Author Topic: Not a single survivor made it back home  (Read 7678 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline sloanjh

  • Global Moderator
  • Admiral of the Fleet
  • *****
  • Posts: 2805
  • Thanked: 112 times
  • 2020 Supporter 2020 Supporter : Donate for 2020
    2021 Supporter 2021 Supporter : Donate for 2021
Re: Not a single survivor made it back home
« Reply #30 on: May 30, 2010, 08:46:23 PM »
Quote from: "Steve Walmsley"
I am starting to think there is some type of math problem in my formula for this as people are reporting more wormholes appearing than I would expect. The chance of a new wormhole appearing in any any given 5-day increment should be the length of the increment in seconds divided by the number of seconds in 10 years. Which means the chance should be 1 or 2 new WH over ten years plus the ones that are generated as part of new systems

I can think of two reasons for the math to be correct yet you still see this effect:

1)  There's a selection effect: only those people who see a WH within a year or two post (complain) about it on the boards.  Since this will happen in 10-20% of the games played, you'd see a sizable number of reports....

2)  If the chance of the WH appearing is "per system", then if someone has explored 10 systems the'll see 10x as many WH.  If you want the WH appearance to act as if WH were appearing at a random rate throughout the galaxy (rather than preferentially in explored systems), then I think you need to put a "per system" into the probability too, for example "one WH per year per 100 systems" (which works out to the rate you mentioned above for 10 explored systems).  If we call this rate "R" (=0.01 in my example), then you would want to check every system with a probability of (R*#seconds_in_update)/(#seconds_in_year) - note that R/#seconds_in_year is a constant that can be pre-calculated as a double.  For newly explored systems, I would use (R*#seconds_since_WH_started_appearing)/(#seconds_in_year), i.e. after 100 years every system would have a WH.

I would vote for excluding Sol from the list, although if you use the uniform rate in my #2 is shouldn't matter whether you put it on or off - it would just be very bad luck.  If you do leave it off the list, I wouldn't tell anyone - that way people won't be tempted to avoid fortifying the home planet  :-)
 

Offline Steve Walmsley

  • Aurora Designer
  • Star Marshal
  • S
  • Posts: 11685
  • Thanked: 20499 times
Re: Not a single survivor made it back home
« Reply #31 on: May 30, 2010, 10:11:07 PM »
Its a single chance per universe. If a wormhole is created, a random existing system is selected. One of the reasons I did it this way is to give players a new reason to expand :). The main problem was that my wife was playing most of the time and wanted me to play the same tables, which were $1/$2 No Limit Holdem. I usually play larger games, especially the higher stakes Pot Limit Omaha games, and struggle a little in the lower limit games as it requires a different style of play. For starters, no one seems capable of folding anything and I normally bluff a lot, so that didn't work out so well. A good multi-street bluff tells a story and the player has to be able to understand the story in order for him to decide he is behind and fold. If the opponents are simply not paying attention and can't fold, then that is just a creative way to lose money. At $1/$2 it seems to be a case of simply waiting for a good hand and then betting a lot, even though it is obvious what you have, which is fine if you have good hands or at least the patiance to wait for them. In aggressive, higher stakes games you can have a winning session without ever having good cards; mainly because players in those games have some logic to their actions and you can usually figure out what everyone has.

An example of my frustrating $1/$2 games. I have AQ and raise with it. I get called and the flop comes down QT9. I bet the flop and get called by a flambouyant Pakistani businessman. The turn is an 8, putting four to a straight on board (QT98). He now bets into me for about $50, representing the missing J. I am picking up tells and still think the Q is winning so I call. He goes all in on the 4 river for $115. I still think he has nothing but bottom pair on the flop and I am still picking up bluffing tells so I call the $115 and say "Show me your 9". He turns over 94o, starts to push his cards into the muck and says "great call". Then one of the other players says "You have two pair!". The Pakistani looks down and realises the river card paired his 4, giving him two pair. So he thought he was bluffing and I read him as thinking he was bluffing. In fact, he was winning and didn't realise it - aaagh! Welcome to the Vegas $1/$2 games.

When I was playing the higher stakes games alone after Linda went to bed I did much better :). I also learned Limit Omaha HiLo, which we don't play at all in the UK (just Pot limit HiLo here), which was a refreshing change and I even made some money in that game.

