Author Topic: Cold War Comments Thread  (Read 73704 times)

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Offline nuclearslurpee

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Re: Cold War Comments Thread
« Reply #540 on: April 25, 2022, 01:35:43 PM »
One wonders why the 3rd party wants a war and what they will gain from it

Taking things at face value, so far as we know (and I remember!), it would seem that the new D'Bringi force is a rogue actor trying to re-establish the D'Bringi as separate from the new Alliance structure, by taking new territory for the D'Bringi while at the same time destabilizing the Alliance.

On the face of it this is at least reasonable, if not plausible by itself - still a third party must be supporting this splinter group, at the least if not outright puppeteering it.
 

Offline StarshipCactus

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Re: Cold War Comments Thread
« Reply #541 on: May 22, 2022, 01:47:54 AM »
If the misunderstandings are not resolved, there could be actual war between the powers again, something the Mintek would quite like.
 

Offline Gyrfalcon

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Re: Cold War Comments Thread
« Reply #542 on: June 02, 2022, 12:45:22 PM »
So, I have to hand it to the Keepers - they basically pulled off the perfect coup. Control of almost all major D’Bringi colonies and most of the military while pointing the Humans at the Rehorish to keep them tied up. They can then enslave the T’Pau and sit pretty to raid whoever loses worst in the coming war.
 
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Offline nuclearslurpee

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Re: Cold War Comments Thread
« Reply #543 on: June 02, 2022, 02:04:49 PM »
Quite dramatic. I await the Alliance response to this turn of events, it seems clear that most of the D'Bringi have gone over to the side of the Keepers and the old Empire, while Skull-Splitter and the 4th Fleet may be mighty they cannot by themselves win a civil war without a strong economic base. However, does the rest of the Alliance have sufficient cause to interfere with an "internal D'Bringi affair"? Particularly if war with the Union may be on the horizon once again.

Still, the identity of the D'Bringi mysterious benefactors remains unknown for the moment. I maintain that this could not have been accomplished without such outside help, and indeed such benefactors have some reasons to act against the Alliance although we only know the barest hint about those reasons - something about Commercial Engines I recall...

The big winners of this are likely to be the Mintek, if they can somehow find sufficient economic balance to stabilize their empire the remaining Alliance fleets may be in for a severe testing if the Mintek catch wind of these new developments. The Bjering also once again will come out ahead simply by remaining uninvolved militarily, although if the Mintek prove to become sufficiently distracted the Bjering may discover a long-lost militaristic streak in their racial DNA.
 
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Offline Kurt (OP)

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Re: Cold War Comments Thread
« Reply #544 on: June 02, 2022, 07:31:52 PM »
Quite dramatic. I await the Alliance response to this turn of events, it seems clear that most of the D'Bringi have gone over to the side of the Keepers and the old Empire, while Skull-Splitter and the 4th Fleet may be mighty they cannot by themselves win a civil war without a strong economic base. However, does the rest of the Alliance have sufficient cause to interfere with an "internal D'Bringi affair"? Particularly if war with the Union may be on the horizon once again.

Still, the identity of the D'Bringi mysterious benefactors remains unknown for the moment. I maintain that this could not have been accomplished without such outside help, and indeed such benefactors have some reasons to act against the Alliance although we only know the barest hint about those reasons - something about Commercial Engines I recall...

The big winners of this are likely to be the Mintek, if they can somehow find sufficient economic balance to stabilize their empire the remaining Alliance fleets may be in for a severe testing if the Mintek catch wind of these new developments. The Bjering also once again will come out ahead simply by remaining uninvolved militarily, although if the Mintek prove to become sufficiently distracted the Bjering may discover a long-lost militaristic streak in their racial DNA.

The Mintek are absorbed by events transpiring elsewhere.  As you will see. 

The Bjering are quite militaristic, but not militaristically-expansionist.  In other words, they believe in a strong defense, but peaceful expansion. 

As for the Benefactors, well, that's another story...
 
