Cold War Comments Thread

[SevenOfCarina]

The humans are either going to encounter someone who has fighters, or they are going to develop them themselves.  Either way, unless they get their asses handed to them, they are going to go with the view that fighters are only good as a support weapon to the large BB's and SD's, because they'll have so much time and effort invested in the big ships that they'll find it difficult to go a different way until their faces are rubbed in the fact that they have to adopt fighters. 

Fortunately (or not) for the Colonial Union, that's going to happen sooner than they expect. With the D'Bringi distracted and considering how far relations have deteriorated, I wouldn't be surprised if they make an attempt to annex the Tomsk Union by force. The Bjering will no doubt object to that, and they've gone all-in on fighter technology.

Honestly, it's kinda disappointing how far humanity has fallen. Had the USSR and the Coalition unified peacefully without ruining Earth, a united human state would probably have an economy as large as the entire D'Bringi Alliance combined.

[Kurt (OP)]

The humans are either going to encounter someone who has fighters, or they are going to develop them themselves.  Either way, unless they get their asses handed to them, they are going to go with the view that fighters are only good as a support weapon to the large BB's and SD's, because they'll have so much time and effort invested in the big ships that they'll find it difficult to go a different way until their faces are rubbed in the fact that they have to adopt fighters. 

Fortunately (or not) for the Colonial Union, that's going to happen sooner than they expect. With the D'Bringi distracted and considering how far relations have deteriorated, I wouldn't be surprised if they make an attempt to annex the Tomsk Union by force. The Bjering will no doubt object to that, and they've gone all-in on fighter technology.

Honestly, it's kinda disappointing how far humanity has fallen. Had the USSR and the Coalition unified peacefully without ruining Earth, a united human state would probably have an economy as large as the entire D'Bringi Alliance combined.

The way I had it set up, both the D'Bringi Alliance and the human nations were subject to internal divisions and pressures.  If the D'Bringi had done a little worse, and the humans a little better, it might have been the D'Bringi that fell to an internal civil war between their clans, shattering their Alliance and leaving an alliance of the USSR and Coalition dominant.  It just kind of worked out the way it did.  Failure, or perceived failure, can be a problem. 

Having said that, while the D'Bringi Alliance is the dominant power, they also have more enemies.  The Colonial Union currently doesn't have any active enemies, unless they create their own, which admittedly they are working very hard on doing. 

[Gyrfalcon]

As I understand it, the Bjering will stomp the humans flat given the fighter advantage in starfire. The only thing that would prevent a clean sweep would be closed warp points (which they probably know about given the Tomsk Union) and any artificial constraints on invasions.

[YABG]

Maybe the best hope for humanity the CU getting whipped and the Tomsk Union taking over the mantle as the major human power, leading a less xenophobic human regime, content with being a mid tier power.

Really cool AAR by the way, thanks for writing it up so far

[Andrew]

I would say that the CU will do well if they can maintain their peaceful position for some time, they have low compared to other powers spending on their fleet which means they can improve technology and econonomy relatively quickly improving their relative position. The D'bringi/Rehorish alliance will want to avoid fighting the humans until they have beaten the Mintek so that helps with peace. If they have to fight the Bjering they stand a good chance of winning , the Bjering have a smaller economy and small fleet with not many fighters so the CU fleets stand a good chance of beating them in battle or at least forcing them to fight with the support of their forts at a WP.

Conquest of Tomsk and the Bjering would really help the CU position but such a war is risky and would cut into their economic development and risk D'Bringi attack taking advantage of the CU being distracted and hoping the Mintek don't choose that moment to attack. After all until they find another point of contact with the Mintek the only way the D'bringi can continue the war is with a WP assault against known heavy defenses and that would be very expensive even if they won

[Kurt (OP)]

As I understand it, the Bjering will stomp the humans flat given the fighter advantage in starfire. The only thing that would prevent a clean sweep would be closed warp points (which they probably know about given the Tomsk Union) and any artificial constraints on invasions.