Steve
 

Offline Shade

  • Leading Rate
  • *
  • S
  • Posts: 8
Re: Not a single survivor made it back home
« Reply #32 on: June 19, 2010, 06:17:44 AM »
A wormhole opened up in a system that I was looking forward to colonising. It had a near-Earth planet that just needed a little warmth, and a whole mess of minerals. On top of that, there was only one way in, so security wouldn't be an issue. The invaders annihilated all my terraformer ships, and I eagerly sent my fleet at them for revenge.

They seem to have been identical to the OP's encounter. 12,800t and 32,000t ships with 10,000km/s speed. There were maybe 20 small ships and one large ship. As soon as I entered they were about 20M km away (very compact system) and I started unloading hundreds-strong salvoes of size-3 short-range missiles at the escorts. While they were travelling, two salvoes of eight size-11 missiles at 80,000km/s were launched from the capital ship. All my AM-M, Gauss and CIWS missed completely. They all impacted my nugget of a flagship, which absorbed a few missiles with shields and took some alarming craters in the armour belt.

My own missiles had a 33% chance to hit the escorts, and they barely scratched the shields. Once I saw that my own missiles were useless (and expended) and their escorts were about to close to Beam range, I got the hell out of that system. I'm just glad that the wormhole opened there and not Sol...
 

Offline Hawkeye

  • Silver Supporter
  • Vice Admiral
  • *****
  • Posts: 1059
  • Thanked: 5 times
  • Silver Supporter Silver Supporter : Support the forums with a Silver subscription
    2021 Supporter 2021 Supporter : Donate for 2021
    2022 Supporter 2022 Supporter : Donate for 2022
    2023 Supporter 2023 Supporter : Donate for 2023
Re: Not a single survivor made it back home
« Reply #33 on: June 19, 2010, 12:25:00 PM »
Quote from: "Shade"
A wormhole opened up in a system that I was looking forward to colonising. It had a near-Earth planet that just needed a little warmth, and a whole mess of minerals. On top of that, there was only one way in, so security wouldn't be an issue. The invaders annihilated all my terraformer ships, and I eagerly sent my fleet at them for revenge.

They seem to have been identical to the OP's encounter. 12,800t and 32,000t ships with 10,000km/s speed. There were maybe 20 small ships and one large ship. As soon as I entered they were about 20M km away (very compact system) and I started unloading hundreds-strong salvoes of size-3 short-range missiles at the escorts. While they were travelling, two salvoes of eight size-11 missiles at 80,000km/s were launched from the capital ship. All my AM-M, Gauss and CIWS missed completely. They all impacted my nugget of a flagship, which absorbed a few missiles with shields and took some alarming craters in the armour belt.

My own missiles had a 33% chance to hit the escorts, and they barely scratched the shields. Once I saw that my own missiles were useless (and expended) and their escorts were about to close to Beam range, I got the hell out of that system. I'm just glad that the wormhole opened there and not Sol...

Yep, they are a real pest.
Took my entire (remaining) fleets loadout of 1200 size 6/33% size ASM  to kill just two 12.800t ships from them (to-hit chance 40%, warhead strength 5) after they annihilated my entire FAC-Fleet of 96 FACs, each armed with 5 Size-3 missile launchers (I spread the fire, and faild to kill anything).
And to top it off, they appeared in a system, connected to Sol and followed me home. I am now franticly building more missiles and PDCs.

Note: Due to their dastardly effective ECM, the reload time for my 33% size launchers is longer than it takes them  to close from entering MY missile range to entering THEIR torpedo range. If my first salvo doesn´t kill them, I´m screwed!

Every time I hit the "advance time" butten I´m praying: "Leave me alone for a year, please please!"

Great game!!!
Ralph Hoenig, Germany
 

Offline welchbloke

  • Vice Admiral
  • **********
  • Posts: 1044
  • Thanked: 9 times
Re: Not a single survivor made it back home
« Reply #34 on: June 19, 2010, 02:02:54 PM »
Quote from: "Hawkeye"
Quote from: "Shade"
A wormhole opened up in a system that I was looking forward to colonising. It had a near-Earth planet that just needed a little warmth, and a whole mess of minerals. On top of that, there was only one way in, so security wouldn't be an issue. The invaders annihilated all my terraformer ships, and I eagerly sent my fleet at them for revenge.

