Post by: Steve Walmsley on October 11, 2006, 01:04:15 PM
A new Artemis II is laid down with an estimated completion date of August 2050.
27th January 2049
The gravitational survey of Thasos is completed, revealing one new jump point. All four ships of the First Gravitational Survey Squadrons converge on its location.
8th February 2049
Menelaus transits the new jump point in Thasos and discovers a system with a K5-V primary and three class L brown dwarves. The primary is orbited by eight rocky planets, six of them terrestrial size, and four gas giants. One planet has a breathable atmosphere as well as acceptable gravity and an extensive ice sheet but it is far too cold at -140 degrees. The first dwarf orbits at six billion kilometers with its own small planetary system while the second and third orbit as a pair 450 million kilometers apart at a distance of 180 billion kilometers from the primary. Rear Admiral Ayres names the system Calliste and orders his squadron to begin their survey.
22nd February 2049
Our sources on the Gitanyow homeworld report that the Gitanyow have launched a second gravitational survey ship and have begun work on a cruiser-sized hull that may be their first jump-capable ship.
27th February 2049
Commonwealth scientists complete their research into improving the construction rate of our shipyards. This should result in a fifteen percent reduction in build times. As agreed with the Gitanyow, our scientists now turn their attention to fighter speed.
2nd March 2049
The Fast Colony Fleet returns to Earth and unloads 240 tons of Gallicite. With a regular supply of the mineral now established, the Gallicite shortage is effectively over and our shipbuilding, refitting and overhaul program can start to return to normal. Currently under construction are the jump gate construction ship Argo, two Artemis II colony ships and three Themistocles II class freighters, one of which will be ready in the next few days. Helios, one of the Apollo class missile cruisers, is undergoing an overhaul.
An Artemis II that was constructed in 2045 is removed from the colony fleet for its first overhaul. In addition, the four Achilles class gravitational survey ships currently in mothballs are taken into the shipyards to be upgraded to the Achilles B (shown below). The primary changes are the addition of a third ion engine and a 200% increase in supply capacity.
Achilles B class Survey Ship 2250 tons 200 Crew 551 BP Signature 45-180
4000 km/s Armour 1 Shields 0-0 Sensors 6/0/3/0 Damage Control 0-0
Supply 600
Ion Engine (3) Armour 0 Exp 5%
Passive Sensor S2-6 (1) Strength 6 Detect Signature 10: 0.6m km Detect Signature 100: 6m km
Gravitational Survey Sensors (3) 3 Survey Points
The Fast Colony Fleet begins loading seven newly constructed automated mines, two manned mines and 200,000 colonists.
7th March 2049
A Themistocles II class is constructed on Earth. As the Fast Colony Fleet has only just left, the freighter is loaded with a tracking station and sent in pursuit. A new design, the Menelaus B survey cruiser, is laid down in the available shipyard. The original Menelaus, currently leading the First Gravitational Survey Squadron, has been a success and the newer version is a minor update with improved speed and range, allowing it to keep pace with the Udaloy II and Artemis B survey ship designs. It is also ten percent smaller than its predecessor as the cargo hold has been removed. Both the original and B versions are shown below.
Menelaus class Jump Cruiser 5000 tons 400 Crew 982 BP Signature 100-360
3600 km/s JR 3-50 Armour 1 Shields 0-0 Sensors 15/0/6/0 Damage Control 0-0
Cargo 5000 Supply 600
Ion Engine (6) Armour 0 Exp 5%
Passive Sensor S5-15 (1) Strength 15 Detect Signature 10: 1.5m km Detect Signature 100: 15m km
Advanced Gravitational Sensors (3) 6 Survey Points
Menelaus B class Jump Cruiser 4500 tons 405 Crew 984 BP Signature 90-360
4000 km/s JR 3-50 Armour 1 Shields 0-0 Sensors 15/0/6/0 Damage Control 0-0
Supply 800
Ion Engine (6) Armour 0 Exp 5%
Passive Sensor S5-15 (1) Strength 15 Detect Signature 10: 1.5m km Detect Signature 100: 15m km
Advanced Gravitational Sensors (3) 6 Survey Points
29th April 2049
The gravitational survey of Calliste is completed. No new jump points are found. Rear Admiral Ayres orders the squadron to head for the jump point to Thasos. Once assembled, the squadron will head back toward Thebes.
13th May 2049
The four Achilles survey ships are refitted to the B version and two new Themistocles II class freighters are completed. Both freighters will join the Fast Colony Fleet when it returns to Earth in a few days. The Achilles will remain in mothballs for now.
16th May 2049
We now have twelve Themistocles II class freighters but only five colony ships, one of which is undergoing overhaul. This is creating a situation where we can transport more factories and mines to Thebes than colonists to man them. Therefore, once our construction factories complete their current task of building more jump gate components, they will begin work on converting manned mines to automated mines. While the total cost of building a manned mine and then converting it to an automated mine is 13% more expensive than simply building an automated mine in the first place, the manpower shortage on Thebes necessitates a rapid increase in our number of automated mines. The conversion process requires only 63% of the new build cost of an automated mine.
As the infrastructure on Thebes can now support a population of 6.6 million and the population is only five million, the construction factories on Thebes will also begin conversion work, albeit at a much slower pace than on Earth.
19th May 2049
The Fast Colony Fleet leaves Earth orbit with 200,000 colonists, three automated mines and nine manned mines.
28th May 2049
The Asian Alliance appears to be still desperate for Gallicite. They have created new trade offers on the planetary mineral market, offering Sorium at 2-1 and Tritanium at 4-1. Existing offers include Corbomite and Vendarite at 2.5-1. At the moment, our only potential shortage is Mercassium as we require almost 400 tons for every Artemis and only 1300 tons remain in our stockpile. There is no Mercassium on Thebes or Toronto so this will become a problem in the near future. We also have no source of Vendarite or Corundium, although we have over 5000 tons of each stockpiled on Earth. While we do not want the Asian Alliance to be strong, we also do not want them to be desperate so Prince Arthur allows an exchange of 200 tons of Gallicite for 500 tons of Vendarite. The skill of our Marco Polo trade team reduces this to 184 tons of Gallicite for the 500 tons of Vendarite.
15th June 2049
A second Atlas is laid down. At some point within the next few months, it is likely we will need to setup new mining colonies in the systems near Thebes as our mineral stockpiles begin to run low, so a fast jump cruiser will be required to escort the freighters transporting the mines.
18th June 2049
The Islamic Alliance have laid down a new hull estimated at 5000 tons. It is possible that they have completed their jump drive research and this is their first jump-capable ship.
5th July 2049
The First Gravitational Survey Squadron returns to Earth. Menelaus immediately enters the shipyards for an overhaul and for a refit to the Menelaus B class. Although the three Udaloys were overhauled only two years ago, they enter the shipyards too as they are not going anywhere until Menelaus is available.
18th July 2049
The Jump Gate Construction Ship Argo is launched from our orbital shipyards. Once the Fast Colony Fleet returns to Earth and five freighters are available, her first mission will be to establish a jump gate on each side of the Sol
Post by: Michael Sandy on October 11, 2006, 02:12:21 PM
I think that using Theban construction to convert Manned mines to automated mines is a mistake. If they have excess construction capability, it should go into starting the shipyard. Going from Manned to automated costs Duranium, something that is a bit limited right now.
It is a natural decision for the Commonwealth to make, as there is a certain inertia in decision making processes.
Converting manned mines on Earth to ship makes much more sense, as they have excess construction capabilities at the moment.
Also, I have a question about the mechanics for discovering alien civilizations:
A huge number of double and triple and more systems have been discovered. The far systems are generally not explored, but they have planets. It should be only a matter of time before a civilization is discovered orbiting the further star. So far, both alien civilizations have been discovered within easy reach of the warp point.
Even at 180 Billion miles, communication exchanges could still be accomplished. That is, what, 16,000 light minutes, 11 light days or so?
edit: Oops, kilometers, not miles. whatever
Post by: Michael Sandy on October 11, 2006, 02:32:12 PM
Does the Commonwealth now have sufficient Jump gate components for both sides of the first warp point in the chain to Thebes? If so, that will add some flexibility in terms of colony and freighter schedules, which in turn allows more flexibility in terms of shipyard space too. If ships are leaving and arriving throughout the season, when a new ship is completed, there should be a newly arriving ship that could be refitted.
Of course the Commonwealth will probably just get the bugs out of their program to most efficiently expand and exploit Thebes just as a new confrontation with an alien race forces them to revise their production strategy.
And, oh bonus? If the new race proves hostile, the Asians may get a new homeworld after all.
