more directly approach a target. A third targetted to make a particular vector hazardous should the target decide to manuever that direction.
Saturate escape vectors with rail gun rounds.
Now put this all coming in from three or four (or more) different sources, each with several missiles closing on different trajectories, with a minefield of rail gun rounds dispersed within it.
I forsee the player best able to master this as the winner.
I have also stated, and believe, that if the tech allows you to track target ships at interplanetary distances, and the game will track the projectiles over that range, that this is the range these battles will be fought at. With ships firing from Earth, Jupiter, and Saturn on a target near Mars as an example. And manuevering against the same problem.
I anticipate lots of caffeine, incredible headaches, terrible frustration with a computer that seems to crawl towards a resolution - and amazing fun !
But until the game actually comes out, it is all just a guess.
But with ships moving at 1000s of km/s speeds, a 1kg chunk of anything is death.
The best defense will be the same as it is now in a gun fight.
DON'T GET HIT. EDIT
I also love seeing people go through the math you did Sw Sad. Reaffirms my belief that not all folks out there have been swallowed up by video games.
I did the same thing (in a different vein) many pages back in this thread, but came at it from the G's induced by firing and the bearing strength of materials to show that a rail gun slug would become anything but a lump (at best). Guided railgun rounds even at MJ ranges without ships at least half a klick in length just aren't going to be anything but a crushed molten mass.
I also debated induced occilation/maximum achievable accuracy in the barrel of a rail gun when the possibility of firing 'planetkillers' at Earth from Neptune or past orbits. Your huge rail gun would be worthless as a ship to ship weapon. But if you jump in far enough out that hostile weapons may need days to reach you, that 23 minutes (or even an hour) per shot will still give your massive ship a LOT of time to dump death on a world before it turns and jumps out.