Author Topic: C# Aurora Changes Discussion  (Read 450012 times)

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Offline Hazard

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Re: C# Aurora Changes Discussion
« Reply #1980 on: December 24, 2018, 05:19:25 AM »
That is a very good point which I hadn't considered. I wonder if radiation is affected in the same way (is it 'diluted' on large planets)? Fortunately, two of the people I recruited for my department at work are nuclear physicists who spent time in Chernobyl and Fukushima, so I will ask :)

Well, yes? I mean, your colleagues would probably know better than me, but you're basically dealing with a chemical contaminant that'll concentrate at the location of the spill. While that can be a large area, compared to a planet it's rather small.

Nuclear bombs in Aurora are likely to be fairly high altitude detonations so the fall out would be spread over a large area, and with enough nukes in a general bombardment you'll end up with a roughly equal distribution in any relevant areas anyway.

I have a similar question about overall combat duration of ground combat turns: If you have a 6h per turn, base 20% per hit chance.
If you assume units can kill each other when hit, that means after 30h the formations caused 100% casualties. If you assume 2% kill chance from fortification/units surviving hits, you end up at 12.5 days until you reach 100% casualties.

That is nowhere near the time scale a rescue fleet could arrive, or you could bring reserves. I feel what is missing is a mechanic that gives you varying combat intensity. Ground combat usually happens in offensives, followed by periods of reorganization and stabilization where troops are sitting in place and not fighting much.

Most battles you are likely to face in Aurora appear to me to be regiment sized or smaller against roughly equal sizes. With modern day coordination and transport technology you can decide a battle in about that time unless at least one side really digs or avoids confrontation and the terrain favours that approach.

I suspected something like that on reading it. As long as failure chance and collateral damage is sufficiently high, and STO weapons sufficiently effective I don't think the different timescales cause a major problem either.

The only situation I can think of where it might be causing balancing issues is in the case of military only targets, like forward bases that lack civilian support or resources of value ( basically an attacker don't care about collateral damage ). But this is probable just a situation where strategy and doctrine needs to adapt such that military targets are defended by sufficient amounts of STO weapons and/or space weapons.

The key question in my mind here is: Is there ever going to be a point in going through the extra effort to try and invade a military only target using land forces? How do the chances look to be able to capture the installations intact.

There is and there isn't.

What you are dealing with in space combat is an island hopping campaign, even if those islands are asteroids and planets. This means that when you are waging a war and are considering targets you have to sincerely ask the question of 'do I actually need to take this place, or can I skip it?' Because if you can isolate a target, any target, and it can only function as a forward operating/deployment base when supplied, any target that is not supplied is not helping the enemy war effort, and you only need to take such targets if you want to make use of the facilities yourself. Or they've got Deep Space Tracking facilities that you want to blind.

You always want to attack a place with civilians because that's a work force that could be turned towards supplying the enemy with troops and ships, but asteroid based military personnel only repair station #21 is a place you can forget about once you clear out any defending ships. Any guns it has simply don't have the range to be dangerous.

That, if anything, is the best argument I can see for the ability to launch sensor equipped missiles from ground launchers, as a properly equipped long range space denial ground unit paired with a few deep space tracking stations can effectively constrain enemy movement by occasionally dropping a few warheads on poorly escorted supply ships, effectively forcing an enemy to engage or keep eating losses.
 

Offline Jorgen_CAB

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Re: C# Aurora Changes Discussion
« Reply #1981 on: December 25, 2018, 06:51:07 AM »
I have a similar question about overall combat duration of ground combat turns: If you have a 6h per turn, base 20% per hit chance.
If you assume units can kill each other when hit, that means after 30h the formations caused 100% casualties. If you assume 2% kill chance from fortification/units surviving hits, you end up at 12.5 days until you reach 100% casualties.

That is nowhere near the time scale a rescue fleet could arrive, or you could bring reserves. I feel what is missing is a mechanic that gives you varying combat intensity. Ground combat usually happens in offensives, followed by periods of reorganization and stabilization where troops are sitting in place and not fighting much.