Post by: Michael Sandy on October 11, 2006, 03:01:51 PM
Post by: rmcrowe on October 11, 2006, 03:16:09 PM
robert
Post by: MWadwell on October 11, 2006, 06:12:41 PM
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
A couple of comments:
I think that using Theban construction to convert Manned mines to automated mines is a mistake. If they have excess construction capability, it should go into starting the shipyard. Going from Manned to automated costs Duranium, something that is a bit limited right now.
It is a natural decision for the Commonwealth to make, as there is a certain inertia in decision making processes.
Converting manned mines on Earth to ship makes much more sense, as they have excess construction capabilities at the moment.
The problem is, that the shortage of Duranium will affect converting manned mines to automated mines regardless of where they are located - on Earth or on Thebes.
But let's have a look at what is needed to address this shortage....
To mine more Duranium, you need either:
1) automated mines; OR
2) manned mines PLUS free population.
As there is a shortage of free population on Thebes, using automated mines is probably the best solution to the duranium shortage.
Perhaps a better solution is to use a combination of both manned and automated mines. However, the problem with this solution is that at some point in time, you are going to need free population on Thebes for other items - such as shipyards/ordanance factories/etc.
Post by: Michael Sandy on October 11, 2006, 07:31:14 PM
Well, the difference is the limitation on shipping from Earth to Thebes. There is lots of capacity for shipping from Thebes to Earth.
What is limited is Theban manpower. So use Earth manpower in factories to free up Theban manpower for either mines or construction.
In order to alleviate the shipping bottleneck, the Commonwealth needs more (or faster) shipyards. Good timing on that tech advance, by the way. Rather than build a shipyard where it will be destroyed, the next shipyard pretty much has to be in Thebes.
So using Theban production to convert manned mines to automated is Theban production that could have gone to making a shipyard. On the other hand, by shipping automated mines and colonists, they boost the manpower available for Construction Factories, and therefore, faster shipyard building.
Post by: MWadwell on October 11, 2006, 08:48:42 PM
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
The difference is the limitation in shipping.
Well, the difference is the limitation on shipping from Earth to Thebes. There is lots of capacity for shipping from Thebes to Earth.
You are right in that there is a large limitation on shipping from Earth to Thebes - but the limitation is in the number of colonists - not in the amount of items (i.e. mines/factories).
For example, the Commonewealth has only 5 colony ships - but it has 12 freighters. And so the Commonwealth is in the situation where it can transport more items than the population needed to man the items....
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
What is limited is Theban manpower. So use Earth manpower in factories to free up Theban manpower for either mines or construction.
Agreed - which is why the Commonwealth is starting to automate the mines already on Thebes, as well as the mines being transported to Thebes.
Look at it this way - for every manned mine already on Thebes that is automated, frees up 50K colonists - exactly the same as if 50K colonists were sent to Thebes. (In fact, it frees up more population on Thebes, as when the population on Thebes increases, the percentage of population on Thebes devoted to service tasks also increases.....)
For example, using the approx 40 factories on Thebes to build infrastructure (using 320 BP for a population increase of 1.6M colonists - or approx 22 factories) leaves 18 factories free for automation/new construction. Using the 18 factories allows approximately 1.6 manned mines to be automated, freeing up an extra 80K colonists - or a effective increase of 5% on the number of free population (ignoring the increase in service population due to the extra 1.6M colonists. If this is taken into consideration, then the figure of 5% is actually on the low side....)
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
In order to alleviate the shipping bottleneck, the Commonwealth needs more (or faster) shipyards. Good timing on that tech advance, by the way. Rather than build a shipyard where it will be destroyed, the next shipyard pretty much has to be in Thebes.
Agreed - but for different reasons.
The next shipyards constructed has to be on Thebes, simply from the reason that any shipyard constructed on Earth will be destroyed when Nemesis arrives - not because Thebes is a better location. After all, from Thebes to Earth is only a 1 month trip!
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
So using Theban production to convert manned mines to automated is Theban production that could have gone to making a shipyard. On the other hand, by shipping automated mines and colonists, they boost the manpower available for Construction Factories, and therefore, faster shipyard building.
Building a shipyard on Thebes now, is not necessarily a good thing. Using the construction factories on Thebes to automate the manned mines is a way to increase the amount of infrastructure on Thebes while getting around the colonist shipping bottleneck.
At this point in time, the Commonwealth needs to get the most amount of infrastructure on Thebes as possible, while at the same time leaving enough free population to support the new items, AND leave enough free population to support other future items - such as shipyards....
Post by: Michael Sandy on October 11, 2006, 09:27:44 PM
However, I think that converting manned mines already on Thebes is a waste of effort. The goal, I think, should be to ship a mix of colonists, automated mines, and more construction factories because the Commonwealth is rapidly moving from resource limited in terms of growth to construction limited.
Construction factories on Earth can be gainfully employed converted manned mines to automated mines, building jump gate components, and building terraforming thingies.
As long as the increasing mines on Thebes can keep up with the Gallicite and Duranium the factories on Earth can be kept fully employed, I think. The Mercassium shortage has to be dealt with soon.
It seems that Aurora will continually be a game of trying to anticipate the next shortage but not going so overboard that you create a shortfall somewhere else.
Ideally, the Commonwealth needs enough Mercassium mines to produce 800 tons of Mercassium a year, or two colony ships a year, pretty soon. Mercassium demands will probably increase from there, especially as Theban construction gets fully online, producing more research bases eventually. The more population that can be shipped, the sooner more construction factories can be employed at Thebes, the sooner a new shipyard could be build there.
Also, with respect to shipyards, new production of colony ships and freighters should still be done at Earth. The first shipyard at Thebes could be used to save travel time for exploration ships needing refits, getting an extra couple of months of work per refit by doing them at Thebes.
So maybe the next colony convoy should just carry population to Thebes, with the automated factories going to somewhere that has Mercassium deposits.
Post by: MWadwell on October 12, 2006, 05:49:21 PM
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
I agree with building and shipping automated mines. That will mean that the extra manpower, as well as Theban population growth, can go into Construction.
However, I think that converting manned mines already on Thebes is a waste of effort. The goal, I think, should be to ship a mix of colonists, automated mines, and more construction factories because the Commonwealth is rapidly moving from resource limited in terms of growth to construction limited.
Well, we both agree that freeing up population on Thebes is necessary.
However, we disagree on automating the manned mines. But let me ask you this, what else can the factories be used for?
At present, only a touch more than half are necessary to build new infrastrtucture for the arriving colonists.
There is no need for ordanance factories, missile silos, or more construction factories (after all, there are plenty available on Earth). The only possible need is for a shipyard. And at the moment, there is only a temporary shipyard shortage (see more in another post).
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
Construction factories on Earth can be gainfully employed converted manned mines to automated mines, building jump gate components, and building terraforming thingies.
Agreed - with the exception of the Jump Gate components, and Terraforming Installations (TI) - at the moment there is no need for additional jump gate components (as the first gate will take 6 months to assemble), and with both Thebes and Herakleia both having a habitility of "1", there is no need for TI's either....
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
As long as the increasing mines on Thebes can keep up with the Gallicite and Duranium the factories on Earth can be kept fully employed, I think. The Mercassium shortage has to be dealt with soon.
There is plenty of Mercassium around - the only problem is that it has low accessability.... For example, in Mycenae (the system between Corinth and Thebes) there is over 18 million tons - but at accessibility 0.1.
To get the 800 tons of Mercassium/year from a planetary body like that requires 450 mines. Not very realistic.....
Of course, another option is to use the automated mines on the asteroids which have an accessibility of around 1.0. If you found asteroids with accessibility of 1.0, then you would only need 46 mines.....
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
It seems that Aurora will continually be a game of trying to anticipate the next shortage but not going so overboard that you create a shortfall somewhere else. :D
Post by: MWadwell on October 12, 2006, 06:11:20 PM
Quote from: "Steve Walmsley"
19th September 2049
In recent weeks, the Commonwealth has gone from a shortage of resources to a shortage of shipyard space. All twelve Commonwealth shipyards are active and a number of ships are waiting for overhauls. Two Artemis class colony ships, a Themistocles II class freighter, a Menelaus B survey jump cruiser and an Atlas jump-capable freighter are all under construction. Currently undergoing overhaul are Menelaus, Atlas, Agamemnon, an Udaloy II survey ship, an Artemis II colony ship and two Themistocles II freighters.
I think that the shipyard shortage is as a result of the "convoy" system imposed by the need to use jump carriers, and the recent shortage of Gallicite.
Looking in the ver 0.1 database, the Commonwealth has a fleet (not counting ships under construction) of 25 404 BP. As an overhaul takes up 20% of a ships BP, this translates into a fleet overhaul cost of 5080 BP.
Now, if a ship is overhauled every 3 years, this means that you need approx 1700 BP/year for the fleet overhaul program. The 12 Commonwealth shipyards produce approx 6300 BP/year - which means that the fleet overhaul prgram uses about 27% of the available shipyard BP.