They seem to have been identical to the OP's encounter. 12,800t and 32,000t ships with 10,000km/s speed. There were maybe 20 small ships and one large ship. As soon as I entered they were about 20M km away (very compact system) and I started unloading hundreds-strong salvoes of size-3 short-range missiles at the escorts. While they were travelling, two salvoes of eight size-11 missiles at 80,000km/s were launched from the capital ship. All my AM-M, Gauss and CIWS missed completely. They all impacted my nugget of a flagship, which absorbed a few missiles with shields and took some alarming craters in the armour belt.

My own missiles had a 33% chance to hit the escorts, and they barely scratched the shields. Once I saw that my own missiles were useless (and expended) and their escorts were about to close to Beam range, I got the hell out of that system. I'm just glad that the wormhole opened there and not Sol...

Yep, they are a real pest.
Took my entire (remaining) fleets loadout of 1200 size 6/33% size ASM  to kill just two 12.800t ships from them (to-hit chance 40%, warhead strength 5) after they annihilated my entire FAC-Fleet of 96 FACs, each armed with 5 Size-3 missile launchers (I spread the fire, and faild to kill anything).
And to top it off, they appeared in a system, connected to Sol and followed me home. I am now franticly building more missiles and PDCs.

Note: Due to their dastardly effective ECM, the reload time for my 33% size launchers is longer than it takes them  to close from entering MY missile range to entering THEIR torpedo range. If my first salvo doesn´t kill them, I´m screwed!

Every time I hit the "advance time" butten I´m praying: "Leave me alone for a year, please please!"

Great game!!!
In another thread, Charlie Beeler and I have been discusssing using meson armed FACs(lots of them) or ships.  If they can make it into range (relies upon lots of other ships running intereference) then you should be able to flash fry them  :twisted:
Welchbloke
 

Offline Charlie Beeler

  • Registered
  • Vice Admiral
  • **********
  • Posts: 1381
  • Thanked: 3 times
Re: Not a single survivor made it back home
« Reply #35 on: June 19, 2010, 07:53:39 PM »
Yep, they are the bane of my empires existance.  My Meson armed CT's didn't fair as well as hoped.  So far the single most effective tactic is a wave of 300+ fighters armed with 2-3 wh11 missiles.  Just barely had enough on hand for the last incursion.  

My new fighter production is meson armed version.  Hopefully I can get enough built before the next wave.  

Yes, the wormhole is in Sol system in my game.   :evil:
Amateurs study tactics, Professionals study logistics - paraphrase attributed to Gen Omar Bradley
 

Offline welchbloke

  • Vice Admiral
  • **********
  • Posts: 1044
  • Thanked: 9 times
Re: Not a single survivor made it back home
« Reply #36 on: June 20, 2010, 05:22:08 AM »
Quote from: "Charlie Beeler"
Yep, they are the bane of my empires existance.  My Meson armed CT's didn't fair as well as hoped.  So far the single most effective tactic is a wave of 300+ fighters armed with 2-3 wh11 missiles.  Just barely had enough on hand for the last incursion.  

My new fighter production is meson armed version.  Hopefully I can get enough built before the next wave.  

Yes, the wormhole is in Sol system in my game.   :evil:
Are you getting anywhere with reverse engineering their tech?
Welchbloke
 

Offline Charlie Beeler

  • Registered
  • Vice Admiral
  • **********
  • Posts: 1381
  • Thanked: 3 times
Re: Not a single survivor made it back home
« Reply #37 on: June 20, 2010, 07:47:02 AM »
Quote from: "welchbloke"
Quote from: "Charlie Beeler"
Yep, they are the bane of my empires existance.  My Meson armed CT's didn't fair as well as hoped.  So far the single most effective tactic is a wave of 300+ fighters armed with 2-3 wh11 missiles.  Just barely had enough on hand for the last incursion.  

My new fighter production is meson armed version.  Hopefully I can get enough built before the next wave.  

Yes, the wormhole is in Sol system in my game.   :evil:
Are you getting anywhere with reverse engineering their tech?