It's not quite that clear cut, I think.  Fighters are a big deal once they become available, but they aren't magic.  The Bjering are using fighters in a support role, and have divided their carriers between their five fleets, with a small reserve of carriers with their home fleet.  This means that unless they assemble their fleets, which are currently dispersed across their territory, any one fleet only has a relatively small number of fighters.  Depending on the force ratio, they might not be enough to tip the balance if the CU has superiority.  If the Bjering are given enough time to assemble their fleets, the CU has a problem. 

If it comes to fighting, it will be an interesting conflict.  The CU wants Tomsk and its colonies, but has no interest in conquering the Bjering, and would prefer they just go away.  On the Tomsk-Bjering side, they both have no interest in conquering the CU, or really even in acquiring additional territory by conquest.  That means that the allies will try to stop the CU from conquering Tomsk, and will try to make continuing the war expensive for the CU, while the CU really just needs to take and hold the Tomsk system.  While the CU isn't sure how far the Tomsk Union has explored and colonized, they do know the basic layout of the Tomsk state.  The most important thing about the Tomsk Union is that it is centered on the Tomsk system, which has twelve warp points.  Every other colony in the Tomsk Union can be found along one of the ten other warp points (not including the one to the CU, and the one to the Bjering), thus, if the CU holds the Tomsk system, each of the warp chains will be cut off from each other, isolating the colonies located there and leaving them ripe for conquest once the Bjering are dealt with. 

We'll see. 

Kurt

[Kurt (OP)]

Maybe the best hope for humanity the CU getting whipped and the Tomsk Union taking over the mantle as the major human power, leading a less xenophobic human regime, content with being a mid tier power.

Really cool AAR by the way, thanks for writing it up so far

I'm glad you like it.  I'm having fun writing it, and I'm glad I've been able to get further than I have in previous campaigns. 

I'm not sure how things are going to work out.  Just when I think I have a clear idea of how things are going, something happens to change the course of everything.  Again. 

Kurt

[Garfunkel]

Yeah it's a good story and even though I don't play Starfire, it has kept me well interested.

[Kurt (OP)]

My latest update covers some of humanity's ongoing issues with the ecological devastation of Earth after two nuclear wars.  Starfire does not really cover this issue, and Starfire Assistant certainly doesn't give the user any way to modify the habitability of a given planet.  Therefore, I came up with a house rule covering this specific situation. 

After the second nuclear war on Earth destroyed the Coalition and the USSR, I ruled that the population on Earth had been reduced to a medium population (800 population units), and that it could not support than that.  The population could still grow, of course, but the Earth couldn't support more than 800 PU's and the excess would have to be shipped out or allowed to die off.  As I have the growth turns set to allow population growth every five game turns, that meant that on every fifth turn the Earth's population would pass the limit and the excess would have to be shipped off.  Because this is really happening every month, but only being accounted for every five months, I ruled that the human governments would have to pay the full colonization cost of every PTU (Population transport unit) shipped to another planet, but they would not have to use the existing CFN to transport the PTU's to other systems.  This was because SA wouldn't allow transports from one government to pick up PU's belonging to another government, and while I could have worked that out, I just figured as long as everyone was paying it would all work out. 

This was both an incredible boon to humanity, and an immense drag to their economy at the same time.  As I noted in my recent post, the Colonial Union was spending approximately 25% of its monthly income relocating these PU's from Earth to the colonies.  And that's base cost for shipping them to the closest, cheapest location.  At first, the various human nations were shipping them to outer colony worlds to bolster their populations to the critical 400 PU level, so the cost was much higher.  Once a colony reaches that level it can do all sorts of things, including, critically, ship out new colonies from its own population without quickly depleting its population.  This was great, and all of the human states quickly built up several systems that could support independent colonization.  This gave them an advantage over the other races.  For example, the oldest D'Bringi colony has only grown to 341 PU at this point, well short of being able to support additional colonization, while the humans have multiple colonies capable of do that.