That is what I mean by shipyard shortage is as a result of the "convoy" system/shortage of Gallicite - only 3 of the shipyards (or 25%) should be in use overhauling ships, but on the 19th of September, there were 7 ships undergoing overhauls, with others ships waiting for their turn.....
Perhaps now that the Gallicite shortage has been addressed, ships can be overhauled on a scheduled basis (rather than when Gallicite is available), which would result in a more consistent shipyard usage.
Post by: Michael Sandy on October 12, 2006, 06:28:59 PM
Then more colonists could be shipped to Thebes to man them, while the automated factories go somewhere with Mercassium.
As for Terraforming, I thought "colonizable" meant colonization costs were less than twice the optimum, not that the ratio was 1.
I am looking forward to the explanation as to why the Commonwealth is experiencing only a temporary shipyard shortage. Especially with the possibility of a new alien race and conflict.
Post by: Michael Sandy on October 12, 2006, 06:53:41 PM
1) Jump Gates all the way to Thebes and back. All ships go at their own speed, which result in dispersal, so ships do not all arrive at the same time.
2) Jump cruisers all the way to Thebes. This option is a bit faster to accomplish, but costs more supply.
I note that the speed differences are only going to get worse with the new engine technology in a couple of years, as well as IB engines that generate more power at the cost of being more likely to explode when hit.
If starting from scratch, building a whole bunch of minimum size jump cruisers (75 HS), with smaller freighters and colony ships might be more economical.
I like the idea of a jump cruiser with passive and active sensors, and huge supply, and maybe some shields. Not very fast, because it basically acts like a self-deploying jump gate, and just shuttles back and forth across a warp point.
The disadvantage is that you need more jump cruisers, the advantage is that you don't need to put so many engines on them, and you get continuous communications as a bonus.
Another advantage is that you can build somewhat slower freighters, saving gallicite, and faster colony ships, conserving mercassium.
A freighter with 50 HS of hold and 30 HS of engine will deliver approximately the same amount of cargo over time as one with 40 HS of hold and 40 HS of engine, but will be much cheaper.
A colony ship with 30 HS of corpiscle bays and 50 HS of engine will also be cheaper and deliver about the same number of colonists as 40 HS of corpiscle bays and 40 HS of engine.
But the convoy system forces less economical designs for both types of ships.
And the more freighters and colony ships you are talking about per jump cruiser, the greater the incentive to go with stationary deployment of jump cruisers.
In other news, I have discovered a major math error on my part.
I thought that if it would take 8.5 years for a single construction factory to build another construction factory, and 8.5 years for a single construction factory to build another mine that it would take 17 years to double the economy. Oops.
Multiply that by about .73 What factor did I ignore? Compound interest. How embarassing. 12.5 years to double, because each month new mines and factories would starting producing. (This assumes high accessibility Duranium, and population growth sufficient to supply the mines and factories)
Post by: TrueZuluwiz on October 12, 2006, 07:04:56 PM
Post by: MWadwell on October 12, 2006, 07:16:19 PM
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
The other useful thing that the construction factories on Thebes can do is make more construction factories.
2 points:
1) Why do you need more construction factories? The Commonwealth shortage is in minerals - not factories.
2) There is the issue of who are you going to get to man the factories.
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
Then more colonists could be shipped to Thebes to man them, while the automated factories go somewhere with Mercassium.
What is an "automated factory"? Do you mean an "automated mine" instead?
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
As for Terraforming, I thought "colonizable" meant colonization costs were less than twice the optimum, not that the ratio was 1.
From what I've remember, you can only place a population down on a planet with a habitability index of 4 or less. The index is also the cost multiplier w.r.t. the amount of infrastructure needed.
All Terraforming does, is to make one of the 2 changable factors (water and oxygen - as gravity is unchangable) more habitable, which then reduces the multiplier.
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
I am looking forward to the explanation as to why the Commonwealth is experiencing only a temporary shipyard shortage. Especially with the possibility of a new alien race and conflict.
The problem is, that due to the Gallicite shortage, there was a time period there where the shipyards were totally vacant. As a result, there is an inevitable period where the shipyards are overworked to try and catch up.....
Post by: Michael Sandy on October 12, 2006, 09:48:39 PM
As for the rest, Thebes' population will grow about 10% a year. That is 500,000 a year. And if the Commonwealth switches to just shipping colonists and automated mines, more population is available for production.
And if the automated mines are shifted to somewhere with Mercassium, there is endless employment for new freighters and colony ships.
And that endless appetite means that more refits will be needed after a while too, requiring, ta da, more shipyards.
So my thought is, if the mines now on Thebes are sufficient to meet the Gallicite part of construction and refit needs, it is time to shift the priority from increasing Gallicite mining to increasing Mercassium. Doing so, while continuing to ship colonists to Thebes, will allow Thebes to increase its construction factory capacity to the point that it becomes practical for Thebes to build a shipyard.
Thebes has something like 30 construction factories? Get it up to 100 and it could build a shipyard in little over three years with Construction Tech 2.
Post by: MWadwell on October 12, 2006, 11:04:09 PM
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
D'oh! Yeah, I meant automated mine.
Thought so.Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
As for the rest, Thebes' population will grow about 10% a year. That is 500,000 a year. And if the Commonwealth switches to just shipping colonists and automated mines, more population is available for production.
Agreed, the population growth of 10% is significant, however the most efficient was is to increase the automation, as increasing population results in a decreasing efficiency.
That is the point that I have been trying to make.
Consider this example, a planet of 5 million people, with 10 manned mines. Two options:
1) automate the 10 manned mines;
2) ship in 500K population.
For a planetary population of 5 million, it will be split the following ways:
Food (5%) - 250K
Service population (26.6%) - 1330K
Mines (10) - 500K
Free - 2920K
Now, let's have a look at the planetary population breakdown after the mines have been automated:
Food (5%) - 250K
Service population (26.6%) - 1330K
Mines (0) - 0K
Free - 3420K
The increase in free population is 500K.
And using the other option:
Food (5%) - 275K
Service population (27.2%) - 1500K
Mines (10) - 500K
Free - 3230K
The increase in free population is 310K.
As can be seen, you end up with more free people from automating, then from importing more people. This is due to the fact that the population devoted to the service population increases with the population size......
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
And if the automated mines are shifted to somewhere with Mercassium, there is endless employment for new freighters and colony ships.
Agreed - but the mines don't have to go far. For example, in Mycenae (the system next to Thebes and between Thebes and Earth), there is 35000 tons of Mercassium at an accessibility of 0.4.
And two jumps away from Thebes (in Piraeus), there is 59000 tons at an accessibility of 1.
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
And that endless appetite means that more refits will be needed after a while too, requiring, ta da, more shipyards.
Eventually, yes, there will be a need for more shipyards.
But at the moment nearly 73% of the shipyards are available.
Look at it this way, if you set the upper limit to shipyard usage devoted to overhauls to 50% (the remaining 50% devoted to refits and new construction), this would require another 25000 BP to raise the overhaul requirements to 50% - or about 5 years worth of production (or 14 Atermis II colony ships, PLUS 28 Thermistocles II freighters).
And so any new shipyards are NOT going to be needed for the next 5 years.....
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
So my thought is, if the mines now on Thebes are sufficient to meet the Gallicite part of construction and refit needs, it is time to shift the priority from increasing Gallicite mining to increasing Mercassium. Doing so, while continuing to ship colonists to Thebes, will allow Thebes to increase its construction factory capacity to the point that it becomes practical for Thebes to build a shipyard.
Agreed - I think that the main point of disagreement between us is the timeframe.
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
Thebes has something like 30 construction factories? Get it up to 100 and it could build a shipyard in little over three years with Construction Tech 2.
Agreed - which is why I think that the Commonwealth won't need a new shipyard for at least another 5 years - which gives 2 years to ship colonists/mines/factories to Thebes, and then another 3 years for the shipyards to be built (at Thebes).
Post by: Michael Sandy on October 13, 2006, 01:31:00 AM
And that is production at Thebes. Production at Thebes has to be weighted a bit more strongly. Automating the mines costs more than building 10 more construction factories.
Converting manned mines to automated ones has got to be a very temporary strategy, just long enough to get everything at Thebes fully employed. After that, there is no point towards spending more Theban production converting factories.
You are correct in how we disagree about the timing of the demand for shipyards. You are correct that the Commonwealth can keep producing ships for a long time as the ratio of refit time to shipbuilding increases. However, increasing economic expansion requires an increase in ship building rates.
If you can build enough colony ships, you can transport manned mines and more construction factories.
There are a few other considerations:
1) A shipyard in Thebes is secure from spies. A completely new class of warship could be developed there. Like, say, Carriers.
2) A shipyard in Thebes more secure from raids, sabotage etc...