With one post arguing ground combat takes too long and another arguing it doesn't take long enough, I must be somewhere in the ball park :)

The are two considerations that will slow it down. Firstly, when you run out of supply, you only attack at 1/4 normal and with longer engagements, the combatants will run out of supply. I might even reduce the 25% rate depending on play test. When new supplies arrive, that simulates an offensive. The defender could hoard supplies when the attacker is out of supplies to await such an 'offensive', or take advantage while it has supplies and the other side doesn't (counter-attack).

The second consideration is that your combat example only lasts 12.5 days if one side doesn't take casualties at all (also assuming the 2% is accurate and no one runs out of supplies). With both sides taking casualties, it reduces each sides ability to harm the other so it will take a lot longer than 12.5 days if the sides are relatively even.

If one side has a large superiority and the terrain is favourable (Desert Storm), then it could be over relatively quickly. If the planet is jungle mountain and you are attacking fully fortified infantry or static weapons, that 20% chance to hit is now 0.14% (plus you have to penetrate armour and kill them). You are going to be there for months or even years and you will run out of supply at some point as well, which will slow it down even more. Plus, given the long time frame, both sides probably will reinforce.

With the variety of terrain, supply constraints and the scope for many different situations, we should have some relatively fast ground combat and some that will require many years to resolve.

I think that time and the intensity of combat should be related to the size of the of the forces and the size of the infrastructure being defended.

A large army defending a highly populated world with vast cities doted over a vast planet with favorable terrain should take months if not years to subdue even with relatively superior forces.

If you invade a small asteroid defended with a strong force but in a relatively small area and in a confined space the combat should be over relatively quickly even if the forces are relatively large, quicker if they are small.

There is a huge difference in the logistical and administration of large formations that need to coordinate combat effort over a vast planetary area.

If you have say one division that defend on a "normal" planet and you have a population of a couple of million people it would be vastly different than if you have 20 divisions defending a planet with 2 billion inhabitants even if the invading forces are roughly the same in strength relative the defenses. The latter is way more complicated and require a much more maneuvering and going from house to house to root out enemy resistance, not to mention civilian resistance cells constantly harassing your supply lines etc...

So... some sort of modifier to the to hit and also supply use for wars the simply require more time an lower intensity seem appropriate. This would mean that some battles might be quick and very costly in supplies while others take ages but also drain supplies much slower as well. You can also have different rates at which supply is consumed for different types of conflicts. For example the more population there is the more supply need to be consumed in relation to the intensity, signifying the resistance of the civilians as an example.

There can be other considerations as well which I have not thought about.

But at least in my opinion only having ONE unified intensity on conflict is not really suitable or practical for all types of conflicts. It is simply not practical to have all forces engaged in conflicts all the time and varying intensity could reflect this quite well.
 
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Offline King-Salomon

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Re: C# Aurora Changes Discussion
« Reply #1982 on: December 25, 2018, 08:04:08 AM »
The key question in my mind here is: Is there ever going to be a point in going through the extra effort to try and invade a military only target using land forces? How do the chances look to be able to capture the installations intact.

Yes, this is my main concern as well in terms of balance. I've tried to make that possible by having minimal collateral damage if you use relatively low level forces (infantry rather than heavy artillery) but I will monitor in play test and adjust that collateral damage accordingly. I considered an option for each side to accept a penalty in in general effectiveness if they wish to reduce collateral damage. Something on the lines of heavier weapons firing less frequently to simulate more careful target selection, but you can effectively do that already by moving those heavier weapons into rear echelon or not assigning artillery to support, so I probably won't bother.

Yes that would be my main concern too - it should pay off to invest the capital & time to train ground units and to invade a planet/body instead of just "bomb it to stone age and flatten it into a disc" ... if someone wants to go the "cheap&quick" way OK... but if someone wants to pay for it in time&money he should be able to benefit from his trouble (if all goes well and not too catastrophic) - investing in ground troops wouldn't make any sense if using them would get the same nuclear hellhouse as a planetary bombardment from the beginning...
 

Offline Jorgen_CAB

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Re: C# Aurora Changes Discussion
« Reply #1983 on: December 25, 2018, 08:23:23 AM »
It doesn't seem like orbital bombardment is that effective and since firing weapons now also cost supplies as they break down once in a while there will always be a cost for doing so.

