"Significant genetic drift" is different from "noticeable genetic differences"

There are noticeable genetic differences between descendants of Eastern European Jews and Jews in general and other Eastern Europeans. )Prevalence of gene linked to Tay-Sachs, for example).

The more homogeneous the Eater worlds are, the more even slight differences would stand out.

But how long have they been distinct? Certainly much longer than 100 years.

Also, did these "original" jewish populations all come from a common, genetically equal source? I seriously doubt it.

 When looking at the eaters at the time of the break up, each population (home hive) was on the order of billions of individuals. Given the way they typically operate, likely all of these populations would have (statistically) identical genetic makeups - at the start of the 100 year period.

  All you would have a chance to detect after 100 years of divergence, given normal natural selection processes, would be cultural differences. And corpses are notoriously hard to get to talk...

  Even if you allow for very aggresive selection to different criteria on each home world, it is extremely unlikely to be able to genetically detect any differences in the time frame of 100 years. The only kinds of things that would be detectable would be missing population members (eg one population has no blonds, the other has no red heads). And given how little is known about the eaters, it would be almost impossible to find such differences.

  Consider my supporting evidence (based on 10 years of genetics research). I could find genetic differences between populations of test creatures only by using _extreme_ selection processes. These processes would likely wipe out the entire bug population before finding any such differences.  I frequently used processes that gave 1 survivor in 10^12 individuals. Adding all the eater home hives together, this would give something like 1 survivor per 4 home hives...

  (if you want to check the kinds of stuff I did, google linda reha-krantz and T4 - you will find some of my work there...)

Didn't i see a closed WP in the Xeon line of advance? The Eaters will wipe the colony, but can't find the WP back to Xeon Prime. We also don't know the length of the warp chain leading from the ASR to Xeon Prime.

The closed warp point is the one in the Eater colony, that the Xeon's originally used to enter the system.  The warp point in the Xeon colony system to the Xeon system is open and will be easily detected if the Eaters can complete their survey.

The Xeon connection with the ASR is both advantageous and problematic for the ASR.  The Xeon home system possesses a warp point that leads to the ASR's Le Harve system.  The warp point in the Le Harve system is closed, but the ASR has pin pointed its location and is building defenses.  The Le Harve system contains the ASR's single largest shipyard complex and is the ASR's gateway to the Colmar Area.  In addition, Le Harve is about four jumps (IIRC) from the ASR's capital system and is located in the heart of the ASR.

The loss of Le Harve would be very difficult for the ASR to recover from.  While the loss of the shipyards wouldn't be critical, given the numerous other shipyards located throughout the ASR, the system's central location makes it a critical target.  On the other hand, the Le Harve system is the focus of intense military activity and although there weren't any significant forces located there at the time of contact with the Eaters, there are very significant naval forces located in the surrounding areas.    

It looks like the ASR is going to hand the whole Axon situation to the Empire. This will not be a problem for the Empire, and it allows the ASR to wash their hands of the whole affair without even the appearance of committing genocide.

I do wonder if the Empire will want to get involved in the Xeon situation, as the Xeons and the Alliance are composed of humans, with other races added.

Yes, the Empire is quite happy about the situation, although it is going to require a significantly larger naval commitment on their part, now that the ASR is abandoning the field.  

As for the Xeons, the Empire probably would be interested, if they had a direct contact point, but they don't at least not for now.  

Kurt

One solution for the ASR is for its cloaked forces to simulate a closed warp point into the Xeon colony system, while really using cloak to move about.

That gambit might delay the Eaters as they resurvey, or if they hold their big slow fleet close to the presumed 'closed warp point'.

Regarding Cholet.  A prospective 18 ML, 12 SDs vs a combined 200 Monitors and SDs?  Adding in the CVs as roughly the value of MLs, that is still 200 to 65 in Big Boys.  Fleet costs are probably closer, and tech level and fighting on the defensive helps.

Another consideration for the Eater Hegemony.  If the ASR is forced to reveal the existence of cloaking technology, Home Hive 4 might not launch the attack at all.  After all, every communication with the Home Hive about the progress of the advance against the chaos race runs the risk that a cloaked ship could detect a transit and reveal at least the general location of the cloaked warship.

The problems of running an extended offensive deep into enemy space without being able to get additional resupply makes the Cholet line far less attractive.

The cloaking issue is a serious concern for the ASR.  Ideally, the ASR wants to preserve the secret of the cloak for as long as possible, which means limiting its use until a decisive battle is in the offing.  

Having said that, the ASR has a moral/philisophical problem.  The Xeons, for all that they got themselves into this mess through their scheming, are still a sentient race and there are billions of Xeon's on their home planet.  If the Eaters can survey the Xeon colony system quickly enough, and find the warp point to the Xeon system before the ASR and the Alliance can rush reinforcements into the area, then they will invade and destroy Xeon Prime, killing billions.  The ASR simply cannot allow that to happen and stay true to themselves.  

The ASR's cloaking tech will give them a perfect opportunity to raid Eater forces in the Xeon colony system as they attempt to survey the system.  If they are successful enough they will delay the Eaters long enough to allow the heavy ASR reinforcements that are already en route to arrive, but at the cost of giving up the existence of the cloak.  

On the other hand, the ASR defenders in Cholet have political issues complicating their defense.  For defending the ASR, having the strategic option of maintaining a Fleet In Being to force the Eaters to stay concentrated and focus only on one warp line at a time, and complicating Eater supply situation could be more militarily advantageous than an all or nothing defense of Cholet.  But politically that would be impossible.