3) Spies will not have an accurate count of Commonwealth hulls.
4) A shipyard on Thebes is slightly more efficient for refiting survey ships. Loses 2 fewer useful months per 3 years.
And run the trends:
2044, Colonization of Thebes begins. 5 years later, 5 million. If you extrapolate, you should have a lot more than 10 million on Thebes in 5 more years, because a lot of time was lost ramping up freighter and colony ship numbers. I figure that in 5 years, you would have a few more mines, but a _lot_ more construction factories.
But in 5 more years, there will be fewer new colony ships and freighters coming on line, not more, because of refit issues.
At that point, even producing a new shipyard every 3 years at Thebes it would be hard to increase the new construction speed.
Post by: Michael Sandy on October 13, 2006, 01:59:32 AM
20 years to double total shipyards?
I would point out that with 50% of shipyards doing refits, a single additional shipyard is a 17% increase in new ships.
5 years to move about 100 factories and mines to Thebes. Another 5 years would likely see what, another 150 or so, and some more beyond it? That would be like 1/4 the Commonwealth's economic power.
Commonwealth politics will definitely get a little funny in 10 years not only will the industry numbers for Thebes and Earth start to approach each other, but the relative importance of what Thebes produces will be much more important. Think of which real estate is worth investing in, and figure that politics chases the money.
With merely steady, not increasing ship production, the Commonwealth would basically double its colony ship and freighter fleet in 5 years, with an even higher increase in capacity due to new engines and a Jump Gate link to Thebes that allows more efficient freighter and colony ship designs.
But you may have a point. With these projections, Earth's industry could be largely evacuated within 25 years. Faster shipyard production would cut a year or so off that, but then what? At that point, there is not such a huge payoff from increasing the freighter fleet. Earth's most vital aspect to the Commonwealth's empire at that point would be the Research factories, the trading links with the other races, and the shipyards.
Post by: rmcrowe on October 13, 2006, 04:10:49 PM
1. The Commonwealth needs to build/move its research capability to Herakleia or Thebes.
2. The existing population of the Commonwealth will want to be moved OFF the Earth fairly soon, requiring large numbers of the Artemis II class to do it.
3. Herakleia needs a visit from a few freighters, to deliver at least one mine and at least one Construction Factory.
robert
Post by: kdstubbs on October 13, 2006, 05:16:18 PM
Once you get a jump gate network built out to Thebes, you would then be in a position to establish a colonization pipeline, by moving population every month in a free flowing movement of colony ships--twelve squadrons of colony ships would produce a steady state movement of 200,000 colonists with infrastructure per month, increasing the number of colony ships to twenty four colony squadrons, would allow you to move 400,000 per month, but you can do the math. Essentially a colony ship could be landing almost every week if you set it up properly.
But you will need to limit ie defend the network to prevent your competitors from simply moving through the gate on their own.
need a von neuman factory to allow you to boot strap factory production in Thebes and elsewhere. Might want to also consider multiple colony sites--don't want all of your eggs in one basket so to speak. I would immediately begin serious consideration of a second colony site, one where I could cover my bet.
Kevin
Post by: Michael Sandy on October 13, 2006, 05:52:55 PM
First, a freighter full of automated factories. Then a colony ship and enough infrastructure to support it, along with Construction factories.
That ensures that the colony can build up infrastructure until such time as it becomes a priority to ship large numbers of colonists there.
However, I disagree that there is any priority to building more research labs anytime soon. The Commonwealth has a lot of research labs, and they will produce up until Nemesis arrives. And there is a greater incremental benefit to producing more shipyards, and a greater locational advantage in having the new shipyard at Thebes.
Post by: Michael Sandy on October 13, 2006, 05:56:59 PM
There is a planet with lots of Mercassium, availability 1, a bit further out from Thebes. In order to produce 2 colony ships a year, that is 800 tons. You would need about 60 automated mines for that. And several more to cover refit costs.
Would take a lot of freighters, but the Commonwealth has a good number of them.
Post by: Steve Walmsley on October 14, 2006, 12:08:03 PM
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
Does the Commonwealth now have sufficient Jump gate components for both sides of the first warp point in the chain to Thebes? If so, that will add some flexibility in terms of colony and freighter schedules, which in turn allows more flexibility in terms of shipyard space too. If ships are leaving and arriving throughout the season, when a new ship is completed, there should be a newly arriving ship that could be refitted.
There are enough jump gate components to build the gates either side of the Sol - Corinth jump point and the Corinth - Mycenae Gate. More components will have to built for the other gates. Once the gates are built, it will become a lot easier to move things to and from Thebes as ships can proceed in small groups rather than as a large convoy.
Steve
Post by: Steve Walmsley on October 14, 2006, 12:10:11 PM
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
Question: why aren't the new Jump Cruisers and refitted grav survey ships not using the Ion IB engines? These aren't combat ships, they have no shields, so why worry about battle damage issues?
The refitted ships are not using the new Ion engines because replacing all the engines is during a refit is very expensive. I could have included them in the new Menelaus II but I wanted the older ship to refit to the same class.
Steve
Post by: Steve Walmsley on October 14, 2006, 12:13:50 PM
Quote from: "MWadwell"
Perhaps now that the Gallicite shortage has been addressed, ships can be overhauled on a scheduled basis (rather than when Gallicite is available), which would result in a more consistent shipyard usage.
A very good point about the reasons for the problems with shipyard capacity. It as eased now as overhauls have been completed and most of the activity is new construction.
Steve
Post by: Steve Walmsley on October 14, 2006, 12:22:57 PM
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
The other useful thing that the construction factories on Thebes can do is make more construction factories.
Then more colonists could be shipped to Thebes to man them, while the automated factories go somewhere with Mercassium.
As for Terraforming, I thought "colonizable" meant colonization costs were less than twice the optimum, not that the ratio was 1.
The longer term plan will be to move all the automated mines off Thebes when the pop is high enough to support the manned mines.
In Aurora terms I tend to think of ideal as 1.0 and habitable as 2.0 or less. Anything 3.0 or less is also reasonable if you need a base or to establish a mining colony. Up to around 10.0 is possible for an outpost.
Steve
Post by: Steve Walmsley on October 14, 2006, 12:24:03 PM
Quote from: "TrueZuluwiz"
What I'm waiting to see is an automatic automatic factory factory.
LOL - I hope I never get to that stage
Steve
Post by: Steve Walmsley on October 14, 2006, 12:28:16 PM
Quote from: "MWadwell"
From what I've remember, you can only place a population down on a planet with a habitability index of 4 or less. The index is also the cost multiplier w.r.t. the amount of infrastructure needed.
All Terraforming does, is to make one of the 2 changable factors (water and oxygen - as gravity is unchangable) more habitable, which then reduces the multiplier.
You can place a population anywhere with a colony cost, although I think it becomes impractical above colony cost 10.0. As well as the infrastructure cost, the colony cost also affects the size of the Food and Environment sector of the population which is equal to colony cost x 5%
The current Terraforming installations allow you to remove or add any type of atmopsheric gas, allowing you to modifiy the amount of oxygen (for example) or add/remove greenhouse gases to affect the temperature. I may add other types of terraforming in the future.
Steve
Post by: Steve Walmsley on October 14, 2006, 12:40:42 PM
Quote from: "kdstubbs"
Steve,
Once you get a jump gate network built out to Thebes, you would then be in a position to establish a colonization pipeline, by moving population every month in a free flowing movement of colony ships--twelve squadrons of colony ships would produce a steady state movement of 200,000 colonists with infrastructure per month, increasing the number of colony ships to twenty four colony squadrons, would allow you to move 400,000 per month, but you can do the math. Essentially a colony ship could be landing almost every week if you set it up properly.
But you will need to limit ie defend the network to prevent your competitors from simply moving through the gate on their own.
need a von neuman factory to allow you to boot strap factory production in Thebes and elsewhere. Might want to also consider multiple colony sites--don't want all of your eggs in one basket so to speak. I would immediately begin serious consideration of a second colony site, one where I could cover my bet. Kevin
One of my priorities at the moment is to establish jump gates on the Sol - Thebes route but it is going to take several years. Once in place, each group of ships can then move at their maximum speed and new, faster ship types can be introduced without complicating the logistics.
Defending the network is a concern although not for the reason you mention. You cannot move through another race's jump gates without permission (I will add a treaty type for this) but jump gates are not too hard to destroy - 100 points of damage is required. Hostile raiders could wreak havoc by taking out a few jump gates.
I agree that I need to establish additional colonies because the Commonwealth would be in severe trouble if an alien race took out Thebes. For the moment, the threat of Nemesis means risks have to be taken but as soon as resources permit, additional colonies will be established in Thessalonica and Cerberus and the Herakleia colony will be improved.
