I'm sorry, are you reading a different discussion to the one i am?

No, I'm simply interested in only part of the discussion. I'm not interested in the "larger picture" or "larger point". I was simply trying to clear up a misunderstanding as to what Fermi's Paradox is. This is quote from your very own post:

Quote from: TheDeadlyShoe on June 01, 2012, 03:24:47 PM

^^Fermi paradox

(...) That's saying they tend to die quickly based on lack of evidence of their existence isn't it?

Basically, unless I completly forgot how to read English, you're mistaking Fermi's Paradox for some kind of statment (not sure how else to call it) that since we haven't found any aliens, they have to die off. But this is something completely diffrent as to what Fermi's Paradox is. It's not even connected in fact. Correcting this misunderstanding was the only thing I had in mind - not the larger discussion.

Then you said this (again, quote from your own post, an answer to my explanation what the Fermi's Paradox is):

Exactly. And therefore, it is reasoned, intelligent life must destroy itself before it gets the chance to overrun the galaxy.

Please note you said "it is reasoned" and not "I think" or something like that. The implication is that Fermi concluded that the life must destroy itself before it can leave it's solar system. But he never made an assumption like that. In fact, the paradox is, well, a paradox, becouse he couldn't make an assumption like that.

Then you said something like that:

I don't consider the fermi paradox as particularly strong. It seems to assume a biological imperative to expand life into every available area. Which I don't think is the case. We can, right now, get to alpha centauri in about 40 - 80 years. But we haven't. Because why would we?

To which I responded with my own post about how you seem to assume how all life behaves the same way. Becouse that's what is said above. Or am I misreading something? I mean, for me it looks like you said, that since we don't explore Alpha Centauri right now, despite having capability to do so, then all biological life is probably not that explorative. But you can't just go ahead and say all life behaves this way.

This is also why I don't think you're right by assuming that "Fermi's Paradox isn't particularly strong." That's becouse Fermi's Paradox assumes nothing. All live behaves diffrently and all it takes is one species to fill the galaxy.

WHAT COMES AFTER AND HOW LONG THEY COULD TECHNICALLY CONTINUE IS IRRELEVANT.

It is very relevant. Let's say that one billion years ago, there was an alien nation (not a species; just one nation of alien, a fragment of a species) that is very explorative. Within a million years it filled the entire galaxy. One billion years ago.

So what happened? They couldn't just die out. We're talking about entire galaxy. What could killl a whole technological galactic-scale civilization but left Earth intact? That's the problem, if during all this time even one civilization have filled the galaxy, the galaxy should have stayed filled.

Again, I'm only discussing the paradox; I'm not interested in the rest.

This is probably the biggest problem I have with Person012345 statement. He just looks at empty skies, looks at Earth and says: oh, so all those alien species must be exactly the same and meet exactly the same end: self-termination before they could spread. I just can't accept that.

I'm sorry, are you reading a different discussion to the one i am? I've already said I don't believe the fermi paradox to be a strong argument against the existence of aliens for the exact reason you outlined above.

Please go back and read the conversation. I'm not supporting the fermi paradox. Someone mis-labelled my point as the fermi paradox.

my point is about the sheer improbability of two random periods of 10,000 years coinciding or overlapping in a galaxy that is 14 billion years old. Go back and read the link someone posted. The reason I am taking the 10,000 years is quite a simple one - the game, by default, is set in the year 2025. That means that humans have been around for about 10,000 years before going trans-newtonian. It is thus reasonable to assume that aliens would take a similar amount of time. Yes this is an assumption, but it's the only one we have evidence for. And even if some were slow, that's not going to matter. WHAT COMES AFTER AND HOW LONG THEY COULD TECHNICALLY CONTINUE IS IRRELEVANT.

Even if we don't take the default time of aurora, i highly doubt people regularly type a 6 figure number into the start date box. If we're talking thousands of years post-current-date, the same point still applies.