Having said that, though, the downside is the incredible cost.  Every five months the humans have to deal with another wave of refugees, and their economy, as much as it depended on the influx of new population units, was stressed to the maximum trying to do everything they wanted to do and pay for the refugees.  Something had to change. 

Finally, outside the game, I became concerned that the humans were inadvertently "gaming the system".  Starfire is set up to favor small colonies over large.  Larger populations grow more slowly, and larger populations produce less income per person than smaller populations.  I recently realized that the humans were taking advantage of that.  The Rehorish and the D'Bringi both have much larger populations in terms of numbers of people, and in terms of the size of their largest population centers, but this isn't accurately reflected in a comparison of the production of both sides.  So, for within game reasons, and meta reasons, I decided to put an end to the flow of refugees from Earth. 

Kurt

[misanthropope]

i mean, you work with what you have.  the situation as reflected in the game isn't as bad for humanity as the Earth conditions you're trying to simulate, but it's still enormously worse than having a very large pop on undespoiled terra.  with the house rule growth rate reduction thats a substantial purely narrative-driven headwind for the monkey boys.

i don't recall the long term effects of amalgamation in 3e, but if its at all like subsequent editions, if you shatter a polity (humanity) into many pieces and let them trade-and-amalgamate back together they gain considerable strength at little expense through the process.   depending on edition differences, there is some potential for inadvertent gaming going on, there.

i had always thought the real possibility for a major reversal on the d'bringi side would have been due to developing rivalry between the d'bringi and the roaches.  THAT doesn't seem to be a problem anymore.  roaches have been an instrument of removing weakness from the d'bringi doctrines as well as now adding crew quality bonuses and a huge chunk of raw economy.  in a true PVP campaign this is kind of the moment when one player is Officially Winning (TM).

[Kurt (OP)]

i mean, you work with what you have.  the situation as reflected in the game isn't as bad for humanity as the Earth conditions you're trying to simulate, but it's still enormously worse than having a very large pop on undespoiled terra.  with the house rule growth rate reduction thats a substantial purely narrative-driven headwind for the monkey boys.

i don't recall the long term effects of amalgamation in 3e, but if its at all like subsequent editions, if you shatter a polity (humanity) into many pieces and let them trade-and-amalgamate back together they gain considerable strength at little expense through the process.   depending on edition differences, there is some potential for inadvertent gaming going on, there.

i had always thought the real possibility for a major reversal on the d'bringi side would have been due to developing rivalry between the d'bringi and the roaches.  THAT doesn't seem to be a problem anymore.  roaches have been an instrument of removing weakness from the d'bringi doctrines as well as now adding crew quality bonuses and a huge chunk of raw economy.  in a true PVP campaign this is kind of the moment when one player is Officially Winning (TM).

Ironically, the D'Bringi Alliance did just well enough that they avoided much worse outcomes.  If they had managed to penetrate the Solar System's defenses and defeat the Coalition and the USSR (or either individually), the Rehorish and the D'Bringi would almost certainly fell to fighting over the spoils, which would have triggered an interstellar war between the two of them and might have given humanity time to recover.  If they had been soundly defeated but not conquered, the D'Bringi would almost certainly have had a civil war as the clans fought it out, or the Keepers tried to assert control, giving the Rehorish the choice of aiding one side or another, or conquering the whole lot, almost certainly leaving humanity on top to face the Mintek threat (and others). 

As it is, you are correct, the Rehorish have helped the D'Bringi overcome some inefficiencies in their culture, and joined with them to create a new government.  The Rehorish did not really want to do this, but they felt they had no choice and that they were surrounded by enemies. 

If this was a PVP game, it likely would have been over long ago.  Once a player senses weakness, there is no reason to stop attacking.  In a roleplaying game like this, though, there are all sorts of reasons that might pop up for not pushing forward even when you have the advantage.  The D'Bringi Alliance could have ended everything and conquered Earth several times, but the two main allies didn't really trust each other and so kept delaying attacks that could have been decisive because they wanted to make sure that they had an advantage over their 'allies'. 