Steve
Post by: Michael Sandy on October 14, 2006, 12:51:04 PM
Could you have one supply much of the food and services of the other? Obviously, that would require some kind of reliable freighter service, so there would be costs to it. And it would be best if the freighter in question could be loaded rapidly.
Maybe have the food supply for a month be as bulky as infrastructure? It would only pay for really short hauls, I think. Also, perhaps food could be stockpiled?
That way if you have periods where a colony has more manpower than needed, they can stock up on the food supplies part for when manpower is more tightly stretched?
I like the idea from a roleplaying perspective because it allows for more variation in colony types. And in makes in-system shipping more important. You could have stories of a freighter delivering emergency medical supplies somewhere.
Of course, this would add a lot more micromanagement to colonies.
Post by: Michael Sandy on October 14, 2006, 01:03:43 PM
As is many times the case, it is about whether dispersal is better in order to reduce losses from one point, or whether it is better to build up one site to the point it can defend itself.
A small colony, with population infrastructure, automated mines and a construction factory would slowly grow the capacity of a colony to expand. If Thebes were eliminated, colonization efforts could be diverted there, because the infrastructure was already there.
But many such diversions and it will take longer to build up Thebes to the point that it can build shipyards and missile bases and fighter hangars.
I can't find the galactic map that was posted a while back, but as I understand it, Mycenae and Thebes are the most critical nodes for the Commonwealth. Until some loops are discovered, Thebes _has_ to be defended because it is so crucial just for its location.
Post by: kdstubbs on October 14, 2006, 02:21:18 PM
If someone really wanted to force the jump gate, would they really be able to refuse transit? If someone off loads troops via assault shuttle, takes over the gate, then what happens? In other words, can you capture and retain a jump gate? Could make for some fun.
Colonization pipeline and a infrastructure and transportation pipeline to Thebes is critical to optimize your efforts. But your doing well as it is.
Kevin
Post by: Steve Walmsley on October 14, 2006, 03:12:39 PM
Quote from: "kdstubbs"
Steve,
If someone really wanted to force the jump gate, would they really be able to refuse transit? If someone off loads troops via assault shuttle, takes over the gate, then what happens? In other words, can you capture and retain a jump gate? Could make for some fun.Kevin
I am assuming the gate would require a security code in order to activate. I suppose we could have a Hacking Team (with perhaps a more sci-fi name) that could attempt to break the code on enemy jump gates. It might also be possible for Espionage Teams (when I get to that) to learn the access codes for some jump gates of other races.
Steve
Post by: Michael Sandy on October 14, 2006, 03:28:44 PM
Post by: MWadwell on October 15, 2006, 11:22:17 PM
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
You are neglecting an important factor in converting the manned mines to automated. It costs 1500 production to do it. 1/3 of a shipyard, right there.
True - I had forgotten that.
Rather than going back and forth over personal preferences, let's have a look at what the Commonwealth needs, and what it wants.
But first, let's define what a need is, and what a want is.....
A need is something that has to be addressed immediately. The need will not go away on it's own, and is having a detrimental effect on more than one industry.
A want is something that may resolve itself in time (i.e. through growth or something being introduced or being made redundant).
O.K. Now, let's have a look at what the Commonwealth needs and what it wants.
We'll look at a couple of things: mineral production, population, shipyard and factory usage, and others.
First, Mineral production[/u]:
As in September 2048, the Commonwealth is mining at Earth, Thebes and Toronto. Between the 3 locations, they are producing:
Duranium: 12505 t/year (although 11250 t comes from earth - which is about to run out....)
Neutronium: 1254 t/year
Corbomite: 1732 t/year
Tritanium: 303 t/year
Boronide: 121 t/year
Mercassium: 0 t/year
Vendarite: 0 t/year
Sorium: 317 t/year
Uridium: 317 t/year
Corundium: 0 t/year
Gallicite: 1214 t/year
Next, Population[/u].
Earth has approx 790M people, with 22M of this free. It's annual growth rate is approx 2.3% (assuming that there is sufficient free infrastructure).
Thebes has approx 3.8M people, with 850K of this free. It's annual growth rate is approx 10% (There's enough free infrastructure for 800K).
Shipyard usage[/u]
The Commonwealth has 12 shipyards. Of which (assuming a 3 year overhaul cycle) 27% of the shipyards will be occupied doing the overhauls.
In addition, the overhauls will use the following materials:
Duranium: 680 t/year
Neutronium: 30 t/year
Corbomite: 30 t/year
Tritanium: 50 t/year
Boronide: 50 t/year
Mercassium: 155 t/year
Vendarite: 0 t/year
Sorium: 30 t/year
Uridium: 350 t/year
Corundium: 40 t/year
Gallicite: 250 t/year
If we take the overhaul usage away from the minerals gained through mining, we get:
Duranium: 575 t/year (ignoring the production from earth)
Neutronium: 1224 t/year
Corbomite: 1702 t/year
Tritanium: 253 t/year
Boronide: 71 t/year
Mercassium: -155 t/year
Vendarite: 0 t/year
Sorium: 287 t/year
Uridium: -33 t/year
Corundium: -40 t/year
Gallicite: 1164 t/year
From looking at the list above, it is obvious that one of the needs is more mining facilites..... Specifically in Duranium, Mercassium, Uridium and Corundium.
Now, let's assume that the shipyards are running at 50% usage (e.g. 6 out of 12 shipyards) in building new ships.
Furthermore, let's assume that it is evenly split into building 3 Themistocles II freighters and 3 Artemis II colony ships. This will produce 3 freighters, and 1.5 colony ships per year.
This will require:
Duranium: 1715 t/year
Neutronium: 84 t/year
Corbomite: 30 t/year
Tritanium: 0 t/year
Boronide: 0 t/year
Mercassium: 1185 t/year
Vendarite: 0 t/year
Sorium: 30 t/year
Uridium: 0 t/year
Corundium: 0 t/year
Gallicite: 810 t/year
If we take the overhaul/shipbuilding usage away from the minerals gained through mining, we get:
Duranium: -1140 t/year (ignoring the production from earth)
Neutronium: 1140 t/year
Corbomite: 1672 t/year
Tritanium: 253 t/year
Boronide: 71 t/year
Mercassium: -1340 t/year
Vendarite: 0 t/year
Sorium: 257 t/year
Uridium: -33 t/year
Corundium: -40 t/year
Gallicite: 354 t/year
Factory usage[/u]
Earth has 489 factories, which produce 6846 BP.
Thebes has 22 factories, which produce 370 BP.
As it works out that a ton of material is needed for each BP, this means that with the factories working at 100%, that 7216 tons of material needed - of which over 50% of which is Duranium.
This means that the yearly production of Duranium is actually:
Duranium: -4750 t/year (ignoring the production from earth) (And I should point out, that this is assuming that only 50% of the items manufactured are made from Duranium. If 100% of the item is made from Duranium, then this figure is on the low side......)
As I have previously stated, one of the needs is more mining facilites....
Others[/u]
I don't know how much miscellaneous infrastructure is needed - things such: as raw materials for supply points/missiles/other consumables; additional ground forces; etc.
So, looking at the above figures, it is apparent that main overriding need is for automated/manned mines.
At present, the best place for manned mines is Thebes (as it has Duranium with an accessibilty of "0.8"). Which then means that there is a need for free personel on Thebes.
Having a look at the rate of change on Thebes, you can see that each convoy takes out either 200/250K of people. This would translate into approx 140/175 K free people. The same convoy is taking out 9 automated/manned mines. As each convoy has a round trip of approximately 2 months, this gives the industry on Earth to convert approx 7.5 manned mines to automated mines. Which means that an average of 1.5 manned mines are shipped out each turn.
That means that out of the 200/250K colonists, (discounting service population and people to man the mines) the free colonist population is increased by only 65/100K per convoy. Add to this the population growth (of 380K /year) and we get a yearly increase of 770/980K /year.
Now let's remember that to use the shipyards, you'd need a free population of 2M. At the current rate of population increase, this will occur in about 1.5 years.....
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
And that is production at Thebes. Production at Thebes has to be weighted a bit more strongly. Automating the mines costs more than building 10 more construction factories.
Converting manned mines to automated ones has got to be a very temporary strategy, just long enough to get everything at Thebes fully employed. After that, there is no point towards spending more Theban production converting factories.
Looking over the figures above, I now agree with you - automating the manned mines is probably wasteful.
However, the huge shortage in raw materials means that the industry would be better service making manned mines, rather than a shipyard.....
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
You are correct in how we disagree about the timing of the demand for shipyards. You are correct that the Commonwealth can keep producing ships for a long time as the ratio of refit time to shipbuilding increases. However, increasing economic expansion requires an increase in ship building rates.
True - however, I believe that I've shown above that the major factor in ship construction is NOT available shipyard space, but raw materials to build the ships in the first place.
