Author Topic: Tooth to Tail Ratio  (Read 3643 times)

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Offline gpt3 (OP)

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Tooth to Tail Ratio
« on: May 08, 2022, 03:50:24 PM »
I was recently reading this blog post, which muses on how military "tooth" (the number of people involved in combat) to "tail" (the number of people involved in logistics) ratios have changed over time: https://acoup.blog/2022/04/22/fireside-friday-april-22-2022/.

It inspired me to take a look at Aurora's ratios. For example, let's consider the starting fleet from Steve's Twelve Colonies campaign:

Quote
Colonial Fleet (as of January 2300)
6x Galactica class Battlestar: Ares, Athena, Atlantia,  Columbia, Galactica, Solaris
4x Valkyrie class Battlestar: Aesir, Kraken, Valkyrie, Vanir
2x Loki class Support Vessel: Loki, Freya
4x Poseidon class Troop Transport: Aeolus, Antaeus, Amphitrite, Poseidon
4x Tylium class Replenishment Ship: Demetrius, Gideon, Hitei Kan, Tylium
4x Hermes class Jump Tender: Dionysus, Hermes, Palaestra, Rhadamanthus
6x Triton class Stabilisation Ship: Charon, Galatea, Nereid, Proteus, Thalassa, Triton
4x Atlas class Tug: Astraeus, Atlas, Cronus, Oceanus
5x Traveller class Freighter
5x Olympic class Colony Ship
2x Aether class Terraforming Station
2x Daru Mozu Fuel Harvester Station
12x Raptor-G
12x Raptor-R
12x Raptor-M
32x Raptor-S
408x Viper MK I
ClassTotal CrewCategory
6x Galactica8790Tooth
4x Valkyrie2684Tooth
2x Loki1070Tail
4x Poseidon1292Tooth
4x Tylium1184Tail
4x Hermes1580Tail
6x Triton2280Tail
4x Atlas2984Tail
5x Traveller1265Tail
5x Olympic1840Tail
2x Aether1032Tail
2x Daru Mozu1072Tail
12x Raptor-G288Tail
12x Raptor-R288Tail
12x Raptor-M264Tooth
32x Raptor-S832Tail
408x Viper MK I916Tooth

This yields a total of 13946 teeth and 15815 tails, a ratio of about 1:1.13, which seems similar to early industrial era armies. Of course, the tonnage ratio is probably something closer to 1:10.

That said, the above doesn't include the broader military-industrial complex. For example, a player race starting with two billion population will have 160 fighter factories and 400 ordnance factories employing 28 million people. This would easily drop the tooth:tail ratio down below 1:1000.
 

Offline Garfunkel

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Re: Tooth to Tail Ratio
« Reply #1 on: May 08, 2022, 08:27:00 PM »
Interesting look!

For those who don't know, the reason why the tail is getting bigger while the teeth are getting fewer is that each tooth has improved massively in performance over time which has also brought an equal increase in required support.

Even up to the Napoleonic wars, armies foraged as much as carried food with them. A single blacksmith was enough to keep a hundred horses shoed through a campaign. A sharpshooter might not use more than twenty bullets in a battle. Mechanization changed that. A single rifleman with an automatic rifle and a grenade launcher, a radio and binoculars, a bulletproof vest and a chemical warfare kit requires massively more support in order to provide for him, but he's also as powerful and better informed as a whole company of musketeers. Same with vehicles, ships and, the current apex of technological warfare, jet planes filled with electronics.
 
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Offline ranger044

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Re: Tooth to Tail Ratio
« Reply #2 on: May 08, 2022, 10:45:36 PM »
In a similar vein, this is why I design my ground units the way I do when I play Aurora. If a rifle battalion is ~1000 personnel, give or take depending on nation, time period, deployment, etc. I try to keep my combat units somewhere between 40-60% for flavor purposes. Sometimes this yields a less than optimal formation, but it simply feels better. Lately I've been making regiments my smallest units to offset the rp vs optimal dilemma.

Although this is somewhat represented in the tonnage for units, a rifleman requiring 5 tons of displacement seems pretty high for their internal supply to only a few unsupported combat rounds. I know Steve modeled the numbers off of real life reports, but even then that seems misleadingly high. I don't think I personally carried enough equipment, or ate enough food for that matter, to make up 5 tons of displacement when I served. I could be wrong but still.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2022, 10:52:14 PM by ranger044 »
 
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Offline alex_brunius

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Re: Tooth to Tail Ratio
« Reply #3 on: May 09, 2022, 01:49:10 AM »
I don't think I personally carried enough equipment, or ate enough food for that matter, to make up 5 tons of displacement when I served. I could be wrong but still.