That has had some success.  Mainly in engine tech.  Went from Ion to ICF once all the recovered engines had been disassembled.  Some of the side tech need full reseach (missile drives, etc).  Active and passive sensors have also seen some boost.
Amateurs study tactics, Professionals study logistics - paraphrase attributed to Gen Omar Bradley
 

Offline welchbloke

  • Vice Admiral
  • **********
  • Posts: 1044
  • Thanked: 9 times
Re: Not a single survivor made it back home
« Reply #38 on: June 20, 2010, 08:41:37 AM »
Quote from: "Charlie Beeler"
Quote from: "welchbloke"
Quote from: "Charlie Beeler"
Yep, they are the bane of my empires existance.  My Meson armed CT's didn't fair as well as hoped.  So far the single most effective tactic is a wave of 300+ fighters armed with 2-3 wh11 missiles.  Just barely had enough on hand for the last incursion.  

My new fighter production is meson armed version.  Hopefully I can get enough built before the next wave.  

Yes, the wormhole is in Sol system in my game.   :evil:
Are you getting anywhere with reverse engineering their tech?

That has had some success.  Mainly in engine tech.  Went from Ion to ICF once all the recovered engines had been disassembled.  Some of the side tech need full reseach (missile drives, etc).  Active and passive sensors have also seen some boost.
Any plasma torp tech?
Welchbloke
 

Offline Shade

  • Leading Rate
  • *
  • S
  • Posts: 8
Re: Not a single survivor made it back home
« Reply #39 on: June 20, 2010, 06:03:58 PM »
I was wondering (and terrified) if the Invaders actually go between systems, but so far they haven't left the systems they wormholed into, which are both next to my nexus-system. Perhaps they haven't discovered the Jump-Point (yet)?
 

Offline Charlie Beeler

  • Registered
  • Vice Admiral
  • **********
  • Posts: 1381
  • Thanked: 3 times
Re: Not a single survivor made it back home
« Reply #40 on: June 20, 2010, 09:05:07 PM »
Quote from: "welchbloke"
 That has had some success.  Mainly in engine tech.  Went from Ion to ICF once all the recovered engines had been disassembled.  Some of the side tech need full reseach (missile drives, etc).  Active and passive sensors have also seen some boost.
Any plasma torp tech?[/quote]

Yes, some.  Nothing complete and I haven't pursued completing it at this time.  I've done a number on my economy deficit spending to get my fleet upgraded with ICF engines from the Ion tech I was using.  This includes missiles for the existing fleet and the new meson heavy fighter.  Hope to have then online before the next incursion.  If HF's are a success I'll consider pursuing the plasma torps.
Amateurs study tactics, Professionals study logistics - paraphrase attributed to Gen Omar Bradley
 

Offline Charlie Beeler

  • Registered
  • Vice Admiral
  • **********
  • Posts: 1381
  • Thanked: 3 times
Re: Not a single survivor made it back home
« Reply #41 on: June 20, 2010, 09:06:37 PM »
Quote from: "Shade"
I was wondering (and terrified) if the Invaders actually go between systems, but so far they haven't left the systems they wormholed into, which are both next to my nexus-system. Perhaps they haven't discovered the Jump-Point (yet)?

I have to assume the answer is yes.  The last incursion I fought off had 3 smaller ships that appearently were surveying for jump points.
Amateurs study tactics, Professionals study logistics - paraphrase attributed to Gen Omar Bradley
 

Offline Beersatron

  • Gold Supporter
  • Rear Admiral
  • *****
  • Posts: 996
  • Thanked: 7 times
  • Gold Supporter Gold Supporter : Support the forums with a Gold subscription
Re: Not a single survivor made it back home
« Reply #42 on: June 20, 2010, 09:32:06 PM »
I have two Stable Wormholes in my current game, they were created along with the system as I entered them. The thing is, there was also an error generated and I am worried that it has messed up Invader creation since I picketed one Wormhole for about 6 years and nothing came out of it :(

Any of you folks had any errors around Wormholes?
 

Offline Shade

  • Leading Rate
  • *
  • S
  • Posts: 8
Re: Not a single survivor made it back home
« Reply #43 on: June 21, 2010, 12:21:38 AM »
Do Wormholes ever close? Do they keep spawning Invaders, or is it one fleet of doom per system? Do they colonise and start building an empire the normal way?
 

Offline Hyfrydle

  • Sub-Lieutenant
  • ******
  • H
  • Posts: 129
Re: Not a single survivor made it back home
« Reply #44 on: June 21, 2010, 03:07:51 AM »
Yes wormholes do close it happened in my game last night. I now have a system full of an enemy alien species and they have now bombarded the only planet in the system with a reasonable colony cost :evil: