Author Topic: Cold Sun - Discussion  (Read 9801 times)

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Offline The Forbidden (OP)

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Cold Sun - Discussion
« on: February 04, 2019, 01:08:23 AM »
Damn. The solar system sure is cooling fast. Is there any lower limit to how cold it can get or will the entire solar system just end up as an array of snowballs ?
 

Offline Steve Walmsley

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Re: Cold Sun - Discussion
« Reply #1 on: February 04, 2019, 03:26:42 AM »
Damn. The solar system sure is cooling fast. Is there any lower limit to how cold it can get or will the entire solar system just end up as an array of snowballs ?

No lower limit - eventually there will be ski resorts on Mercury :)
 

Offline Rabid_Cog

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Re: Cold Sun - Discussion
« Reply #2 on: February 04, 2019, 05:25:24 AM »
Then you just need to be aware that 2% per year is VERY rapid cooling. At that rate, the sun will HALVE in temperature in 34 years.

Note that that is halved in Kelvin, so if Earth cools at the same pace, our expected average temperature would be -129.25 degrees celcius. After only 34 years.

Unless my math is out.
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Offline Agoelia

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Re: Cold Sun - Discussion
« Reply #3 on: February 04, 2019, 05:36:45 AM »
Could there be an option to set how fast the sun heats/cools? Because this seems. . extreme? I may want to take things more slowly when I play.  Or maybe I think I do, and would just find it too easy to have more time.  But I'd like to have the option and discover for myself. 


Also (brainstorming now) would it be possible to have a similar catastrophy but it only targets Earth? I'm thinking extreme climate change due to pollution, so you don't necessarily have to rush technologies, find a suitable planet in another solar system, etc, you can "just" relocate to Mars or distribute populations on moons and asteroid in the Solar System. 
 

Offline Steve Walmsley

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Re: Cold Sun - Discussion
« Reply #4 on: February 04, 2019, 05:45:28 AM »
Then you just need to be aware that 2% per year is VERY rapid cooling. At that rate, the sun will HALVE in temperature in 34 years.

Note that that is halved in Kelvin, so if Earth cools at the same pace, our expected average temperature would be -129.25 degrees celcius. After only 34 years.

Unless my math is out.

Yes, this is definitely a race to get as much population off as possible as quickly as possible (and it won't be everyone) and then see how things develop from there. I imagine that within the next five years, the nations will begin pumping greenhouse gas into Earth's atmosphere to try to hold on as long as possible. That has its limits though and is a lot more difficult under the new terraforming rules due to the planet size rules.
 

Offline Steve Walmsley

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Re: Cold Sun - Discussion
« Reply #5 on: February 04, 2019, 05:48:21 AM »
Could there be an option to set how fast the sun heats/cools? Because this seems. . extreme? I may want to take things more slowly when I play.  Or maybe I think I do, and would just find it too easy to have more time.  But I'd like to have the option and discover for myself. 


Also (brainstorming now) would it be possible to have a similar catastrophy but it only targets Earth? I'm thinking extreme climate change due to pollution, so you don't necessarily have to rush technologies, find a suitable planet in another solar system, etc, you can "just" relocate to Mars or distribute populations on moons and asteroid in the Solar System.

You can choose 1%, 2% or 3% for both heating and cooling. I know what you mean about the time. I went for 2% to create a lot of pressure, especially with a conventional start.

I've coded another disaster scenario (but not mentioned it prior to this post) where the Earth spirals inward or outward from its current orbit due to <insert your favourite technobabble reason here>.

 
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Offline The Forbidden (OP)

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Re: Cold Sun - Discussion
« Reply #6 on: February 04, 2019, 06:12:29 AM »
Could there be an option to set how fast the sun heats/cools? Because this seems. . extreme? I may want to take things more slowly when I play.  Or maybe I think I do, and would just find it too easy to have more time.  But I'd like to have the option and discover for myself. 


Also (brainstorming now) would it be possible to have a similar catastrophy but it only targets Earth? I'm thinking extreme climate change due to pollution, so you don't necessarily have to rush technologies, find a suitable planet in another solar system, etc, you can "just" relocate to Mars or distribute populations on moons and asteroid in the Solar System.

You can choose 1%, 2% or 3% for both heating and cooling. I know what you mean about the time. I went for 2% to create a lot of pressure, especially with a conventional start.

I've coded another disaster scenario (but not mentioned it prior to this post) where the Earth spirals inward or outward from its current orbit due to <insert your favourite technobabble reason here>.

Nice. Just as an assessment, will the losses of non evacuated population be bad ? I mean, a rough idea of what percentage won't make it out, it surely won't be as catastrophic as the Commonwealth evacuation of Earth in the Trans-Newtonian campaign but still.
 

Offline Steve Walmsley

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Re: Cold Sun - Discussion
« Reply #7 on: February 04, 2019, 06:49:45 AM »
Nice. Just as an assessment, will the losses of non evacuated population be bad ? I mean, a rough idea of what percentage won't make it out, it surely won't be as catastrophic as the Commonwealth evacuation of Earth in the Trans-Newtonian campaign but still.

That was very bad :) Not sure if it will be quite as catastrophic but a lot is going to depend on the proximity of available planets. I don't know how many jump points in Sol as I left it random, so it depends where they are and where they lead.

Strange as it may sound, a medium-term lifeboat option is probably Mercury. Because it is tide locked, the temperature extremes are not too harsh in either direction (not too hot now and won't be as cold later). The assumption is that for the 'too hot' tide-locked planets, everyone lives in the 'twilight zone'. For too cold, they live in the centre of the sun-facing side. The downside is limited population capacity. Another option is orbital habitats, which are more effective in C# Aurora.