In a similar vein, while the Alliance and ASR have overwhelming military power in overcoming the Xeon isolation and sovereignity issues, they will have to treat Xeon internal matters with serious kid gloves.  Xeon will be about as front stage on galactic affairs as Iraq is for Real Life world affairs.  Everybody watches the Big Boys to see how they behave.  News from Xeon is going to be very widely watched, so any mistreatment of Xeon could have negative political implications for both alliances.

This is true, for the most part.  The ASR has been dealing with the negative publicity of their handling of the Ayoun in the original incursion for years.  Their friends merely saw their handling of the Ayoun as a necessary evil given the situation, but it gave those who were either hostile or merely cautious much to think about, and directly resulted in at least some of what happened in the Colmar Sector when the Unified Races invaded.  

The ASR can be very self-righteous when it comes to the Eaters and associated issues.  

The initial responses of the ambassadors indicated something else to me.  Unless the Alliance puts a very negative spin on Xeon, people are going to be _very_ excited about the news from Xeon.  First, there is the prospect of a big ally coming in to help, and second, they will all be rooting for the Xeon defense to hold.  After all, if the Xeon line fails to hold, their new hope is pretty much dashed.  Unless they share warp point data with the ASR before the fall of Xeon, the ASR would be unable to break through to the Alliance.

From the ASR perspective, anything that looks like they are punishing a race that _immediately_ reversed all previous policies upon discovery of Eaters is going to be, hmmm, a problem too.

The situation is very complex.  The Xeon, at least on the surface, are doing everything that either the Alliance or the ASR could ask of them.  Given the fact that there is an Eater force int he adjacent system that out-masses their entire defense establishment by ten or fifteen times over, easily, that is understandable.  

The Alliance/ASR dynamic is simultaneously very simple and very complex.  The ASR represents everything the Alliance has ever dreamed of.  The Alliance has lived in the shadow of eventual annihilation by the Eaters, and the sure and certain knowledge that their economy was inevitably inferior to that of the Eaters, and that the situation was getting worse every month that went by, has been sapping their will and paralyzing them.  The Alliance's leadership is privy to studies that show conclusively that they cannot conceivably win any conflict with the Eaters, barring outside influence.  The ASR, a very large HT group of races dedicated to the destruction of the Eaters, is literally a dream come true for the Alliance.  

The ASR's point of view isn't so desperate, of course, but even so their feelings are clear.  A small alliance of races, started by heroic refugees from an Eater attack, bravely girding themselves for the inevitable Eater onslaught.  Its got everything, and it will appeal to the Gorandans and the ASR in general on a very basic level.  

The problem, and what makes the situation complex, is that it just looks too good to be true to both sides.  A little time would go a long ways towards solving that, but time is exactly what they don't have unless they defeat the initial Eater assault force.  

Kurt

What is the time scale of how long it has been since the warp points vanished?

I may be confusing it with a different campaign, (Charles and Will's campaign?) which had a similar premise.  Was there a period of 1,500 years in that campaign since the warp point disappearance?  In the Phoenix campaign it was much shorter, right?  A hundred years?

Correct, one hundred years, approximately.  

I think that if you completely separated a species for 1,500 years they would have a noticeably different spread in their genes.  Instead of 50% blondes, they might have 30% or 70% or whatever.  Given a significant sample size, you could make educated guesses as to how long certain populations were separated, at least ranking them in how long they were separated.

Hard to say whether there would be more of a divergence between the Hives and more typical races.  I imagine that the Hives practice serious eugenics, keeping the race to a particular standard.  But separate the Hives, they have different standards, and can't communicate with each other, so they could develop subtle differences that Hives that _are_ in contact with each other would not develop.

I imagine that researching the genome of the Eaters would be a significant Research Project.

I'm not sure that fifteen hundred years is enough for significant genetic drift to set in, but that is just my guess, and not even an educated one.  In any case, one hudnred years certainly isn't long enough, absent serious environmental factors that are not present in this case.  

Ultimately the ASR may not be able to figure it out at all, at least not easily.  

Kurt

Didn't i see a closed WP in the Xeon line of advance? The Eaters will wipe the colony, but can't find the WP back to Xeon Prime. We also don't know the length of the warp chain leading from the ASR to Xeon Prime.

It looks like the ASR is going to hand the whole Axon situation to the Empire. This will not be a problem for the Empire, and it allows the ASR to wash their hands of the whole affair without even the appearance of committing genocide.

I do wonder if the Empire will want to get involved in the Xeon situation, as the Xeons and the Alliance are composed of humans, with other races added.

What is the time scale of how long it has been since the warp points vanished?

I may be confusing it with a different campaign, (Charles and Will's campaign?) which had a similar premise.  Was there a period of 1,500 years in that campaign since the warp point disappearance?  In the Phoenix campaign it was much shorter, right?  A hundred years?

I think that if you completely separated a species for 1,500 years they would have a noticeably different spread in their genes.  Instead of 50% blondes, they might have 30% or 70% or whatever.  Given a significant sample size, you could make educated guesses as to how long certain populations were separated, at least ranking them in how long they were separated.

Hard to say whether there would be more of a divergence between the Hives and more typical races.  I imagine that the Hives practice serious eugenics, keeping the race to a particular standard.  But separate the Hives, they have different standards, and can't communicate with each other, so they could develop subtle differences that Hives that _are_ in contact with each other would not develop.

I imagine that researching the genome of the Eaters would be a significant Research Project.

One of the awkward things about that sentence is that it doesn't really describe the situation.  The Cholet front would not be a "new" war.  The Xeon front is the new war.  And that war isn't really a war of choice from the Eater's perspective.  They were intruded upon, the intruder must die.  The Cholet front isn't a new war, it is a restart of paused hostilities.

Perhaps, "New theatre of active operations" would be more accurate.