In addition, if you don't like the proposal just say so. I am not going to get my feelings hurt.
It is good in the way that we already get a bell-curve distribution, but there are flaws in:
- not accounting for multiple teams / heightened effort, which a larger nation should be able to put out
- not involving staff (perfect opportunity to finally give that intel-officer purpose)
- only allowing a single event in a certain time scale, while realistically intel-war might be more intense in some cases
I pretty much took over the severity ranking of your result table though, but also added some things, mostly coming from our RP opportunities here.
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(in the following, green text is explanation for a certain mechanic's existence/purpose)
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TLDR: there is a super short summary at the end for good overview instead of explanation. The whole section before the table can essentially be skipped and is only for further interest or to clear up missunderstanding)
Concerning IntelThis espionage system attempts to balance between active spying and manipulation, and the counter-intelligence in such way, that defense is working slightly more reliably, but also doesn't completely eliminate the chance of even a weak attempt possibly getting through here and there. This should keep the unwanted ingame need to maximize the sector at bay, while making everything about it more interesting. It also gives much more excitement to the position "intelligence-minister" or however a faction governs this.
Skill point generationOfficer skill is the only factor that determines the overall chance of success. Firstly, a nation features a counter-intelligence score determined by the best intelligence rating that any officer staff currently located in the capital system has.

The active spying efforts
against a nation on the other hand are determined by the Aurora skill level of the best team assigned against that particular nation.
{Obviously this favors defense, as you only need to depend on one highest skilled officer, who gets that multiplied by 5 ("a one man team" essentially), and then also receives eventual Admiral boni. A 60% officer could alone get a perfect rating of 300 this way.
On the high end of scores when closing in to 100%, the effects are even exponentially better, but can still be countered partly (s.b.)}Any additional team assigned hereby betters this score by only 1/5th.
{e.g. Two teams of 180 and 150 would generate a total score of 210 (=180+150/5) }Any espionage team that is not assigned, and even additional staff on the other hand contribute to defense in the same way, except that staff only brings about 1/10th of the usual score.
{A staff of score 200 with an additional staff of score 140 and an unassigned team of score 120 would thus accumulate to 238 (=200+14+24) }Setting things up like this essentially ensures that even a small and weak nation can have near impenetrable defense at first, but a really dedicated and large nation could still muster up the resource to punch through if it really sacrifices for that.Now, every year an espionage team had been assigned to operate against another nation, it tests its skill randomly with a chance that is:

If the attack succeeds, the counter-intel rolls against their own defense score with the same math involved. Should the counter-intel fail, the attacking side gets 1 "Intel-Point" to be used later, and receives another attack throw against the same chance, but with a ceiling of 90% for the chance.
{...so to make infinite wins from theoretic score 300 teams going up against no defenses impossible}Example:
The "NSA-rulez" espionage team has a total score of 240, granting it 80% chance to succeed.
Konteradmiral "Iron Curtain" Dimitri had an additional team (rating 75) placed for internal affairs, so that his staff's rating of 155 gained another 15 points for a total of 170, so ~57%.
The NSA throws 64 and succeeds, while Dimitri throws a 69 in jubilation, but fails.
NSA gets 1 Intel-Point and gets to try again, this time throwing 74, - another success.
Dimitri, slowly adapting to the concept that lower means better, receives a 11, stopping the second incursion.
This year ends with NSA gaining 1 Intel Point to spend later.In addition to the above, a score higher than 300 for the attacking team means that this additional value gets deducted from the enemy counter-intelligence.
Example:
NSA now involves german and swedish secret services in its operations, giving it an amazing score of 330 to breach the motherland's motherboards.
Not expecting this degree of puppeteering, Dimitri has his team's rating reduced to mere 140, so ~47%.
While NSA doesn't even have to make a first throw due to 100% success chance, Dimitri fails in his defense with just a 48.
"Borscht and Adidas!" he screams, as NSA prepares for it's second incursion on a 90% chance.(the highest for follow-ups)
They throw a 3 and continue to leak data, as Dimitri fails even the second throw with a 81.