I guess the question will be how important it is to destroy or capture a specific installation. Do you dare leaving it even if it is isolated. If the enemy manage to resupply it might be a big problem for you, perhaps even a catastrophe to your strategic objectives.

So... garrison bases with cheap infantry who can hold their own against orbital bombardment for a long time might not be a huge investment in comparison, especially not if you have enough STO weapons to make orbital bombardment without forces to suppress the STO properly very costly.

You can also hide fighters at ground bases and these certainly could be a problem if you leave these bases able to harass your supply lines.

Garrisons and ground to space weapons should mainly be a way to deter the enemy, not to directly make places impossible to invade. Just enough to make it take time and effort not to bypass them and give enough time and respite for a defensive force to be formed and engage the now more known enemy and its forces.

Forcing an opponent to waste resources and time on either ground or bombardment effort are going to impact their ability to conduct space dominance operations. This should see an increasing difficulty in invading as oppose to defending areas of space. So attacking should need allot more energy and resources than defending.

Just bombarding an installation from space should take much longer than invading it in general, sure allot of stuff will be destroyed from bombardment but you should be able to repair given enough time after such bombardment if the place is not invaded and left to recover.
« Last Edit: December 25, 2018, 08:28:26 AM by Jorgen_CAB »
 

Offline Marski

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Re: C# Aurora Changes Discussion
« Reply #1984 on: December 25, 2018, 09:50:33 AM »
A genocidial race would just vaporize it all with nuclear bombardment, thought. And worry about the mess later.
 

Offline King-Salomon

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Re: C# Aurora Changes Discussion
« Reply #1985 on: December 25, 2018, 10:05:55 AM »
"Just bombarding an installation from space should take much longer than invading it in general, sure allot of stuff will be destroyed from bombardment but you should be able to repair given enough time after such bombardment if the place is not invaded and left to recover."

Not sure I can follow you there... bombarding a target to dust is really quick and cheap... especially with the kind of weapons we are talking about... fighting on the ground takes much much longer...

to bomb the whole of Japan back into stone age 1945 would "just" have needed days/weeks (if the US would have the number of bombs available which they did not - but in C# the attacker would have within his fleet)) but an invasion of the Japanese main islands would have resulted in fighting for a year minimum and would have been really expensive in terms of deaths and equipment...

bombarding - especially with nuclear missiles - should be really quick, really dirty and really devastating... but destroying a target from orbit should for sure be much more quickly than successfully invading it against opposition
 

Offline Barkhorn

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Re: C# Aurora Changes Discussion
« Reply #1986 on: December 25, 2018, 11:48:57 AM »

Nuclear bombs in Aurora are likely to be fairly high altitude detonations so the fall out would be spread over a large area, and with enough nukes in a general bombardment you'll end up with a roughly equal distribution in any relevant areas anyway.
Fallout is primarily created by dirt and debris being lofted into the fireball, it doesn't come from the bomb itself.  Airbursts disperse minimal fallout in real life.  So I would think they should not cause much fallout.  Although if you're nuking futuristic fortifications, maybe you're using ground bursts?
 

Online Kurt

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Re: C# Aurora Changes Discussion
« Reply #1987 on: December 25, 2018, 04:05:32 PM »
A genocidial race would just vaporize it all with nuclear bombardment, thought. And worry about the mess later.

The Republic's spokesperson officially denies that cobalt-encased enhanced radiation weapons were recently used against Dregluk cities.  She then stated, however, "They deserve it, though."

Kurt
 

Offline Scandinavian

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Re: C# Aurora Changes Discussion
« Reply #1988 on: December 25, 2018, 09:01:53 PM »
Not sure I can follow you there... bombarding a target to dust is really quick and cheap... especially with the kind of weapons we are talking about... fighting on the ground takes much much longer...

to bomb the whole of Japan back into stone age 1945 would "just" have needed days/weeks (if the US would have the number of bombs available which they did not - but in C# the attacker would have within his fleet)) but an invasion of the Japanese main islands would have resulted in fighting for a year minimum and would have been really expensive in terms of deaths and equipment...

bombarding - especially with nuclear missiles - should be really quick, really dirty and really devastating... but destroying a target from orbit should for sure be much more quickly than successfully invading it against opposition
That depends entirely on the nature of the target and the weapons.