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Offline Migi

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Re: Cold War Comments Thread
« Reply #545 on: June 03, 2022, 09:36:54 AM »
However, does the rest of the Alliance have sufficient cause to interfere with an "internal D'Bringi affair"?
That's basically my question: to what extent do the 'core' Alliance governments have an obligation not to interfere with the internal affairs of the others?

The Alliance didn't directly intervene when the Torqual government decided to murder and exile a large portion of its citizens, although IIRC they did provide indirect support to the rebels.

However the Torqual were only associate members, not full members, and IIRC this was before any integration started, so I assume that different prohibitions and obligations apply.

The new D'Bringi Emperor just performed an extrajudicial execution of an important Alliance individual, on the equivalent of live TV. On the one hand, if he was worried about the foreign policy implications he probably wouldn't have broadcast it to the other governments.

On the other hand, because they are allied and somewhat integrated, it seems likely that they have some obligation to protect an allied incumbent government against violent internal threats. I think it would be very easy to apply that classification to this new proto-government, and therefore be under an obligation to intervene rather than a non-interference obligation.


If a strong non-interference obligation does exist, I can think of 2 ways around that.
First, the execution and murder of various high-ranking D'Bringi and the interference with the Alliance ICN (and related systems like the Rheorish naval intelligence databases) constitutes an attack against the Alliance. This would justify removing the D'Bringi from the Alliance, and consequently remove any obligations to support the new government or refrain from interfering in internal affairs.

Secondly the Rheorish and T'Pau could determine that the D'Bringi Empire is not a legitimate successor to the old D'Bringi government, and therefore the Alliance would have an obligation to support the remains of the old government against the Imperial upstarts.


Of course, none of this matters if the Rheorish and T'Pau decide to take a see-no-evil approach.
 
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Offline Black

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Re: Cold War Comments Thread
« Reply #546 on: June 03, 2022, 12:16:41 PM »
Well, Skull-Splitter is alive so he could claim to be representative of legitimate D'Bringi government and request assistance from the remaining Alliance members.

I think that Durant is an old timer from before rise of New Dawn, so she may be willing to listen to reason and prevent full scale war between Alliance and Colonial Union. I wonder if mysterious benefactors have their hands in Colonial Union as well and will attempt to eliminate Ruston or Semenov to cause more chaos.
 

Offline Kurt (OP)

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Re: Cold War Comments Thread
« Reply #547 on: June 03, 2022, 12:45:48 PM »
However, does the rest of the Alliance have sufficient cause to interfere with an "internal D'Bringi affair"?
That's basically my question: to what extent do the 'core' Alliance governments have an obligation not to interfere with the internal affairs of the others?

The Alliance didn't directly intervene when the Torqual government decided to murder and exile a large portion of its citizens, although IIRC they did provide indirect support to the rebels.

However the Torqual were only associate members, not full members, and IIRC this was before any integration started, so I assume that different prohibitions and obligations apply.

The Alliance, while apparently powerful when viewed from the outside, is a careful balancing act between the interests of its core powers.  All had something to gain from the formation of the Alliance, but none wanted to give up any internal autonomy.  Obviously, to make something like a multi-racial federation work, they'd have to give up some, but the treaties that created the Alliance gave it numerous powers to deal with inter-species relations and foreign situations, but almost no powers to regulate or interfere with the internal issues of its member states.  Given the immense power of the Alliance, it could do almost whatever it wants, regardless of the desires of a single member race, or what the laws or its creating documents actually say.  However, since its start the Alliance and its ruling council have bent over backwards to create a custom of not interfering in the internal affairs of member races, which is why they were so conflicted and limited in dealing with the Torqual. Because the Torqual were an associate race, the Alliance Council could have easily come up with a rational for supporting whomever they wanted, but, directly interfering in the Torqual situation would have created a precedent for meddling and direct military intervention.  This would have had two direct results - first, it would have created an almost overwhelming desire to do it again, given the power available to the Alliance Council, and secondly, it would have created great distrust amongst the member races, as each began to fear that it would be next.  The Alliance Council rightly feared that taking action in the Torqual situation would eventually lead to the destruction of the Alliance through fear and mistrust. 

Quote
The new D'Bringi Emperor just performed an extrajudicial execution of an important Alliance individual, on the equivalent of live TV. On the one hand, if he was worried about the foreign policy implications he probably wouldn't have broadcast it to the other governments.

