National Updates Comment Thread

[Bremen]

I think we are about to see the titular wars begin. I think the main event will be US/Germany vs. the Caliphate, with pretty much everything riding on the first series of battles. Around a planet is where the Caliphate has the greatest disadvantage because the ranges involved will probably be short enough to counter the sensor mismatch the US ships have. Also if one or more carriers can be disabled or destroyed in the opening salvo so they are unable to launch their FACs that will deny the Caliphate most of their advantage. Assuming 4 of the 6 FACs in a standard Mersin class are Ashdod class FACs, taking out even a single Mersin denies 64 missiles that would either have been a massive alpha strike or a series of strikes. Going over the various speeds comparing the Caliphate and the US its going to be a slaughter. The US ships are almost as fast as the FACs of the Caliphate, and the US will have ~40% to hit chance on the FACs and a ~73% to hit chance on the carriers for their missiles. On the other hand the carriers can not hope to out run the US ships who are around 4 times faster than them and the Caliphate missiles will have a ~37% chance of hitting the US ships who can go faster than the mason cannons can track them at. It pretty much comes down to if the US can see the Caliphate's ships and shoot at them then the Caliphate has little chance against the US.

That's a tricky one. The Caliphate's greatest weapon is probably their long range FAC strikes, but a hundred meson armed FACs are extremely dangerous as well. Unfortunately, the FACs aren't armored; they're going to go down fast once the shooting starts.

If the US can take out some carriers before the Caliphate can launch their FACs, then the Caliphate is probably pretty screwed. If the Caliphate are quick enough to launch as soon as the US turns its actives on, then they could probably make a battle of it with the US, even stuck at point blank range. Of course, if Germany joins in then I think the Caliphate is screwed again, though this kind of asymmetrical fight is really hard to predict.

[TheRequimen]

Who is Russia going to invade for fuel?

[Steve Walmsley (OP)]

We officially have shots fired

First post for this campaign was August 10th, so that is three months before the first combat - probably a record

[MarcAFK]

Woohoo. I can't wait. My current game was inspired by your multi faction bloodbaths, but it seems that after the truce counter has run down relations are still improving, I now have trade treaties with them all and even the Islamic alliance randomly gave me some tech. On the bright side the othe factions keep throwing ships at the wormholers who should get the hint and come to earth soon.

[boggo2300]

ok bettin' time!


1)  Brazil vs Centauri
2) US & Germany vs Caliphate

[Garfunkel]

Easy. Brazil will crush Centaury and USA&GER will wipe the floor with the Caliphate.

[boggo2300]

ahh but the question is (as always) who shot first!

[Erik L]

ahh but the question is (as always) who shot first!

Han shot first.

[boggo2300]

ahh, the Germans huh?


(not that I was lurking waiting for anyone to say that...)

[illrede]

The cynic in me says that the Caliphate wrong-footed the Amero-German sneak attack with their own sneak-attack, already under way.

[MarcAFK]

I'm betting the caliphate shot first.

[Nathan_]

Who's got better trained crews? obviously if the US sees all the FACs disgorge they'll start trying to shoot. On the flipside the caliphate should have the opportunity to launch their FACs before they are destroyed even with only 5 seconds warning. One side could well be a sitting duck for 5ish minutes.

[Sematary]

I think the battle above Earth between US/Germany and the Caliphate will go to the US/Germany side because the Caliphate should have no warning. The ships shouldn't have to turn on actives because the planet should have them. I am less sure about that advantage on Eta Cassiopeiae-A III since Steve doesn't outright say if the US has any tracking stations there, but judging by how long it took them to discover the Caliphate survey ship I am leaning toward they don't, in which case that fight is a lot more in doubt. Of the three battles that will be the opening moves of that war Germany against Medina will be the most difficult to predict as its the only fully offensive battle done by that coalition.

[hyramgraff]

ok bettin' time!


1)  Brazil vs Centauri
2) US & Germany vs Caliphate

I'll take a third option and vote for a newly spawned NPR shooting at a survey ship.  Maybe one of the Manchurian ships that are behind the newly claimed Russian system.

[Bremen]

I'll take a third option and vote for a newly spawned NPR shooting at a survey ship.  Maybe one of the Manchurian ships that are behind the newly claimed Russian system.

If this lead to Manchuria blaming Russia, it would basically be the plot to a sci-fi novel :p

As far as conflicts.. the only way I can see the Centauri having a chance is if the Brazilians are idiots and the Centauri min/max the Aurora rules to hell. Assuming that doesn't happen, a landslide victory in space for Brazil, but possible difficulties on the ground since they don't have missiles to nuke any Centauri ground forces. On the other hand, once they control space they can attack the Centauri worlds one by one, so eventually they'll win.

Germany/US vs the Caliphate.. in a fair fight, this might actually be pretty close. But if the US and Germany launch a surprise attack while most of the Caliphate's forces are in Earth orbit, they'll be at a huge disadvantage. Even assuming they launch all their FACs in time, they'll have lost the chance to soften up their foes with long range FAC delivered missile strikes. So my prediction: Caliphate forces get shredded, but take out most or all of US and Germany's heavy units with their meson cannons, leaving both sides severely weakened. Germany will probably be more help on the ground than in space, since neither side is likely to want to bombard the planet and troop numbers are going to count.