For conventional weapons (and we can probably include orbital direct-fire weapons in this), engagements basically come in four varieties: Undirected counterforce bombardments, ground-directed fire support, terror bombing, and assassination.

Undirected counterforce bombardment against even minimally prepared ground forces is a way of punctuating your press releases and diplomatic communiques with explosions, not a serious military tool. The entire air campaign against Serbia during the wars of Yugoslav dissolution knocked out a mere handful of tanks, and this result is not atypical.

Ground-directed fire support is extremely effective at killing opposing forces, particularly vehicles and particularly on the defensive. The clearest demonstration of this recently was 2013-14 in Kobane, where the USAF chewed through a short brigade of Islamic State's only solid combat troops and all the expensive American hardware the Iraqi army left behind when it bugged out of Mosul. For offensive exploitation, however, you need infantry that is willing to take casualties, because you need someone moving forward to provide fire direction. This was one of the problems the IDF had in 2006, and a major reason Hezbollah humiliated their expeditionary force.

Terror bombing kills a lot of civilians and causes a great deal of expensive property damage, but not really enough to materially degrade the ability of the population to sustain a war effort. Even weeks of sustained carpet bombing with chemical and conventional weapons was insufficient to wipe out Fallujah, Mosul, or Raqqah, which still had to be taken through ground assault. (This is not a USAF problem either; the Russian air force could not bomb Grozny or East Aleppo into submission either, despite pounding most of the buildings to rubble.) Similarly, studies of the carpet bombing campaigns of the second world war tend to conclude that they cost more to conduct than it did to repair the damage done by them.

Finally, assassination is perfectly feasible, but depends heavily on the quality of one's targeting intelligence. We've seen both extremely precise targeting of militia leaders, and the occasional wedding or funeral getting blown up. Either way, it's not really in scope for Aurora - it doesn't have a sufficiently sophisticated political model to properly simulate (counter-)insurgency warfare.

Once you break out the nuclear warheads, the feasibility of undirected counterforce bombardment and terror bombing increases, but it's still not a simple exercise to glass a major planetary population. Assuming one point of missile warhead strength equals 10 kt (making Little Boy somewhere between 1.5 and 2 points), and a typical early to mid game warhead is 15 points, you'd need ten to fifteen of those to blanket a mid-sized city like Berlin with blasts that will reliably knock over sturdily constructed buildings. If we assume that one warhead point is about 100 kt, you'll still need six impacts (though if you're satisfied with killing the people and leaving about half the buildings standing, you can make do with three). And Berlin is not even in the top 100 cities of the world.

To comprehensively demolish the industry of a homeworld, you'd need somewhere between one and ten thousand strength 15 impacts, depending on your assumptions about how warhead strength translates, and the distribution of industry across the population. This can be done, but it's not a trivial expenditure of ordnance for an early- to mid-game empire. And to wipe out the population, including dispersed rural communities, you would need far more (though the collapse of industrial society resulting from tearing out the major industrial centers may well take care of that for you).

And counterforce bombardment remains non-trivial, particularly against dispersed or well prepared infantry and static units. You'll often have to literally dig them out of fortified positions, which means putting multiple impacts on top of them with fairly high precision. It can be done, but again, not a trivial exercise.

The rules outlined upthread seem to capture these realities reasonably well. If you're willing to simply pave over the planet, you can with reasonable ease nuke it hard enough that it becomes worthless to the defender (which means any ground forces holding it are simply eating maintenance while providing no value in return). But if you want to eliminate a troop concentration, then you need to invest the planet with at least some ground forces to provide fire direction. And if you want to take the planet mostly intact, you need to do it on the ground, with relatively light troops and minimal orbital fire support.
 
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Offline QuakeIV

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Re: C# Aurora Changes Discussion
« Reply #1989 on: December 26, 2018, 12:15:45 AM »
I thought a power 1 blast was equal to a megaton?  I could be off but that was my vague understanding.
 