If there was even a 0.1% deviation in the amount of time (I think that's what that link said) it takes life to involve intelligence on two otherwise identical planets in the same solar system, they would never even meet each other as two pre/early trans-newtonian civilizations. to the more advanced civ they would find apes when they looked, and 10,000 years later (remember that life would have been evolving for about 4.5 billion years already, an extra 10k is nothing in the grand scheme of things) the less advance civs would find a highly advanced race. When you put this on a galactic scale, it's so unlikely that any 2 modern age civs would co-exist at the same time within reachable range.

I'm not sure how much clearer I can make myself. it's now up to you to ask questions you might have about what I'm saying if you don't understand where I'm coming from.

The best we can theoretically do at the moment is 130 years, and there are numerous engineering problems to be solved even with that. Lastly is the little problem of our rocket violating every nuclear and space treaty ever signed. And all that is just to move a 300 ton probe, we are a long way off from moving anything geniunely meaningful between the stars, though I do believe it is ultimately possible.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Orion_%28nuclear_propulsion%29#Interstellar_missions

44 years at 0.1c, assuming saving fuel for slowdown it could take up to twice that. Using thermonuclear weapons. The designs for the orion that we can build right now could potentially be very meaningful. Your point about the treaty doesn't do anything to dispute what I said.

I believe the 130 figure is based on atomic weaponry. We of course have more efficient bombs than those now (as it mentiones below the table, my figure comes from later studies considering thermonuclear weapons).

Or FTL is impossible and interstellar colonization is simply infeasible, leaving species to only ever exist on their home planet.

Example - How many people would sign up for a generational ship knowing they'll never see the planet they're going to and that everyone involved may die if they have too many breakdowns over the course of the trip (or are exceptionally unlucky and hit a small rock en route). Further, who's going to fund the trip? The investment is a total write-off if you stay behind as you'll never hear from the ship again and shipments of goods between colonies at sublight speeds are unlikely in the extreme, so the people taking the trip are almost certainly the ones who will need to fund it. But then you've got the issue of it being massively expensive, and that the people who can afford it are the least likely to be interested in doing it - Why would I spend the rest of my days in a giant metal coffin so that my children can maybe explore a new world when I can use my billions of dollars to provide a life of leisure for myself and them on Earth?

TLDR; races evolve and spend their entire existence in a single solar system, never overrunning the galaxy.

I don't consider the fermi paradox as particularly strong. It seems to assume a biological imperative to expand life into every available area. Which I don't think is the case. We can, right now, get to alpha centauri in about 40 - 80 years. But we haven't. Because why would we? We don't know what's there, it would just be a huge waste. There's no reason to think an alien species would not behave similarly. There is something to be said for the idea as applied to radio signals - we've so far been able to detect diddly squat in the way of intelligent-appearing radio signals, and one would assume that aliens would at least be trying that much.

On the other hand, the thing that I mentioned, not the fermi paradox, is what pretty much put the final nail in the coffin of any ideas I might have had regarding finding intelligent life in my mind. Even just communication through radio signals and such.

The fermi paradox is thus:
The Fermi paradox (Fermi's paradox or Fermi-paradox) is the apparent contradiction between high estimates of the probability of the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations and the lack of evidence for, or contact with, such civilizations.[1]

It says that life tends to expand and that we haven't met it contradicts the high estimates of probability. The implication, therefore, is that intelligent life doesn't tend to last very long. I'm aware that's not the only resolution of it, but whatever.

Regardless, it has nothing to do with what I'm saying.

Far from it.

Generally any race with even limited inclination for exploration would overrun (as in: colonise every single planet) the galaxy within less than a million years, even assuming FTL travel is impossible. Considering our galaxy is eight billions years old and according to some equations life is pretty common (even intelligent one) the galaxy should be colonised a thousand times over - including Earth.

So where are all those civilizations? The paradox is more or less as follows: if intelligent aliens can exist, why haven't we found evidence of their existance? Becouse based on probabilities, if alien intelligence can exist at all, it should already have existed and filled the galaxy.

Note: I was going from my head, for more details consult wikipedia, I'm sure they'll have something on this.

Exactly. And therefore, it is reasoned, intelligent life must destroy itself before it gets the chance to overrun the galaxy.

I'm obligated to provide the following: http://www.projectrho.com/public_html/rocket/aliens.php

Yeah, thanks, that's pretty much what I'm talking about.