[Migi]

I'm quite surprised to see the Rheorish merge with the D'Bringi, I figured their superiority complex would prevent them from taking that path and the Clans seemed like they might be sufficiently self aggrandizing to refuse in spite of the hard logic in favour.
Anyway it seems like a stable long term government is being formed by the most advanced and richest powers.
However keeping separate fleets suggests that the integration isn't as close as it sounds?
Also you mentioned that Rheorish fleets were better trained, is that something that the new government will inherit or is it based on the crew species?

The Zir are taking a huge risk by not scanning all the systems they find, there could be anything lurking in those systems.
Also withholding information about the Alliance enemies sounds like an excellent way to get accused of treason and nuked from orbit 'pour encourager les autres'.

[Kurt (OP)]

I'm quite surprised to see the Rheorish merge with the D'Bringi, I figured their superiority complex would prevent them from taking that path and the Clans seemed like they might be sufficiently self aggrandizing to refuse in spite of the hard logic in favour.

I did not intend originally to allow the Rehorish and the D'Bringi to amalgamate for the very reasons you state.  However, as the campaign pushed forward and events evolved, both races came to see the advantages of such a merger, and the disadvantages of staying separate.  For the D'Bringi, they face a huge disadvantage because they can only use type ST planets.  The majority of habitable planets found are type T, which puts the D'Bringi at a continuing disadvantage moving forward.  They must either conquer all possible opponents early, before they are outgrown, or amalgamate them.  For the Rehorish, they faced the reality that the D'Bringi were going to amalgamate first the T'Pau, and then almost certainly the Torqual and Doraz, and once they did that the Rehorish would be reduced to a minor ally, on the outside of important decisions.  Better to get in on the ground floor, rather than be left looking in from the outside. 

Anyway it seems like a stable long term government is being formed by the most advanced and richest powers.
However keeping separate fleets suggests that the integration isn't as close as it sounds?
Also you mentioned that Rheorish fleets were better trained, is that something that the new government will inherit or is it based on the crew species?

The Rehorish and D'Bringi have successfully amalgamated, but it will be some time before they have established a stable, long-term, government.  Essentially, they have the basic framework in place, but it will be some time before everything is organized and works well.  In addition, this is going to cause some friction with their allies, as they will have to deal with a fundamental change in the Alliance's power balance.  The T'Pau, in particular, might become a bit prickly as they really wanted to become the first to amalgamate with the D'Bringi, vaulting them into a senior position in the Alliance, second only to the D'Bringi themselves.  Now they will have to settle for something less.  It won't alienate them completely, but they aren't happy about this. 

The racial grade of the Rehorish fleets were elite, while the D'Bringi were average.  Because the Rehorish were the larger partner, technically they absorbed the D'Bringi, so by the rules the resulting merged race retains the Rehorish elite standard.  I felt this was a bit unrealistic, so for now the merged Rehorish-D'Bringi Alliance has a racial grade of crack.  At some point in the future they may regain the elite rating, but they will have to work for it. 

The Zir are taking a huge risk by not scanning all the systems they find, there could be anything lurking in those systems.
Also withholding information about the Alliance enemies sounds like an excellent way to get accused of treason and nuked from orbit 'pour encourager les autres'.

The Zir are academics, with little experience and a pie in the sky attitude.  They have little trust for the D'Bringi Alliance, and only signed the treaty with them because they feared the ferocious aliens the D'Bringi told them about.  Since becoming a part of the Alliance, the Zir have come to believe that the D'Bringi may be the ferocious aggressors that they were warned about, but at this point they are stuck.  They have enough information about the other races in the Alliance to know that they could not leave the Alliance without provoking a war of conquest that they could not hope to oppose.  So instead, they hope to attain a senior position in the Alliance by making peace with their enemies and by bringing new races into the Alliance.  If they can do that then they can hope to influence the Alliance's policies towards peaceful co-existence.  It was just their bad luck that two of the three races they contacted happened to be the Alliance's worst enemies. 

