I'm agreeing that Fortification needs to have some rebalancing. Speaking from in game experience here (so it's not as scientific/cut and dry as OP) but based on what I've noted in game:
For context, I'd previously battled over and secured the Orbit of a NPR planet (It was Barren, for future reference). I suspect they do have slightly better tech than me, so it was expected their troops would be better on a 1:1 basis.
Since I had secured Orbit of their planet, and being my first time I tried invading, I decided to go Overkill, since around the time, I didn't have much Logistics capability for Troop Transport. I had my fleet (Around 20 Ships, approximately 75,000T of Military power. Admittedly, they weren't all beam, and I was low on missiles from securing the planet so I didn't want to waste em) start bombarding the planet (Unguided, there wasn't any FFD) with Massed Railgun fire.
I had figured that since the main challenge of Orbital Bombardment was going to be actually hitting the Target, rather than not having enough Damage per shot, 15cm Railgun Spam would see me through.
I bombarded that planet until I drained all the MSP out of my fleet from repairing my Guns.
I don't have the exact numbers (Wasn't doing this Scientifically), but I think I killed about 500T of Ground Forces.
Round 2 with NPR Planet (After topping off my MSP & repairing my ships) and I decided to Invade, even though with my limited invasion capacity I probably going to be Equal in tonnage to the NPR Forces (I didn't know how much they had exactly). I figured that Bombardments previous poor performance was due to my lack of FFD, and so would Invade and have my ships perform Orbital Bombardment Support.
Long Story Short: It didn't go well. I kinda deserved that from half-assing it with my Troop numbers.
Annoyingly though, my Orbital Bombardment didn't perform anywhere as close as to what I was expecting from it.
I think over that entire invasion, I killed about 1,000T of their forces, for nearly 16,000T of mine. They started with approximately 15,000T, by the way.
Orbital Bombardment killed maybe 3-5 Infantry per round, with me throwing easily over 200+ shots from my Railgun spam per Ground Combat turn. If I hit something, it died, but I just could not hit a goddamn thing.
I call the invasion off, and started to build more Invasion ships, as planet has officially annoyed me.
Timeskip until I get more invasion ships, and I start things off by bringing in a second fleet along with my 1st (if a bit smaller than my First fleet) to Bombard the planet before my second invasion.
Same story as before, kill a handful of Infantry for an entire fleets worth of MSP and associated maintenance costs.
I then launch another invasion, now outnumbering the NPR's troops nearly 3:1.
They're (NPR) all Infantry of various levels of equipment, no Artillery support or nothing. I'd say 70% of them with Personal weapons, the remainder being AA, AT, Logi and Command troops.
I brought my Heavy armor Formations to counter their Infantry (and hopefully Low penetration) spam, I've also got Artillery support specifically supporting each of my Frontline Formations, and each Frontline formation has FFD Capabilities to let my Fleet hammer them.
Exact same thing as before happens, all 32,000T of my troops die in exchange for about 2,000T of theirs (Progress, I guess).
I may have noticed a bug where my FFD could still direct ship fire even after their unfortunate demise, but I'm not on the latest build even as of this post so it's kinda expected.
Even with all my ships firing (When they probably shouldn't be), I still could kill barely anything. To my Orbital Bombardment's credit, they did account for a significant portion of my kills in that invasion attempt, but since my entire fleet displaced more than all of the Ground Forces involved (Including both armies from both of my attempts and the NPR's) I really would have expected more.
Out of spite at this point, I had my fleet blindly bombard until they ran out of MSP again, and killed a small amount of infantry for my trouble.
TL,DR: Even with 3:1 advantage, on the terrain that gives the least defense to the defender (Barren), with an entire fleet bombarding them both before and during the invasion(s), the Defender got away practically unscathed (aside from the collateral damage).
I really dread to think about invading a Fortified jungle without 10:1 odds, a perfect counter to their army composition, a fleet of 100+ Railgun Barges and enough MSP that you have to Strip Mine Sol to build enough ships to carry it all to the planet.