I haven't mentioned yet in the report but there is also a three billion plus 'United Nations' population, which is a neutral state for colonization purposes.
 

Offline Rabid_Cog

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Re: Cold Sun - Discussion
« Reply #8 on: February 04, 2019, 06:54:32 AM »
It's going to be pretty catastrophic unless Earth spends a ton of its construction capacity building Infrastructure. Having attempted to get a race conventional empire off-planet before (albeit with a significantly smaller start, RL wise) I can confirm that moving a ton of population off planet is a slow process. Especially if you dont have a convenient planet to drop them off at yet. Remember, a different planet in the same system is of no use. They will all cool as well.

And if the systems next door dont have habitable planets... well... then very few people are going to make it in the end. At the current cooling rate I guess at casualties in the 50% and up range.

Regardless, this is going to be bad. Very bad. Especially with 6 empires.
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Offline MarcAFK

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Re: Cold Sun - Discussion
« Reply #9 on: February 04, 2019, 07:16:26 AM »

I've coded another disaster scenario (but not mentioned it prior to this post) where the Earth spirals inward or outward from its current orbit due to <insert your favourite technobabble reason here>.
Oh this is a setup for Nemesis if ever I've seen it:
2050 : Astronomers detect an earth sized body out near the orbit of Eris. While there is initial puzzlement as to how such a large body managed to be undetected, its trajectory and speed is quickly estimated, traveling an unheard of 500 kilometers per second the body will cross the inner solar system and presumably escape into deep space. This will take less than a year due to its extreme velocity.
As more powerful eyes are trained towards "planet x", its path through the system is more carefully scrutinized, but as each day passes the predicted path gets less and less certain, finally accurate radar images confirm the anomaly.
Planet X is slowing, and its path is describing an arc far too extreme then the suns gravity should capable of producing. A new prediction is made, "planet X" will slow to approximately 30 kilometers per second, and its slowly decreasing arc will put it into orbit somewhere near the the earth.
The world panics, a new name is given to the object "Nemesis".

While thus far I have described a hypothetical body spiraling towards the sun for "insert technobabble reason" when it arrives near earths neighborhood, its position relative to earth will dictate what happens to our world as due to gravitational attraction it changes our orbit.
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Offline chrislocke2000

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Re: Cold Sun - Discussion
« Reply #10 on: February 04, 2019, 08:50:22 AM »
That does indeed look like a pretty brutal game scenario there and one that is going to be highly dependent on finding some alternative real estate pretty soon.

Will be interested to see if China and India can come out relatively better as they can afford a lot more civilian losses before that impacts construction capacity. Interesting to see just how many terraformers they might need to combat the effects or at least slow it down and who may spend on this short term solution instead of investing in transports etc.

Can't wait to read the next update!

I assume all of the turn ticks are racing along for you?
 

Offline Steve Walmsley

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Re: Cold Sun - Discussion
« Reply #11 on: February 04, 2019, 08:56:07 AM »
That does indeed look like a pretty brutal game scenario there and one that is going to be highly dependent on finding some alternative real estate pretty soon.

Will be interested to see if China and India can come out relatively better as they can afford a lot more civilian losses before that impacts construction capacity. Interesting to see just how many terraformers they might need to combat the effects or at least slow it down and who may spend on this short term solution instead of investing in transports etc.

Can't wait to read the next update!

I assume all of the turn ticks are racing along for you?

Yes, ran those five years in a few hours play, most of which was interacting with UI or write-up. Each 5-day increment is still sub-second, although there are no ships yet. A few extra shipping lines have been created during the conventional phase so once colonization begins there should be a few ships relatively quickly.
 

Offline The Forbidden (OP)

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Re: Cold Sun - Discussion
« Reply #12 on: February 04, 2019, 10:02:26 AM »
Quick question Steve : Is that set up supposed to favor the emergence of early conflict for habitable worlds or will the different powers refrain from killing one another while the world burn chills around them ? In which case they'll probably start building military forces (both ground and space - going to get interesting if good habitable worlds are scarce and some...uh...let's say less than friendly nations are forced to cohabit-) once the exodus is complete and they're a bit dispersed all over the place. (Reminds me that it'll be nice seeing actual interstellar warfare between nations rather than against NPRs, as usually in your Sol starts they usually duke it out in the home system, exception being the Alpha Centauri - Brazil war in Colonial Wars).
 

Offline Marski

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Re: Cold Sun - Discussion
« Reply #13 on: February 04, 2019, 11:21:41 AM »
Extinction looming in the horizon, are you going to distribute crucial technologies that'd help speed up the evacuation and colonization of planets? Even in such a extreme situation I have no doubt that nations would help each other in real life situation.
 

Offline Steve Walmsley

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Re: Cold Sun - Discussion
« Reply #14 on: February 04, 2019, 11:41:34 AM »
Quick question Steve : Is that set up supposed to favor the emergence of early conflict for habitable worlds or will the different powers refrain from killing one another while the world burn chills around them ? In which case they'll probably start building military forces (both ground and space - going to get interesting if good habitable worlds are scarce and some...uh...let's say less than friendly nations are forced to cohabit-) once the exodus is complete and they're a bit dispersed all over the place. (Reminds me that it'll be nice seeing actual interstellar warfare between nations rather than against NPRs, as usually in your Sol starts they usually duke it out in the home system, exception being the Alpha Centauri - Brazil war in Colonial Wars).

At the start, all nations don't really have resources to devote to conflict. As things progress, that may change if resources are scarce. I'll see how it progresses.