When you start to factor in the size of the kitchen/cooks serving you food, the cleaning facilities to clean your clothes, the maintenance facilities to keep your equipment and vehicles in working order and the logistics/vehicles and personel to move all that stuff to the front... it starts to make more sense :)

And that is just the first layer, because all the support personell also need support of their own ( they also need to eat, clean clothes, working vehicles, equipment and logistics ).
 
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Offline Garfunkel

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Re: Tooth to Tail Ratio
« Reply #4 on: May 09, 2022, 02:35:52 AM »
And that military unit can survive on an airless moon or a Venusian hell-world as well, so the 5 tons must include some sort of environmental protection too.
 
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Offline alex_brunius

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Re: Tooth to Tail Ratio
« Reply #5 on: May 09, 2022, 03:13:41 AM »
Just as a fun exercice I wanted to compare how much shipping a WW2 division required for a long distance invasion.

Okinawa fits the bill and has detailed enough Naval OOB where exact ships connected to divisions are visible:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Okinawa_naval_order_of_battle

For example the US 7:th Division ( about 15000 men +1000 vehicles ) required the following shipping according to the wiki link above:
16x attack transports (~6k ton capacity)
5x attack cargo (~7k ton capacity)
1x vehicle landing ship (~3k ton capacity)
1x dock landing ship (~3k ton capacity)
30x landing ship tank (2.1k ton capacity)
22x landing ship medium (0.4k ton capacity)
===============
Sum roughly: 96+35+3+3+63+9 = 209k ton capacity.

If we use Aurora measurements then we would get about:
15000 riflemen (5ton) = 75k ton
and 1000 vehicles (30ton) = 30k ton
So a total of 105k ton

But if we want to make a contested invasion we would also need to double the capacity ( both for the transportation voyage and for the dropships )... So we would end up with 210k ton needed.

 
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Online Steve Walmsley

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Re: Tooth to Tail Ratio
« Reply #6 on: May 09, 2022, 05:34:41 AM »
A couple of weeks ago I was in Tewkesbury (in the motorhome). Every July they re-enact the Battle of Tewkesbury from 1471, a major battle from the Wars of the Roses. However, while I was there they had a preview event, which was all about arms and armour. They had everything from 'peasants' with spears to fully armoured knights on horseback, including a couple of Polish Winged Hussars, which looked very impressive, and even a functioning cannon. I spent hours chatting to various experts about different weapon types, fighting tactics, cannon construction techniques, etc.

There were two expert Longbowmen, using medieval war bows and I had an interesting discussion about the progression of firearms vs longbows. By the time of Waterloo, the British Army was using the Brown Bess musket. Based on several comparative shoots, he said the longbow was more accurate than the musket. I happened to know that the Brown Bess could shoot 3-4 rounds per minute so I asked him about his own accurate rate of fire, and he thought maybe six arrows a minute.

So, I was pondering afterwards that if the longbow was more accurate, with a higher rate of fire, why (strange as it might seem) was the British Army not using longbows at the Battle of Waterloo. I can think of only three reason, but it would be interesting to hear alternative opinions

Training: I suspect that training someone to shoot accurately with a longbow is a lot harder than training them with a musket
Logistics: You can transport a lot more bullets than arrows given the same transport capacity.
Damage: Not completely convinced on one this one. Arrows have a 'muzzle velocity' of about 120 mph (I asked) whereas the Brown Bess is a 0.75" calibre firing a 1oz ball with a much higher muzzle velocity. Conversely, the war arrows are about three ounces (I asked that too) so the kinetic energy on impact is not going to be too far out.

Anyway, in conclusion, I though it might be interesting if logistics was partly the reason that the British Army didn't use longbows at Waterloo :)
 
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Online skoormit

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Re: Tooth to Tail Ratio
« Reply #7 on: May 09, 2022, 06:44:07 AM »
Training: I suspect that training someone to shoot accurately with a longbow is a lot harder than training them with a musket

I'm far from an expert, but I have read multiple threads in this subject area on /r/askhistorians, and training is the answer.
In the hands of a master, the longbow was a superior weapon to the musket.
But it takes years to develop competency with a longbow, let alone mastery.
Meanwhile, you can turn a green recruit into a competent musketeer in a couple months.
 
