Ooof. And Humanity is so behind the curve that they'll get curb stomped once they encounter the Mintak.
Logically speaking, the Mintak have no chance of taking the Alliance - they're simply too small, and once the Alliance learns that fighters are a game changer, they'll go all in on carriers as well. Once both of those powers have carriers out the wazoo, Humanity is stuck playing catchup with no realistic way of doing so.
and:
Ooof. And Humanity is so behind the curve that they'll get curb stomped once they encounter the Mintak.
Yeah, humans have been boned ever since they blew up their own homeworld. For. You know. The second time.
You are both correct, if things go on as they have, with no new input.
The D'Bringi are working hard to tie all of their allies together in a web of alliances, so that they can amalgamate them all into a one large empire, under their control, of course. And they are being successful, so far. However, they have a long ways to go. The T'Pau are probably the closest to amalgamation, just needing to reach the same tech level, and will be a big boon to the D'Bringi economy. However, both the Torqual and the Doraz have a fair amount of R&D to do before they can be amalgamated, although they are good to have around as piggy banks, and sources of additional ships for the blockade fleet. However, their ships won't be as effective, both because of their lower tech and because they aren't very warlike. The Bir and the Chirq are even worse, not even HT yet and a resource sink to a greater or lessor extent. And the D'Bringi's main ally, the Rehorish, have agreed to a closer relationship, in the face of human and Mintek hostility, but still are not convinced that amalgamation is in their best interest.
As long as the allies haven't been amalgamated they still have at least some independence. A big setback could result in the Torqual and the Doraz going their own way, while successes will tend to keep them in the fold.
Even as the D'Bringi are working to unite their disparate races, the Humans are trying to unite their scattered colonies. You are right, they are falling behind, although the Colonial Union will start R&D soon, to at least ensure that they don't fall too far behind. And, it is always possible that the human colonies may ally themselves with the Bjering, who are ahead of them technologically, or some other race they haven't met yet. A lot can happen.
As I said, though, as things stand you are not wrong.
Kurt