Offline Jorgen_CAB

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Re: C# Aurora Changes Discussion
« Reply #1990 on: December 26, 2018, 04:34:09 AM »
Terror bombing of population is a different thing than destroying military installations that obviously will be fortified and hidden on a planet surface. If a military base is on an atmosphere free (or low atmosphere) moon/planet or similar then nuclear blasts will not really be that effective either.

If then said defenses have a good deal of STO weapons you can not bombard the defenses indiscriminately either for fear of getting shot back, ships tend to be allot more fragile than ground based defenses.

In certain scenarios indiscriminate bombarding might be the best option if you don't care for capturing some installation, but if you want to assure everything is destroyed you still might need troops on the ground.
 

Offline Jorgen_CAB

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Re: C# Aurora Changes Discussion
« Reply #1991 on: December 26, 2018, 04:42:38 AM »
I thought a power 1 blast was equal to a megaton?  I could be off but that was my vague understanding.

I'm pretty sure that one point of damage in the game are not that powerful. A simple Gauss cannon does one point of damage and a ship with no armour will take a fair amount of damage before it is destroyed.

If you presume that planetary infrastructure also can be built with lots of new materials for many different reasons just like civilian ships then destroying the infrastructure will become more than difficult, not to mention military installations and fortresses.
 

Offline King-Salomon

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Re: C# Aurora Changes Discussion
« Reply #1992 on: December 26, 2018, 04:57:55 AM »
I'm pretty sure that one point of damage in the game are not that powerful. A simple Gauss cannon does one point of damage and a ship with no armour will take a fair amount of damage before it is destroyed.

On the other side should a conventional missile - as started with in a non-tn-start and with silos - be a equivalent of today's atomic intercontinental missiles with more than 100 megaton each... so 100-200 should be plenty to destroy 98% of earths industry in a single strike and make the planet lifeless...

I guess that a comparison of "damage" is not as easy as it seems when you compair damage to starships in the game... but that is OK, it IS a game and it cannot be 100% logical in all aspects..

also it is a difference if you see in-game missiles as "strategic ICBM" or tactical nuclear weapons...
 

Offline Steve Walmsley

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Re: C# Aurora Changes Discussion
« Reply #1993 on: December 26, 2018, 06:43:52 AM »
There is no direct equivalent for missile damage points. I've deliberately avoided having kilotons or megatons (or some form of Megajoule equivalent for beam weapons) to aid in the suspension of disbelief. Being too precise can raise logical questions that we don't really need to answer.

However, I would say that 1 point is definitely on the low end for known nuclear yields. Several smaller bombs are generally more useful than one large bomb of the same total yield, unless you need to destroy a target that is hardened against nuclear attack.
 

Offline Scandinavian

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Re: C# Aurora Changes Discussion
« Reply #1994 on: December 26, 2018, 07:18:50 AM »
On the other side should a conventional missile - as started with in a non-tn-start and with silos - be a equivalent of today's atomic intercontinental missiles with more than 100 megaton each...
They don't have hundreds of megaton each.

The largest missile payload ever known to have been deployed on a missile is 25 MT Soviet R-36 (NATO designation SS-9 Mod 2). The largest known US missile payload is the 9 MT Titan II. Both well short of 100 MT, let alone several hundred.

The largest warhead presently known or credibly speculated in service is either the Chinese Dong Feng 5A, a variable-yield warhead that can be dialed up to 3 MT, or the NATO Trident MIRV system at 8 times half a megaton.

(All figures from MissileMap: https://nuclearsecrecy.com/missilemap/ )

Depending on your Conventional Start configuration, how many Tridents you think it would take to wipe out industrial civilization, and whether terror bombing suffers targeting penalties for rubble like collateral damage does, you can get these numbers to confess to anywhere between 10 kT or 2 MT per missile warhead point (I have the math if people are interested, but have cut it for length). But as Steve just noted, none of this stuff scales neatly anyway, so while we can sort of estimate the yield of different Aurora warhead strengths, those estimates may depend on the use case and in any case are not necessarily going to let you fit a nice function of yield as a function of warhead size.

Which does raise the interesting question of whether rubble applies to terror bombing the same way it does to collateral damage. That is not clear from the relevant rules post.
 
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