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Offline ZimRathbone

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Re: Tooth to Tail Ratio
« Reply #8 on: May 09, 2022, 09:02:21 AM »

So, I was pondering afterwards that if the longbow was more accurate, with a higher rate of fire, why (strange as it might seem) was the British Army not using longbows at the Battle of Waterloo. I can think of only three reason, but it would be interesting to hear alternative opinions

Training: I suspect that training someone to shoot accurately with a longbow is a lot harder than training them with a musket
Logistics: You can transport a lot more bullets than arrows given the same transport capacity.
Damage: Not completely convinced on one this one. Arrows have a 'muzzle velocity' of about 120 mph (I asked) whereas the Brown Bess is a 0.75" calibre firing a 1oz ball with a much higher muzzle velocity. Conversely, the war arrows are about three ounces (I asked that too) so the kinetic energy on impact is not going to be too far out.

Anyway, in conclusion, I though it might be interesting if logistics was partly the reason that the British Army didn't use longbows at Waterloo :)

speaking from personal experience, I was able to become a reasonable shot (ie hitting a 1 meter target 50% of the time at 50 meters range) in about 4 weeks with a firearm but doing this with a bow took about 2 years (in both cases practising about once a week for 3-4 hours).  admittedly this was 40-odd years ago in my uni days, but seemed comparable with my friends at the time.  I think training soldiers to become somewhat competent is a lot faster with guns than bows (and I suspect that its also a lot easier to mass produce guns than bows)
Slàinte,

Mike
 
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Offline xenoscepter

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Re: Tooth to Tail Ratio
« Reply #9 on: May 09, 2022, 10:04:44 AM »
 --- Armor Penetration as well. Guns went through mail a helluva lot more readily than arrows.
 

Offline kilo

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Re: Tooth to Tail Ratio
« Reply #10 on: May 09, 2022, 10:52:11 AM »
--- Armor Penetration as well. Guns went through mail a helluva lot more readily than arrows.

There are different points for arrows and bolts depending on the target you intend to engage. For thin armor plate they were using this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bodkin_point
The rectangular shape lets the plate rip in the corners instead of stretching the material, which would happen when using a point with a circular cross section.
There were the pointy field points for mail, which would enter through a single ring of the armor and broad heads for hunting.
 

Offline Andrew

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Re: Tooth to Tail Ratio
« Reply #11 on: May 09, 2022, 11:31:54 AM »
From what I remember of what was covered at the British Infantry museum , it was training. A good archer needed years of training and usually started off young, they also needed to be fairly fit and have good nutrition to get the musculature, an infantry man at Waterloo needed very little training, although British infantry did tend to be long service the continental armies did not to the same degree. This also factors into numbers the size of the British army in 1815 is a lot bigger than the medieval armies and it was easier to train the number of musket armed infantry than archers. Also of course musket armed infantry by the time of waterloo did not need protection by pikeman or heavy infantry they could stand off cavalry on their own while archers needed at least some protection against cavalry.
The tipping point in England seems to be the civil war when large armies were raised quickly from urban populations they could become effective Pike and Shot units in a few months while training them as archers would not have been finished before the war ended.
 
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Offline db48x

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Re: Tooth to Tail Ratio
« Reply #12 on: May 09, 2022, 07:57:18 PM »
I’ve heard that it was training as well. In fact, training is apparently the reason France didn’t use the longbow at all during the 100–years war, during which they had plenty of time to adopt the technology if they had wanted to. The reason I heard (I’ll have to find the book though), was that the longbow took so much training that the English government had to mandate that everyone’s leisure time be devoted to archery in order to have adequate manpower. The French could easily have done the same, but it seems that France was a lot less stable at the time and arming literally every citizen didn’t seem very appealing to the French. Also, France always had more Yew trees than England, so most of England’s longbows were built from Yew bought from France.

However, I don’t think that logistics matters at all here. As you pointed out, the weight of ammunition is not very different (a 3oz arrow vs a 1oz musket ball plus powder and wadding). The really important figure is the number of days of fighting compared to the number of days of marching. An army could march for a month before actually fighting anybody, and each man needs 2lbs of food every single day without fail. Every soldier can carry a few pounds of ammunition with them and the survivors will probably have some left over once the war is over. The same cannot be said for food. It wasn’t until WWII before every man in the army could be fed entirely from food shipped in from home.