On the other hand, because they are allied and somewhat integrated, it seems likely that they have some obligation to protect an allied incumbent government against violent internal threats. I think it would be very easy to apply that classification to this new proto-government, and therefore be under an obligation to intervene rather than a non-interference obligation.

If a strong non-interference obligation does exist, I can think of 2 ways around that.
First, the execution and murder of various high-ranking D'Bringi and the interference with the Alliance ICN (and related systems like the Rheorish naval intelligence databases) constitutes an attack against the Alliance. This would justify removing the D'Bringi from the Alliance, and consequently remove any obligations to support the new government or refrain from interfering in internal affairs.

Secondly the Rheorish and T'Pau could determine that the D'Bringi Empire is not a legitimate successor to the old D'Bringi government, and therefore the Alliance would have an obligation to support the remains of the old government against the Imperial upstarts.

Of course, none of this matters if the Rheorish and T'Pau decide to take a see-no-evil approach.

The new D'Bringi emperor fears exactly this.  He was confident that his coup would work, and that the general population, which he believes longs for the old days, would support him.  His biggest worry was intervention by the other Alliance powers.  Thus the misdirection by the ICN, and the raids on the Colonial Union.  The D'Bringi have a long tradition of raiding, and as a traditionalist, the new emperor doesn't see them as an act of war.  He understood that the humans would be upset, and would demand repayment, and would threaten war to get the reparations, but in his world-view raids are a legitimate tool of diplomacy and cultural expression, and he does not understand how the Colonial Union will view them.  The new emperor knew he would need time to consolidate his rule to become the sole choice for the Alliance to represent the D'Bringi, and temporarily crippling the ICN and provoking the humans were intended to get him that time.  Being focused almost entirely on internal matters, he may be failing to understand how the other races are taking this. 

The Rehorish and the T'Pau are coming to understand that all of this is a result of the actions of the D'Bringi Empire, and when the human problem explodes into their awareness, they will immediately tie that in with the ICN issues and be able to blame the D'Bringi.  They are critically aware of the vulnerabilities of the Alliance now that communications are compromised, and, if pushed far enough, will decide that the D'Bringi have become a threat to the Alliance. 

The saving grace for the Alliance in all of this is that none of their enemies or competitors know this is happening.  Even the associate members of the Alliance have little idea of the disruption within the Alliance. 

If it comes down to war with the rest of the Alliance, the D'Bringi are in a completely compromised position.  As a race that prefers ST type planets, their colonies are scattered through the Alliance, surrounded by the more numerous colonies of the Rehorish and the T'Pau.  The Alliance has colonized 28 type ST planets, compared with 141 type T planets.  And, although the D'Bringi plotters were able to begin moving their ships before the rest of the Alliance races, this was in aid of their misdirection plan, not in preparation for fighting a civil war.  Indeed, most of the crews and officers of the various D'Bringi crewed ships don't even know about the plot, just that the government back home has changed.  That means they really haven't been asked to choose a side yet.  If the emperor manages to consolidate power and eliminate rivals, then they will be presented with a done deal and have no real choice.  If forced to choose between the Alliance and their race, most of them would choose their race, probably.  They haven't been asked that question yet, though.  For now, most of the D'Bringi officers are taking a wait-and-see attitude. 

Even worse for the D'Bringi, their home world is isolated in a dead-end system, with the T'Pau standing guard over their one access point with the rest of the Alliance.  If the D'Bringi had been planning for civil war, that is where they would have concentrated their strength. 

Still, while the D'Bringi aren't really in a good position to fight a war, neither are the other two members of the Alliance.  While they could undoubtedly beat the D'Bringi, what then.  Conquering them and forcing them to remain members of the Alliance while they are rehabilitated is more of the old-D'Bringi way of doing things, rather than the more 'enlightened' Alliance approach.  Letting them leave the Alliance is problematic as well, given how interpenetrated their territories are.  Letting them remain as they are, after causing all of these problems is problematic as well.
 