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
If you can build enough colony ships, you can transport manned mines and more construction factories.
Agreed - but FIRST you need to have the raw materials - which at the moment, the Commonwealth doesn't have......
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
There are a few other considerations:
1) A shipyard in Thebes is secure from spies. A completely new class of warship could be developed there. Like, say, Carriers.
2) A shipyard in Thebes more secure from raids, sabotage etc...
3) Spies will not have an accurate count of Commonwealth hulls.
4) A shipyard on Thebes is slightly more efficient for refiting survey ships. Loses 2 fewer useful months per 3 years.
While these are valid points, the above are more wants rather than needs.
For example, for the short term, the Commonwealth is going to be concentrating on building freighters and colony ships - who cares about spies?
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
And run the trends:
2044, Colonization of Thebes begins. 5 years later, 5 million. If you extrapolate, you should have a lot more than 10 million on Thebes in 5 more years, because a lot of time was lost ramping up freighter and colony ship numbers. I figure that in 5 years, you would have a few more mines, but a _lot_ more construction factories.
But that just exagerates the problem, as at the moment, the biggest problem is a shortage of raw materials - NOT of factories.
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
But in 5 more years, there will be fewer new colony ships and freighters coming on line, not more, because of refit issues.
At that point, even producing a new shipyard every 3 years at Thebes it would be hard to increase the new construction speed.
With an overhaul every 3 years, every new ship consumes 6.6% of it's construction cost every year.
What this means, is that with 9 (73% of 12) shipyards at full production, the shipyards need to increase approximately 0.6 extra shipyards per year.
So you are correct in that in 5 years time there may be a problem (as only 0.33 shipyards are built per year - well below the required 0.6) - but I'll just point out one major assumption - that is that in the 5 years the shipyards are running at full production. As can be seen (from the raw material production), that's a pretty big assumption.....
Post by: Michael Sandy on October 16, 2006, 01:26:39 AM
Running factories to convert mines costs 150 Duranium per mine. It takes a while for an automated mine to earn that back. 10 years per mine.
Colony ship is a better payoff, I think, because each 2.5? 3? round trips transports enough colonists to support another manned mine. A bit over 2 months per round trip, a colony ship allows another manned mine every 6 months or so. 2 a year. Payoff in about 4 years. Figure that the added population growth in that time takes care of the additional population required for food and services. Of course, it takes longer to build a colony ship, so that is weighting against it in terms of time.
If being short of Duranium means the Commonwealth can't build a colony ship, it has made the wrong decision. So reluctantly I agree, since it would take many years for a new shipyard to produce enough colony ships to pay for the resources involved, by the logic I described, if it costs a chance to build a colony ship it has to be delayed.
The Commonwealth is having a resource crash, and needs to conserve what it can and preserve its ability to grow.
Thank you for running the numbers on the number of shipyards required to keep up with refits, and how many more will be needed.
I think that the shipyards _have_ to be running at full blast because they address the resource crash faster than anything else. Because the manned mines are already built.
Once the Jump gate line to Thebes is built, colony ships can be built with a much higher engine:cryotank ratio. That would reduce the build time and the Mercassium cost a bit.
As for the raw materials, the Commonwealth has enough to keep the ship building going, with the Mercassium from the Gitanyow, the stockpile of Duranium, and Gallicite isn't a problem anymore. So shipping a bunch of automated mines for a quick lunch in Sicyon, with availability 1 in 7? elements on an asteroid there would be a good thing.
The Commonwealth has more freighters than are useful just for shipping to Thebes. However, a longer haul could be profitable, if they can ship mines to places with higher mineral availability.
Something else your numbers showed:
Ship building has advantages because it requires a lot of different minerals. A mine producing gallicite, mercassium, and duranium could produce as many as 42 tons a year towards making another ship, but only 14 tons a year towards producing another mine. That means building ships in order to expand the economy can require fewer mines to replace the resources involved than build more mines would.
Duranium looks like it will be The long term limiter on growth. Chances are, if you have enough Duranium for everything you will have enough of everything else. That makes pure Duranium consumption potentially poison for growth.
Post by: Michael Sandy on October 16, 2006, 01:44:52 AM
Compare the effect on growth by basically shutting down Earth Industry, and using the Duranium stockpile as long as possible for ship building to converting factories.
It won't take that many more mines before the Duranium situation is sufficient to maintain ship building. The Commonwealth has 2 solid years of Mercassium, courtesy of trade with the Gitanyow, and has that time to get Mercassium into production.
A new colonization strategy has presented itself for starting a colony:
Build small troop transports to carry Engineers. Instead of sending a colony ship, a huge amount of bulky infrastructure and construction factories, send automated mines, Engineers, and a bunch of supply for the initial colony. Once infrastructure has been built, send in colonists, construction factories and manned mines.
Heh, reminds me of the computer game, Civilization II. You could never have too many Engineer units.
You provide numbers showing that there is no way the Commonwealth can hope to supply the Duranium needs of its factories running full blast. How much _less_ can it hope to keep them running full blast by putting them on projects that consume pure Duranium, as distinct from 50% Duranium?
Post by: MWadwell on October 16, 2006, 07:27:07 PM
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
Hmmm. Good analysis I would dispute that the Commonwealth _needs_ to keep all of its factories running.
I agree. I think that the Commonwealth needs to re-evaluate it's priorities, and then only do the essential.
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
Running factories to convert mines costs 150 Duranium per mine. It takes a while for an automated mine to earn that back. 10 years per mine.
Colony ship is a better payoff, I think, because each 2.5? 3? round trips transports enough colonists to support another manned mine. A bit over 2 months per round trip, a colony ship allows another manned mine every 6 months or so. 2 a year. Payoff in about 4 years. Figure that the added population growth in that time takes care of the additional population required for food and services. Of course, it takes longer to build a colony ship, so that is weighting against it in terms of time.
Good point! Let's do the maths to see what is better, to automate a manned mine, or to ship out colonists. (The shipping of the manned/automated mine won't be calculates, as it should be the same.)
With a colony the size of Thebes, approx 30% of the new colonists are going to service population, plus an extra 5% to food production - leaving 65% available.
Each colony ship can do 6 convoys/year, and carries 50 000 colonists - for a total of 300 000 colonists/year. Multiply this by 65% and we get 195K free population/year - or enough to man 4 mines/factories.
The flip side of this, is that a colony ship costs almost 870 BP (and takes almost 870 tons of materials) to build, verse only 150 to automate a manned mine.
So the payoff for an automated mine is in 10 years (150/15), and for the colony ship it is 14.5 years (870/(4 x 15)).
Which is surprising - automating a manned mine is actually better value than shipping colonists! Can you just double check my maths for me - as I am very surprised by this.
Looking at the math, the colony ship is penalised a little, as the assumption is that a mine is only mining a single type of metal (whereas in reality a single mine can be producing multiple types, and so increasing it's efficiency).
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
If being short of Duranium means the Commonwealth can't build a colony ship, it has made the wrong decision. So reluctantly I agree, since it would take many years for a new shipyard to produce enough colony ships to pay for the resources involved, by the logic I described, if it costs a chance to build a colony ship it has to be delayed.
The Commonwealth is having a resource crash, and needs to conserve what it can and preserve its ability to grow.
Agreed. But I think that we need to consider exactly what is the best method to grow. I know that I was surprised by the results (above), that showed that a colony ship can be more inefficient that automating a mine......
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
Thank you for running the numbers on the number of shipyards required to keep up with refits, and how many more will be needed.
I think that the shipyards _have_ to be running at full blast because they address the resource crash faster than anything else. Because the manned mines are already built.
I'm of two minds on this. The ships are more of a long-term growth need, whereas automated mines are a short term need.
Personally, I think that the shipyards should be reasonably busy now, with increasing usage when the material shortage subsides.
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
Once the Jump gate line to Thebes is built, colony ships can be built with a much higher engine:cryotank ratio. That would reduce the build time and the Mercassium cost a bit.
I think someone needs to do an analysis as to what is the best colonist:ship speed ratio.
With the jump gates becoming operational in 2 years, the best way of shipping colonists now might not be the best way in the future.
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
As for the raw materials, the Commonwealth has enough to keep the ship building going, with the Mercassium from the Gitanyow, the stockpile of Duranium, and Gallicite isn't a problem anymore. So shipping a bunch of automated mines for a quick lunch in Sicyon, with availability 1 in 7? elements on an asteroid there would be a good thing.
The Commonwealth has more freighters than are useful just for shipping to Thebes. However, a longer haul could be profitable, if they can ship mines to places with higher mineral availability.
Agreed.