As a side note, horses require 20 lbs per day of forage. You can definitely only send cavalry to places with grass and hay ready to feed them.
 

Offline Arwyn

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Re: Tooth to Tail Ratio
« Reply #13 on: May 10, 2022, 01:15:16 PM »
Its a combination of several factors, but it basically boils down to logistics and supply.

Longbows were built by specialized craftsman, and took years to go from start to finish, from curing to the actual construction. Added to that, only certain portions of the yew tree were usuable for bows, which required a lot of wood, but left a lot of wasted wood. This in turn pushed up demand and the constant demand for yew wood was literally stripping Europe bare of yew during the middle ages. For example in the space of a hundred years, the price of bowstaves rose from 2 pounds pe hundred bowstaves to 16 pounds per hundred. That was an astronomical increase in cost and not all of those bowstaves wound up being usable bows.

On top of that, the heaviest bows took a great deal of time to train up to use. To punch through increasingly heavy armor, took increasingly heavy draw weight bows. To use the top end heavy bows, the archer literally had to be trained for years to build up the strength to use them. They were so heavy that it literally left skeletal changes on the archers, and the heavy ossification that resulted took years to build up.

Conversely, 100 arquebuses cost double that, at 32 pounds, but anyone could be trained to use them in a matter of a few weeks, and gunners could be rated as proficient in several months time. One top of that, guns were much less fragile than bows, and even when broken, the barrel could be restocked and put back into service, which happened quite often. Even guns that were "shot out" were often rebored and put back into service

Compounding that, guns were far less expensive to feed. Led was cheap and plentiful, and most gunners would melt and cast their own bullets from common lead. A standard load for most gunners was 20 to 25 bullets and powder charges, and that load ran about a pound of lead, and a pound of powder and gear. A longbowman carried around 10 arrows for the same weight, and the arrows were bulkier to boot.

For early 16th century armies, that bulk and weight was a major factor. A typical horse or ox drawn cart could hold roughly 4 tons, or 8000 pounds of cargo. A cargo load of led shot for 500 gunners for a standard engagement was about 1000 pounds of led and powder. In simplistic terms, that was eight engagements for a unit of 500. One top of that, there was 2 pounds of food per man per day in general rations carried. That amounted to another oxcart for that unit for a days rations, on top of what was carried by the soldier. So, roughly a bit over a week of rations per cart. So for a month of campaigning, it would be usual for 5 carts of supplies to maintain a unit of 500 gunners. However, those same carts requited fodder for the draft animals, around 20 pounds per day per animal. That amounted to another cart in fodder for a month, or another wagon. So, six wagons for a month.


Compare that to a similar unit of longbowmen. Longbowman would be expected to expend 60 to 72 arrows per engagement. That is roughly one barrel of arrows per man, per engagement. That results in around 250 barrels of arrows carried to supply the unit of 500 per engagement. That was roughly 20 cartloads of arrows. This sounds like a lot, but for context the estimates are that the English had almost a million arrows at Agincourt. The cost to supply his archers with arrows for that campaign cost Henry the V 815 pounds sterling in todays money. He had to take out loans to finance that campaign.

In short, guns presented a massively compelling financial argument for most nations, and had the further advantage of cutting down the supply chain for trained soldiers. While more expensive per piece, they were far less expensive to actually use.

Needless to say, from a purely logistics standpoint, guns presented a MUCH cheaper logistical chain than longbows.
 
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Offline Demetrious

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Re: Tooth to Tail Ratio
« Reply #14 on: May 10, 2022, 03:55:40 PM »
Its a combination of several factors, but it basically boils down to logistics and supply.

Everything you just said was spot-on. The note about skeletal changes in longbow archers we have actual historical evidence for - the English warship Mary Rose sank in the Solent in 1545 and was well-preserved in the bottom mud. When she was raised in 1982 she provided an incredible wealth of archaeological finds, and one of them was the skeletal deformations of many of the crewmen that you mentioned; mirroring a lifetime of practice with heavy-draw bows.