A quick note about the Zir.  The Zir's stats are as follows:
Racial Militancy: 22
Racial Determination: 32
Racial Chauvinism: 3

Their government is a "Contemplative" government, which is a zero-success type government, which means that none of the racial stats are dominant.  The description for the Contemplative (non)-Government (I'm not kidding, it actually has the "non" part in the rules), basically makes it clear that their government is marked by inaction and limits itself to "Suggestions" to its citizens about how to act.  This doesn't seem like they are set up for success, at all. 

Kurt

[Migi]

Thanks for your quick and detailed reply, it sounds like there is a new axis of strain developing in the alliance between the minor species and the two majors while the strain between the two majors is reduced but not eliminated.

My only quibble about the Zir is that they sound risk averse (which might be me projecting), but are embarking on a rather risky strategy to gain prestige/rank within the Alliance.

Not set up for success seems like a good summary though! 

[Paul M]

I got sidelined by reality and just finished getting caught up...

Three things sorta stand out:
1.  With reduced growth rates it is nearly a requirement to force grow colonies to medium (400 PU) status.  This likely flies in the face of conventional SF wisdom but both Starslayer and I came to this same conclusion in our game.  The Shanirian's have been relying a bit too much on growth as they were forced to expand their fleet.  But basically I got 2 races that were seriously in the red income wise and both of them are now in a good economic state due to this concentrated effort to both colonize and push up benign world populations.  Also hostile worlds are worth settling due to the surplus population they produce on growth turns that can be used for in-system colonization...the Drakes have completely filled several systems and in particular if you allow asteroid colonies they are a great seed source.   The D'bringi ignoring these worlds...has cost them a lot of money.

2.  Did you roll for the commander who attacked the crabs?  I mean that was a very bad case of snatching total defeat out of the jaws of victory....unless those PDCs had a lot more armour than I can believe the DDs could wipe them out...then wipe out the orbital stations...and then and only then does the fleet need to close in...basically when the DDs are out of missiles.  If the ESs charged the whole fleet can withdraw ahead of them using their XOs to slow the ESs down to the point where they can't close the distance.   Charging forwards...and even letting the BM equipped ground based launchers have any chance to hit???  Madness...and the DDs can cycle in and out...they had shields their targets not.  The crabs could not be crushed without losses but there is no reason for the losses they took.

3.  Did you forget the detection range of F0s?  I'm baffled by how they managed to find the ships they supposedly attacked...   I used to always send along an ast with each F0 strike where the ast was the eyes and even that is only range 20.  Once the Mimbarii ships transited out the fighters were effectively blind...if they were in 6 hexs of the CTs they could follow those but the fleet could just turn away from them.  They could have played cat and mouse with the nearsighted F0s till their lifesupport was up.

A more general comment about fighters is that they are rich man's weapons.  F0s are well attrition weapons since the only thing they can do is close to FR range...and under most circumstances that will result in a lot of dead fighters...even though it is going to take out ships unless the fighters are insufficient and should not be deployed.  This means the races that consider them secondary support systems likely have to consider very carefully how and against what they deploy their fighters.  There are a lot of hidden costs with fighters...magazines costing more than the carrier, the upgrade to new fighters, the reduced effectiveness of the damn things till fM2LT2 shows up.  UTM nerfed them seriously with Zi, Ai, S0, !2 and Dz.  It is clear that how they are deployed has to change from what was typical in the past but I must admit I'm not sure the best way to do so.  Basically an X fighter squadrons with weapon # are required to destroy ship type xx table needs to be generated for each race.  Based on that they can then determine how many fighters they want to attach to each force.  But affording enough of them to be decisive I think will be the constant issue.