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
Something else your numbers showed:
Ship building has advantages because it requires a lot of different minerals. A mine producing gallicite, mercassium, and duranium could produce as many as 42 tons a year towards making another ship, but only 14 tons a year towards producing another mine. That means building ships in order to expand the economy can require fewer mines to replace the resources involved than build more mines would.
Agreed. As I stated above, the years to recoup the raw materials for a colony ship is 14.5 years, but that is assuming only a single material is gathered per mine.
If 2 materials are gathered, then the time is halved, if 3 are gathered, the time is one third, etc.
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
Duranium looks like it will be The long term limiter on growth. Chances are, if you have enough Duranium for everything you will have enough of everything else. That makes pure Duranium consumption potentially poison for growth.
Agreed.
And this is where the Commonwealth is going to be held back by the other nations - as it is the only nation producing substantial amounts of raw materials, the other nations are going to be putting pressure on the Commonwealth to hand over raw materials to support their own economy - and this is only going to get worse with the Duranium running out on Earth.
For example, the Islamic Alliance has very little duranium and a small industry. The only way it can grow is to get raw materials, but it first needs to grow to get the raw materials in the first place. And so it is in a lose-lose situation - and has nothing to lose by threatening the Commonwealth to supply raw materials......
Post by: Michael Sandy on October 16, 2006, 07:41:39 PM
The colony ship doesn't just shift enough population for 4 mines a year and _stop_.
So, perhaps we need an actual calendar calculation:
Start with Month 0, where both the conversion is started, and the colony ship is started.
Month 2, the converted mine starts mining.
Month 24? The colony ship starts shipping.
Month 27, an additional manned mine is in operation
Month 30 ""
Month 84 a total of 60 new manned mines are in operation.
So compare the ratio of mined minerals over a 84 month period or so.
82 mine/months for the automated mine.
60 + 57 + .... + 9 + 6 + 3 = 630 mine months
over 114 months, it would be 1395 mine months
Note, this neglects the resource cost for supporting the colony ship.
Post by: Michael Sandy on October 16, 2006, 09:32:20 PM
And that 150 Duranium is a big chunk.
In the next decade, as technology improves, colony ships will get faster and with the Jump Gates, become more efficient in terms of build cost and time.
However, the heyday of the colony ship as the best single investment runs out when the manned mines of Earth are completely shipped. It would take 25 million population to man 500 manned mines, or a population on Thebes in excess of 40 million. Of course, those colony ships still pay off in supplying the population for Construction factories and Supply Factories.
Post by: MWadwell on October 17, 2006, 06:54:08 PM
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
I stared at your comparison between mines and colony ships for a while before I caught the error.
The colony ship doesn't just shift enough population for 4 mines a year and _stop_.
Ahhh - that's it. I knew that the results "felt" wrong.....
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
So, perhaps we need an actual calendar calculation:
Start with Month 0, where both the conversion is started, and the colony ship is started.
Month 2, the converted mine starts mining.
Month 24? The colony ship starts shipping.
Month 27, an additional manned mine is in operation
Month 30 ""
Month 84 a total of 60 new manned mines are in operation.
So compare the ratio of mined minerals over a 84 month period or so.
82 mine/months for the automated mine.
60 + 57 + .... + 9 + 6 + 3 = 630 mine months
over 114 months, it would be 1395 mine months
Note, this neglects the resource cost for supporting the colony ship.
Let's have a look at the # of working mines, for a set mineral outlay.
Ignoring shipyard usage, supply and overhaul requirements, it costs nearly 900 tons to construct a colony ship. For the sake of the comparison, let's say that the 900 tons is entirely Duranium (so that we don't have to worry about mine output of different minerals, or of exchange rations between different mineral types). Let's also assume that we have a Duranium availability of "1", and that it takes zero time to convert a manned mine to an automated mine.
Month 0
* 6 mines automated - each producing 14 tons of Duranium (or 84t/year)
* Colony ship started - construction time: 2 years
Month 22
* 154 t of Duranium mined - enough to convert another mine (total # = 7). Now producing 98t/year.
Month 24
* Colony ship launched. Each trip takes 2 months, carrying 50K population (of which 35K are "free" population).
Month 26
* First round trip completed - 0 mines and 35K free population.
Month 28
* Second Round trip - 1 mine plus 20K free population
Month 30
* Third Round trip - 2 mines plus 5K free population
Month 32
* Fourth Round trip - 2 mines plus 40K free population
Month 34
* Fifth Round trip - 3 mines plus 25K free population
Month 36
* Sixth Round trip - 4 mines plus 10K free population
Month 38
* Seventh Round trip - 4 mines plus 45K free population
Month 40
* 150 t of Duranium mined - enough to convert another mine (total # = 8 ). Now producing 112t/year.
* Eighth Round trip - 5 mines plus 30K free population
Month 42
* Ninth Round trip - 6 mines plus 15K free population
Month 44
* Tenth Round trip - 7 mines plus 0K free population
Month 46
* Eleventh Round trip - 7 mines plus 35K free population
Month 48
* Twelveth Round trip - 8 mines plus 20K free population
Summary:
End of Year 2:
* Automating mines:
7 mines automated, 20 tons of stockpiled duranium
* Colonisation:
0 colonists transported, 0 mines, 0 tons of stockpiled duranium
End of Year 3:
* Automating mines:
7 mines automated, 120 tons of stockpiled duranium
* Colonisation:
210 colonists transported, 4 mines, 28 tons of stockpiled duranium
End of Year 4:
* Automating mines:
8 mines automated, 75 tons of stockpiled duranium
* Colonisation:
420 colonists transported, 8 mines, 114 tons of stockpiled duranium
Constinuing this on, we get:
End of Year 5:
* Automating mines:
9 mines automated, 42 tons of stockpiled duranium
* Colonisation:
630 colonists transported, 12 mines, 259 tons of stockpiled duranium
End of Year 6:
* Automating mines:
10 mines automated, 18 tons of stockpiled duranium
* Colonisation:
840 colonists transported, 16 mines, 464 tons of stockpiled duranium
As can be seen, despite the fact that the automated mines are re-investing the mined duranium (while the colonisation effort is stockpiling it), at 4 years the # of mines are the same. After 4 years though, the colonisation effort is by far the most cost effective.....
Post by: Michael Sandy on October 17, 2006, 07:23:59 PM
However, to be fair, I also neglected the Supply cost of the colony ship. But then, we also neglected the increase population growth as a result of shipping colonists.
It is tricky, trying to determine what factors you can leave out in comparing two courses of action.
Looking at the Commonwealth's resource crisis, everything but the Duranium part can be dealt with by shipping automated mines to Platea. So when comparing how the colony ship strategy compares with the converting mine strategy with getting the Duranium budget positive, the colony ship strategy comes out _way_ ahead.
There is another course of action for staving off the Duranium crisis:
Scrap the fighter bases, a large number of construction factories, and some of the ordnance factories.
Running the numbers on fighter design, I just don't see them being effective with two racks. A size 2 missile just isn't going to be very effective. And getting to three racks requires 40,000 research points. A huge number that will take some time. Sufficient time that investing the Duranium component of the Fighter Bases would likely pay off in an increase in total production sufficient to build them later.
And on Thebes.
Post by: MWadwell on October 17, 2006, 10:23:06 PM
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
Even with the 5 months the Colony ship has to spend refitting after 3 years, it still pays better.
However, to be fair, I also neglected the Supply cost of the colony ship. But then, we also neglected the increase population growth as a result of shipping colonists.
Well, the supply cost is relatively easy to calculate - as it costs 5% of the ships build cost for 0 to 6 months, and then increases 5% for every 6 months after that. And every supply point is a ton of duranium.
So for a 3 year period, the average yearly maintenance is 17.5%. Similarly the overhaul cost (in metals) is 20% of the ships construction cost. Adding it all together, we get the "running cost" of a ship (over a 3 year period) of 72.5% of the ships building cost (or, if a ship "costs" 870 tons of duranium to build, maintenace/overhauls "costs" another 630 tons of duranium over 3 years).
Now, the interesting thing is, that when you take the running costs of the ship into consideration, the net effect is that the mines are producing negative amounts of Duranium.
(Let's double check this. Over 3 years, the monthly maintenace plus the overhaul cost amounts to 630 tons of duranium. Previously, I have stated that in 3 years of colonisation, it results in 259 tons of stockpiled duranium.)
An example, is that in the first 2 months, the ship requires 7.25 tons of duranium for supply - but the mines only produce 2.3 tons of duranium. In fact, going over the amount of duranium produced, over a 3 year lifetime of the colony ship, it NEVER results in a positive amount of duranium mined......
And this is taking the population growth into consideration......
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
It is tricky, trying to determine what factors you can leave out in comparing two courses of action.
Looking at the Commonwealth's resource crisis, everything but the Duranium part can be dealt with by shipping automated mines to Platea. So when comparing how the colony ship strategy compares with the converting mine strategy with getting the Duranium budget positive, the colony ship strategy comes out _way_ ahead.
