NC Part 15: January 2049 - October 2049

[Michael Sandy]

Comments?   Make it up in volume?

I got sloppy on the analysis.  Again.

It is like Alice in Wonderland.  You have to run as fast as you can just to stand still, and run ever so much faster if you want to get anywhere.

You can either spend Duranium on mines to improve the Duranium intake, or spend Duranium on Supply, but one way or another, Duranium will be spent.

It takes longer than I initially estimated for the colony ship to pay off.

First two years, all expense.
Next three years, 12 manned mines come into operation, 630 ton spent on supply.
Next 5 months, 12 manned mines continue, 1/5 ship cost, or 160? spent on refit.
Next three years, 12 more manned mines, 630 on supply.
Next 5 months, 24 manned mines continue production, refit again.
After 8 years 5 months, income is well higher than outgo.
After 11 years 10 months, there are 36 manned mines.

So the conversion of manned mines to automated could be better, because the income increases immediately, and that increase can go toward making more conversions.

How much growth of population is there?  Perhaps we have been undercounting it a bit.

Over a 12 year period, the population that arrives in the third year will have doubled by year 10.  The population that was sent before the colony ship was refitted will have doubled by the end of year 12.

That population will keep increasing itself in a way that the production from and automated mine will not.

Of course, cannibalize 100 Construction factories and you get enough Duranium for 20 more mines converted.  The Commonwealth, with its relatively short distance to travel to a Duranium source, can afford the luxury of hoping that it can increase its mining fast enough that someday it can ship its Construction Factories.  The Asian Alliance and the Terran Union are probably a bit more desperate.

Can't be fun, politically, closing a bunch of factories for scrap, in order to spend the proceeds in another star system.

[Michael Sandy]

So if you have enough of a stockpile of Duranium, Supply Points, and things you can cannabilize to see you through year 10 or so, Colony Ships are the superior option.

Another important thing to note:
"End of year 10: 42 mines"
So consider the existing colony ships.  In 8 years, each of them will be responsible for increasing manpower sufficient to man 42 mines.

Naturally, there is an upper limit to the number of mines that can be shipped.  5 years of building colony ships as fast as possible will probably be enough.

But this is considering the Commonwealth's resources only.
I think that they should do as much trade with Gitanyow involving Tritanium as possible.  The Gitanyow have few mines or factories.  The more production they spend on weapons than on increasing production, the greater the likelihood that the Commonwealth will come out of the decade with a significantly greater economy.

Play up the Gitanyow's security concerns.  That also forces the Asians and Terran Union to rely on the strong Commonwealth to protect them while they do their best to establish off world colonies.

By playing up the Commonwealth's scrapping of fighter bases built in more optimistic times, and scrapping Construction and possibly Ordnance factories, the Commonwealth can portray its economic prospects as worse that they really are, and possibly prompt the Asian Alliance and Terran Union into their own drastic scrapping and/or mothballing programs.

[MWadwell]

So if you have enough of a stockpile of Duranium, Supply Points, and things you can cannabilize to see you through year 10 or so, Colony Ships are the superior option.

Agreed.

Another important thing to note:
"End of year 10: 42 mines"
So consider the existing colony ships.  In 8 years, each of them will be responsible for increasing manpower sufficient to man 42 mines.

Naturally, there is an upper limit to the number of mines that can be shipped.

Ironically enough, in 8 years, a freighter can make 42 round trips.

As the freighter takes less time to build (1 year verse 2 years), in the 10 years, it can actually make 48 trips - and so can have transfered 48 mines.....

So over 10 years with a single freighter and colony ship, 48 mines can be trasfered, and enough people to man 42 of the mines.

[Michael Sandy]

There are other things that could tie down freighters:

Shipping Jump Gate components.

Transporting automated mines to more distant and more lucrative mining sites.

The population growth curve is not a perfect match for the freighter shipping curve.  The population growth is slower at first, but will eventually outpace the freighters, so having the freighters get a bit ahead of the game in terms of shipping mines would be prudent.

Getting a bit ahead of the game in terms of shipping manned mines from Earth will also give a bit more flexibility in moving automated mines to various places with additional freighters.

[Steve Walmsley (OP)]

Well, surprisingly, a colony ship actually has a negative effect on the amount of duranium produced.....
Comments?

I think you need to bear in mind that three years is not very long in Aurora terms. I intend campaigns to last several decades and probably several centuries.

Steve

[Michael Sandy]

"several centuries"?

With a decent supply of Duranium like Thebes, once it is in production it can double its own mines and construction factories in about 15 years.  Probably more time in practice.  But "A couple of centuries" potentially involves 10 doubling, or a 1000-fold increase in the economy.

Well, with that much time, even Thebes would possibly run out after a 100-fold increase in the economy.  Well, running out would need a huge number of automated mines, because even with its population maximized it would probably only be able to support some 4-8,000 mines.

I suppose that as the game continue, beam weapon range grows to the point that jump cruisers with dispersion of 50 can be defended against with beam weapons.

I suspect that Shipyard construction rates will be the big limitation on building very large ships.  A ship that takes 10 years to build will spend 2 years in refits for each 3 in operation.  A ship that takes 15 years to build will spend equal time in operation as out.

As limitations on large ships go, that is a quite reasonable one, in my opinion.

I don't think that it would be doable at all without computer support.  I wonder how far exploration will extend beyond colonization.  There is a practical limit that 1 years travel beyond where a ship refitted will allow 1 year of surveying.  But will refit colonies be set up on the fringe or will distance just reign in exploration?

[wildfire142]

In a game I started when 0.2 wsa reasled the main drive has been to secure mineral supplies with 15 years of game time on hold while I carefully balance operatioanl ships against mining and shipping minerals with no exploration or suveying - couldn't keep enough ships running at once. Once a large enough source of duranium was found the other problems have been reduced but it still take very careful managemnet of resources.

An enjoyable but sometime frustrating situation, good game though Steve