The only thing I can add is that crossbows had similar problems - crossbows were very accurate and very powerful, and additionally didn't require that built-up strength to use, nor the experience to get the most out of the accuracy. Unfortunately the mechanisms that made that possible (especially for the heavier crossbows that used winches requiring gears/sprockets) were expensive to produce, and quarrels have most of the logistical/cost issues innate to arrows. (Note that melting and casting lead is trivial compared to making arrows - you have to balance the shaft, glue on the fletching just-so so it imparts a spin, etc. It's not difficult, but it's much harder to scale up to make lots and lots of ammo. Arwyn's logistical comparison via cartload is very informative vis a vis why early firearms quickly found favor with many armies even well before technological advancement had pushed the power and accuracy of the nascent technology past the peak of the preceding mature technology.

So, I was pondering afterwards that if the longbow was more accurate, with a higher rate of fire, why (strange as it might seem) was the British Army not using longbows at the Battle of Waterloo. I can think of only three reason, but it would be interesting to hear alternative opinions

Training: I suspect that training someone to shoot accurately with a longbow is a lot harder than training them with a musket
Logistics: You can transport a lot more bullets than arrows given the same transport capacity.
Damage: Not completely convinced on one this one. Arrows have a 'muzzle velocity' of about 120 mph (I asked) whereas the Brown Bess is a 0.75" calibre firing a 1oz ball with a much higher muzzle velocity. Conversely, the war arrows are about three ounces (I asked that too) so the kinetic energy on impact is not going to be too far out.

Anyway, in conclusion, I though it might be interesting if logistics was partly the reason that the British Army didn't use longbows at Waterloo :)

About a decade ago I was trying hard to develop my marksmanship skills in my spare time, (as we are wont to do here in Yankeeland) and was frustrated about hitting a seeming wall in my skill, past which I couldn't advance. A more knowledgeable friend gave me a wink and suggested I try a better, more expensive brand of ammunition. To my surprise, my "groupings" (average miss distance from the bulls-eye) improved considerably. Before then I had been suffering (as many shooters do) from a blind faith in the quality of modern manufacturing technology; I'd had no idea that even modern weaponry can have as much mechanical deviation, from round to round, as it actually did. This had hindered my progress as I couldn't tell how much deviation was the firearm's fault, and how much was mine. The angular deviation of a projectile from the intended point of aim is measured in minutes-of-angle; 1/60th of a degree, which equals 1 inch of deviation at 100 yards. (Naturally, some prefer to use milliradians instead. :) ) It's a way of formally measuring the average deviation of the projectiles from your weapon.

Once I grasped this, I remembered a statistic I'd read many, many years ago - that the English longbow could put an arrow clean through the arrow-loop of a besieged castle, but it would require six shots to do so, on average. Being young at the time I hadn't grasped the significance - longbow archers in the Medieval era were true marksmen who were perfectly aware that they could "out-shoot their weapon" and even thought of accuracy in terms of averages just as modern marksmen do. Thus, they'd be familiar with the concept of "minute-of-Deer" accuracy espoused by some American recreational hunters - i.e. there's a non-insignificant cost investment required to acquire or modify to the "sub-MOA" standard, and for many applications it is in excess of requirements. Massed volley fire against enemy soldiers marching in ranks is certainly another example.

But of course it's not always so simple - as the arrow loop example shows, sieges are definitely one place where the more accurate weapon will pay dividends. See also the American Revolution, where the fabled "American longrifle" made good account of itself as a sniper's weapon against British officers, but who's excessive length and slow-loading (due to the rifling gripping the projectile as one tried to ram it home) simply made it inferior to muskets in mass combat, which reloaded faster and had only an area target to contend with. Ranged combat in Antiquity was usually massed shooters raining projectiles on men marching in ranks as well, and had the benefit of being hilariously cheap - rocks could be used for ammo, the sling was but a cord, and you can teach a man to hurl a rock in the general direction of the enemy, and what angle corresponds to what rough range, in an afternoon. And yet the slingers of the Balearic islands were fabled for their skill and much sought after as mercenaries; it was reputed that their children weren't allowed their supper until they could strike the bread loaf with their sling. In other words, they were renowned for their accuracy, which is of especial note as a sling is very easy to learn to use, but very hard to master, to gain real accuracy with against a single point target. Clearly, accuracy was of some concern to armies even in Antiquity.

So while the brutal realities of economies-of-scale and logistics will always have their say, the finer points of marksmanship have mattered as well, and our forebears were every bit as knowledgeable about them as we are. Longbows lingered on for a good while even after gunpowder assumed a primary role in war and it's not hard to see why.
 
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