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Offline Kurt (OP)

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Re: Cold War Comments Thread
« Reply #548 on: June 03, 2022, 12:48:08 PM »
Well, Skull-Splitter is alive so he could claim to be representative of legitimate D'Bringi government and request assistance from the remaining Alliance members.

I think that Durant is an old timer from before rise of New Dawn, so she may be willing to listen to reason and prevent full scale war between Alliance and Colonial Union. I wonder if mysterious benefactors have their hands in Colonial Union as well and will attempt to eliminate Ruston or Semenov to cause more chaos.

Eerie music plays in the background...

Foreshadowing!
 
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Offline Garfunkel

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Re: Cold War Comments Thread
« Reply #549 on: June 05, 2022, 07:35:24 PM »
Yes, the plot thickens once more!  8)
 

Offline nuclearslurpee

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Re: Cold War Comments Thread
« Reply #550 on: June 07, 2022, 04:02:12 PM »
The Rehorish and T'Pau are right to continue viewing the ICN with suspicion. As long as the D'Bringi plotters continue to be able to modify ICN messages however subtly, secure communications are compromised. The question is if it can be proven that this is indeed what happened and is still happening, to justify the appropriate response.
 

Offline StarshipCactus

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Re: Cold War Comments Thread
« Reply #551 on: June 18, 2022, 10:27:16 PM »
It's all balancing on a knifes edge, hopefully the CU admiral can figure out that something is weird about the lack of a blockade or any traps and holds off from doing anything stupid and hopefully the Alliance does not try to shoot the CU ships just yet. If they can communicate properly they can explain whats up and maybe these Keeper fellows can be thrown off their new thrones. If not, the CU might be firing shots into an alliance that is already splitting down the middle, which will either drive them further apart or together briefly. If the Mintek find out about this they'll almost certainly want to take advantage.
 

Offline Gyrfalcon

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Re: Cold War Comments Thread
« Reply #552 on: June 24, 2022, 07:10:07 AM »
I think the Keepers are shooting themselves in the foot. Their continued manipulation of the ICN network is blunt and hamfisted. If they kept themselves to only minor changes then it’d have been much harder to catch them at it.

I also see them attacking the T’Pau homeworld system to force passage and kicking off with the Alliance that way.
 

Offline nuclearslurpee

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Re: Cold War Comments Thread
« Reply #553 on: June 24, 2022, 09:34:05 AM »
I think the Keepers are shooting themselves in the foot. Their continued manipulation of the ICN network is blunt and hamfisted. If they kept themselves to only minor changes then it’d have been much harder to catch them at it.

It is indeed blunt and hamfisted, but it only needs to work just long enough for a shooting war to kick off between the Alliance and CU. Not all of the Rehorish or T'Pau fleets or colonies are yet aware of the full situation, all it takes is a few places where the people are behind the times and react badly to CU counter-aggression. The tricky part is whether they are more likely to believe the CU admiral or the D'Bringi, in the absence of the critical video evidence. All it takes is someone in the right place saying "hey, the D'Bringi have been a bit chaotic lately, let's check out what this hoo-man is telling us before we do anything hasty" and the whole thing collapses in on the Keepers.

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I also see them attacking the T’Pau homeworld system to force passage and kicking off with the Alliance that way.

Probably less likely if only because the D'Bringi fleets are still distributed throughout Alliance space and not in position for a general war, especially with Skull-Splitter and his fleet supporting the Alliance. The Keepers seem more interested in surviving than fighting, hence overtures to the rest of the Alliance trying to reassure them.
 
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Online Andrew

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Re: Cold War Comments Thread
« Reply #554 on: June 25, 2022, 04:17:31 AM »
A lot is also going to depend on what resources the Keeper's benefactors have and what they want. They have played their trump card for the Keepers control of the Alliance ICN, once used the Alliance will stop trusting the ICN until they have built a new ICN with new software which the D'Bringi don't have access to the software code of. So if the benefactors want anything except the restoration of the clan system in the D'Bringi this is their time to act , possibly after they have done more to push war between the Alliance and CU or Mintek or anyone else to cause chaos. But if they have any objectives they want to use force for they need to do it in the next year or so before the ICN is replaced.