Well, surprisingly, a colony ship actually has a negative effect on the amount of duranium produced.....
Comments?
Post by: MWadwell on October 18, 2006, 12:32:18 AM
Quote from: "MWadwell"
Well, surprisingly, a colony ship actually has a negative effect on the amount of duranium produced.....
Comments?
O.K. I had a longer look at this, and worked out that over the mid-term, the colony ship method turns profitable, and in the long run is a LOT better......
Assumptions:
1) 10% growth of population (it would actually be more when the colony is smaller - but hey, if you don't like the assumption, run the simulation yourself.....
)2) Population growth is 10% (I know it would be higher for the colony when it is just starting out), and the population growth occurs at the end of every year.
3) Food plus Service Population = 30% of all colonists transfered (when the colony is smaller, this would be less than 30%.)
4) That the colony ship is overhauled every 3 years.
O.K. then, here is a summary of the results:
End of Year 1:
* automated mine:
6 mines, 84 tons of stockpiled duranium
* Colony ship:
0K colonists, 0 mines, 0 stockpiled duranium (colony ship under construction)
End of Year 2:
* automated mine:
7 mines, 20 tons of stockpiled duranium
* Colony ship:
0K colonists, 0 mines, 0 stockpiled duranium (colony ship just launched)
End of Year 3:
* automated mine:
7 mines, 118 tons of stockpiled duranium
* Colony ship:
210K colonists, 4 mines, -38 stockpiled duranium
End of Year 4:
* automated mine:
8 mines, 76 tons of stockpiled duranium
* Colony ship:
441K colonists, 8 mines, -96 stockpiled duranium
End of Year 5:
* automated mine:
9 mines, 42 tons of stockpiled duranium
* Colony ship:
695K colonists, 13 mines, -172 stockpiled duranium
End of Year 6:
* automated mine:
10 mines, 18 tons of stockpiled duranium
* Colony ship:
870K colonists, 17 mines, -150 stockpiled duranium
End of Year 7:
* automated mine:
11 mines, 8 tons of stockpiled duranium
* Colony ship:
1166K colonists, 23 mines, 34 stockpiled duranium
End of Year 8:
* automated mine:
12 mines, 12 tons of stockpiled duranium
* Colony ship:
1493K colonists, 29 mines, 226 stockpiled duranium
End of Year 9:
* automated mine:
13 mines, 32 tons of stockpiled duranium
* Colony ship:
1747K colonists, 34 mines, 395 stockpiled duranium
End of Year 10:
* automated mine:
14 mines, 68 tons of stockpiled duranium
* Colony ship:
2132K colonists, 42 mines, 895 stockpiled duranium
Interesting points:
* The colony ship doesn't "break even" (i.e. the stockpiled duranium is above 0) until just before the end of year 7.
* That the largest "debt" by the colony ship is -241 tons, but by halfway through year 6 (after the ship has had it's first overhaul) the "monthly production minus usage" is positive.
* By the end of year 4, the number of mines in operation by the colony ship method is the same as to the automated mine method. Afterwards, the number of mines in usage by the colony ship method is much greater.
Post by: Michael Sandy on October 18, 2006, 12:41:43 AM
I got sloppy on the analysis. Again.
It is like Alice in Wonderland. You have to run as fast as you can just to stand still, and run ever so much faster if you want to get anywhere.
You can either spend Duranium on mines to improve the Duranium intake, or spend Duranium on Supply, but one way or another, Duranium will be spent.
It takes longer than I initially estimated for the colony ship to pay off.
First two years, all expense.
Next three years, 12 manned mines come into operation, 630 ton spent on supply.
Next 5 months, 12 manned mines continue, 1/5 ship cost, or 160? spent on refit.
Next three years, 12 more manned mines, 630 on supply.
Next 5 months, 24 manned mines continue production, refit again.
After 8 years 5 months, income is well higher than outgo.
After 11 years 10 months, there are 36 manned mines.
So the conversion of manned mines to automated could be better, because the income increases immediately, and that increase can go toward making more conversions.
How much growth of population is there? Perhaps we have been undercounting it a bit.
Over a 12 year period, the population that arrives in the third year will have doubled by year 10. The population that was sent before the colony ship was refitted will have doubled by the end of year 12.
That population will keep increasing itself in a way that the production from and automated mine will not.
Of course, cannibalize 100 Construction factories and you get enough Duranium for 20 more mines converted. The Commonwealth, with its relatively short distance to travel to a Duranium source, can afford the luxury of hoping that it can increase its mining fast enough that someday it can ship its Construction Factories. The Asian Alliance and the Terran Union are probably a bit more desperate.
Can't be fun, politically, closing a bunch of factories for scrap, in order to spend the proceeds in another star system.
Post by: Michael Sandy on October 18, 2006, 01:03:37 AM
Another important thing to note:
"End of year 10: 42 mines"
So consider the existing colony ships. In 8 years, each of them will be responsible for increasing manpower sufficient to man 42 mines.
Naturally, there is an upper limit to the number of mines that can be shipped.
5 years of building colony ships as fast as possible will probably be enough.But this is considering the Commonwealth's resources only.
I think that they should do as much trade with Gitanyow involving Tritanium as possible. The Gitanyow have few mines or factories. The more production they spend on weapons than on increasing production, the greater the likelihood that the Commonwealth will come out of the decade with a significantly greater economy.
Play up the Gitanyow's security concerns. That also forces the Asians and Terran Union to rely on the strong Commonwealth to protect them while they do their best to establish off world colonies.
By playing up the Commonwealth's scrapping of fighter bases built in more optimistic times, and scrapping Construction and possibly Ordnance factories, the Commonwealth can portray its economic prospects as worse that they really are, and possibly prompt the Asian Alliance and Terran Union into their own drastic scrapping and/or mothballing programs.
Post by: MWadwell on October 18, 2006, 01:28:14 AM
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
So if you have enough of a stockpile of Duranium, Supply Points, and things you can cannabilize to see you through year 10 or so, Colony Ships are the superior option.
Agreed.
Quote from: "Michael Sandy"
Another important thing to note:
"End of year 10: 42 mines"
So consider the existing colony ships. In 8 years, each of them will be responsible for increasing manpower sufficient to man 42 mines.
Naturally, there is an upper limit to the number of mines that can be shipped.
Ironically enough, in 8 years, a freighter can make 42 round trips.
As the freighter takes less time to build (1 year verse 2 years), in the 10 years, it can actually make 48 trips - and so can have transfered 48 mines.....
So over 10 years with a single freighter and colony ship, 48 mines can be trasfered, and enough people to man 42 of the mines.
Post by: Michael Sandy on October 18, 2006, 01:37:45 AM
Shipping Jump Gate components.
Transporting automated mines to more distant and more lucrative mining sites.
The population growth curve is not a perfect match for the freighter shipping curve. The population growth is slower at first, but will eventually outpace the freighters, so having the freighters get a bit ahead of the game in terms of shipping mines would be prudent.
Getting a bit ahead of the game in terms of shipping manned mines from Earth will also give a bit more flexibility in moving automated mines to various places with additional freighters.
Post by: Steve Walmsley on October 18, 2006, 03:31:46 AM
Quote from: "MWadwell"
Well, surprisingly, a colony ship actually has a negative effect on the amount of duranium produced.....
Comments?
I think you need to bear in mind that three years is not very long in Aurora terms. I intend campaigns to last several decades and probably several centuries.
Steve
Post by: Michael Sandy on October 18, 2006, 10:41:14 AM
With a decent supply of Duranium like Thebes, once it is in production it can double its own mines and construction factories in about 15 years. Probably more time in practice. But "A couple of centuries" potentially involves 10 doubling, or a 1000-fold increase in the economy.
Well, with that much time, even Thebes would possibly run out after a 100-fold increase in the economy. Well, running out would need a huge number of automated mines, because even with its population maximized it would probably only be able to support some 4-8,000 mines.
I suppose that as the game continue, beam weapon range grows to the point that jump cruisers with dispersion of 50 can be defended against with beam weapons.
I suspect that Shipyard construction rates will be the big limitation on building very large ships. A ship that takes 10 years to build will spend 2 years in refits for each 3 in operation. A ship that takes 15 years to build will spend equal time in operation as out.
As limitations on large ships go, that is a quite reasonable one, in my opinion.
I don't think that it would be doable at all without computer support. I wonder how far exploration will extend beyond colonization. There is a practical limit that 1 years travel beyond where a ship refitted will allow 1 year of surveying. But will refit colonies be set up on the fringe or will distance just reign in exploration?
Post by: wildfire142 on October 18, 2006, 10:55:13 AM
An enjoyable but sometime frustrating situation, good game though Steve