This will continue on and on, granting an Intel-Point for every unparried success, until Dimitri finally rolls 47 or lower, or NSA does get a higher result than 90.Intel-PointsIntel-Points are most securely spent immediately, but can also tried to be banked to save up for greater leaks or operations.
If an Intel-Point is at the end of the year not spent by a team, and new points are getting rolled, every such Intel-Point must pass against a score of the highest intel staff score times five:

Contrary to counter-intelligence, this score cannot be aided by other teams or staff. Only the highest counts.
This mechanic makes sure that the higher tier infiltration are possible, but also really difficult to achieve for an unskilled agency. Saving up should be risky, and big events something dramatic, so lesser meddling hopefully stays more common with this.Intel-Points can be spent in various ways, and nothing speaks against "purchasing" a particular event multiple times.
Below is a table of what a certain level of effort can gain. (I went a bit OCD in trying to figure this out, so, uhm, it has gotten longer, and I am not even sure of correctness)
Cost| | Survey | Military | Government | Science | Sabotage |
1 | Reveal one jump point's general location, or one bodies minerals | Reveal a snippet of general design information about a design of choice (e.g. "Beam/Missile armed", "Long/short range", "Has ECM", "weak armor" etc.)
-Secret Project: Especially shield a design against enemy intelligence. Costs for any info rise by one category, and the nation gets informed when a leak still happens. | One of those: -Name all the political and military leaders with their corresponding position
-Generalized industrial of last year ("had mostly constructed mines, then some PDC")
-Generalized future plans(no obligation to keep them), like "colonize Mars", "expand mining sites or just Earth". Nothing military.
- Mess with voting (Votings of next year get a "Ghost-vote" equivalent of one player in random directions. Ghost-votes cannot exceed current maximum votes, so 50:50 order and chaos at max. Suffering nation is aware) | -Current area focus (Logistics, Power, etc.) revealed with hindsight on last years occupation
-Misdirection: Leave 5% of research labs pursuing random theoretic technology for next year. | Either: - hinder Earth mining (reduce current stock of a single resource by 20% of years income)
- hinder mining delivery (reduce stock of all resources by 20% of an external mining site)
- hinder construction (reduce maximum construction by 5%, which are now free; or 10% if either choosing ordnance or fighter production)
|
2 | -Reveal direction of survey (which systems survey ships are in or heading to)
-Reveal an archeology site or science bonus site (you get informed that there is one once another 2+ point purchase in survey espionage had been made, but have to buy the information then)
-Reveal specifics about a science vessel design if not armed | -Reveal number of ground troops on a colony or Earth
-Reveal general sets of of ammunition ("2 designs for AMM, 1 ASM, one larger torpedo, 1 buoy/mine"), or reveal specifics of a certain type ("identify one of the AMMs please")
-Reveal a single exact number about a chosen ship/PDC design (Speed, one sensor strength, armor strength, range, even crew number)
-Tell the location and heading of a fleet currently out of sight (sharpness: "tell system" if in uninhabited one, or "tell body/vicinity to body" in colonized systems) | -Printout of current amounts of mines and factories on a colony
-Current population number of a colony, along with growth rate and Administrator skills -Reveal an unknown colony location (information about unknown colony sheer existence is leaked by purchasing 2+ point events in the government section elsewhere)
-Receive information about all officers asked for (would ask for whole list, but is difficult to do in Aurora; instead maybe "leading scientists of every area" and "all task group leading fleet officers and the staff officers" | -Exact reading of current research projects
-Information about the progress in a sector of technology ("Propulsion stands roughly at TL3" or "has just entered construction TL2")
-Inquire about existence of a certain tech ("have they jump gate const. module?")
| -as in Intel 1, but steal the resources instead of just hindering.
-delay a fleets movement for 1 month (not against fighting fleets; if combat breaks out somewhere and the fleet wishes to join, it is freed of the delay; Also: fleets of greater importance or surveillance may cost much more Intel Points - this would need consultation with Drgong)
-precise sensor dodging (detection immunity for either a certain chosen fleet, or against a certain sensor/or colony. Cannot chose fleets entangled in combat. Lasts for sensor field entry to exit, or 1 month per purchase if the fleet doesn't plan to move out) |
4 | -Reveal a complete system survey, minerals+JP
-Space Jam: Block a system for (further) survey attempts (block can be relieved by other side paying 2 points later on) | -Gain complete design information about a certain ship. This costs 2 points more if it concerns a ship with much innovation compared to other known designs of that nation (engines, or mostly updated weaponry), and another 2 points more if it is the first ship to ever be analyzed for that faction
-Revoke transfer of land troops: Nation cannot transfer troops this year to places where the attacker has ground unit too
-False orders: Send a couple ships on a 10b detour, or lock a couple more in task force training. Should conflict break out, they are free to act again.
-Mix up officer assignment of a ship. Either random, or a specific officer if he/she is known and not serving as staff. | -Gain a complete screen of a single colony, seeing the whole colony summary window, the production queue, and the stockpiles
-Industrial espionage: Receive 5% of their wealth for the next year as "gift"
-Budget Cut: Disband a ground battalion (no brigade or division command; can come cheaper with rising amounts of forces)
-Maintain surveillance about votes for a year, getting sketchy information whenever votes happen and about what in general, but not the outcome.
-Shut down fuel refineries on a colony for a year.(cost 8 when chosen consecutively) | -Learn what technologies of a whole line of research the nation knows so far. (e.g. "laser focal strength") | -Sabotage a random ship and apply damage to it.(warhead techx10??) To pick out a singular ship, the Intel costs move one category up.
-Laxatives, bought doctors, bribery: Have a ship go without officer for a year, while having him on board.("not in working condition") |
8 | -Synchronize with that nation's whole galactic survey archive
-Take over a freighter-fleet bringing shipments from a ruin planet or alien wrecks (preferably loaded with components), then give it back after unloading in own colony | -Treason and Moles: A chosen ship or PDC(!) does not fire during first eventual engagement next year.
-Informant: Know all the nation's ships position if needed.(including camouflaged ones) This is a flash scan, but can be repeated for a year for just another 1 Intel Point every time.
-Gain technical information about all weapons of a certain type (e.g. all lasers or all launchers), or all available sensor designs | -Attempt to retire officer or government personnel (another intel check at half chance vs. counter-intel for this to confirm)
-Generate 1 player weight of vote in the other nation. Will be randomly assigned unless "surveillance" from tier 4 is also chosen, in which case detailed voting and knowledge about topic is granted. Existing Votes need 1 Intel Points per year to maintain. Maximum amount of bought votes to real ones is 50:50
-Propaganda Campaign: Take over 5% of their population. (?maybe too much?) | -Abduct a chosen scientist to your nation (another intel at half chance check vs. counter-intel for this to confirm)
-Gain a chosen technology, excluding racial tech(?)
-Shutdown research labs (obviously needs time to boot up again after this)
- Reveal information about all their engine designs, or all jump engines. | -Attempt to assassinate officer or government personnel (another intel check at half chance vs. counter-intel for this to confirm)
-Hijack ship of choice (another intel check vs. counter-intel for this to confirm)
-Destroy 10% of construction factories or mines on inhabited colony, or 20% of either refineries, ordnance or fighter factories. A unmanned mining colony may lose as much mines as the attacker has ordnance factories. |
The ultra rare events that make espionage teams do something in Aurora vanilla should just be considered bonus to that in my opinion.
The table is likely lacking a lot of possible things, but of course it can be adjusted, and also if you think stuff should be in different categories. Maybe science and survey should be the same thing.
All in all, the severity scale "feeling" is the most important thing about it here, because with that we can just ask Drgong if another thing that is not in the table would work later, and how much points he wants for that.

Let me now any criticism, and I hope I didn't make it appear too complex. It may look like that written out, but it is mostly one two simple checks whose scores are easy to look up.