Ground Formation Size Test: 1 vs 100

[Garfunkel (OP)]

Conventional start. Both sides have nothing researched. Both sides have 10,000 PWL infantry. BLUE has 1 formation of 10,000 while RED has 100 formations of 100. Both sides are on Front Line Attack. No commanders, no headquarters. And this is on Earth with human troops.

Round 1:
BLUE has achieved two breakthroughs. Blue inflicts 288 casualties and suffers 174 casualties.
RED has not a single breakthrough. Red inflicts 174 casualties and suffers 200 casualties.

BLUE breakthrough attacks. Blue inflicts 407 casualties and suffers 137 casualties.
RED inflicts 137 casualties and suffers 300 casualties. Red loses 5 formations completely.

Round 2: using 3-hour increments, the second round took 9 hours to happen instead of 8
BLUE has achieved four breakthroughs. Blue inflicts 696 casualties and suffers 123 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 123 casualties and suffers 500 casualties.

Red loses 4 formations completely.
There are no stats for the breakthrough attack for some reason.

Round 3: (combining one 3 and one 8 increment for 11 hours total, not sure if that matter)
BLUE has achieved three breakthroughs. Blue inflicts 557 casualties and suffers 133 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 133 casualties and suffers 400 casualties.

Red loses 4 formations completely.
Again, there are no stats for the breakthrough attack.

Round 4: (used one 8 hour increment)
BLUE has achieved one breakthrough. Blue inflicts 298 casualties and suffers 136 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 136 casualties and suffers 200 casualties.

Red loses 2 formations completely.
Again, there are no stats for the breakthrough attack.

Round 5: (used one 8 hour increment)
BLUE has achieved one breakthrough. Blue inflicts 285 casualties and suffers 140 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 140 casualties and suffers 200 casualties.

Red loses 2 formations completely.
Again, there are no stats for the breakthrough attack.

Round 6:
BLUE has achieved one breakthrough. Blue inflicts 262 casualties and suffers 115 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 115 casualties and suffers 200 casualties.

Red loses 2 formations completely.
Again, there are no stats for the breakthrough attack.

There's no mistake with the numbers, I double and triple checked to make sure - definitely some repetition going on.

Round 7:
BLUE has achieved one breakthrough again. Blue inflicts 262 casualties and suffers 127 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 127 casualties and suffers 200 casualties.

Red loses 2 formations completely.
No stats for the breakthrough attack.

I think we're in a pattern now.

Round 8:
BLUE has achieved two breakthroughs. Blue inflicts 431 casualties and suffers 114 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 114 casualties and suffers 300 casualties.

Red loses 3 formations completely.
No stats for the breakthrough attack.

Round 9:
BLUE has achieved three breakthroughs. Blue inflicts 539 casualties and suffers 104 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 104 casualties and suffers 400 casualties.

Red loses 4 formations completely.
No stats for the breakthrough attack.

Round 10:
BLUE has achieved one breakthrough. Blue inflicts 255 casualties and suffers 99 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 99 casualties and suffers 200 casualties.

Red loses 2 formations completely.
No stats for the breakthrough attack.

At this point:
BLUE Big Huge One has 8,598 INF-PWL left with morale 101.

RED Small Tiny all have 6,900 INF-PWL left with morale 100 in 69 formations.

Round 11:
BLUE has achieved one breakthrough. Blue inflicts 230 casualties and suffers 100 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 100 casualties and suffers 200 casualties.

Red loses 2 formations completely.
No stats for the breakthrough attack.

Round 12:
BLUE has achieved two breakthroughs. Blue inflicts 390 casualties and suffers 94 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 94 casualties and suffers 300 casualties.

Red loses 3 formations completely.
No stats for the breakthrough attack.

Round 13:
BLUE has achieved three breakthroughs. Blue inflicts 516 casualties and suffers 90 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 90 casualties and suffers 400 casualties.

Red loses 4 formations completely.
No stats for the breakthrough attack.

Round 14:
BLUE has achieved one breakthrough. Blue inflicts 247 casualties and suffers 92 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 92 casualties and suffers 200 casualties.

Red loses 2 formations completely.
No stats for the breakthrough attack.

Round 15:
BLUE has achieved one breakthrough. Blue inflicts 264 casualties and suffers 100 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 100 casualties and suffers 200 casualties.

Red loses 2 formations completely.
No stats for the breakthrough attack.

Round 16:
BLUE has achieved one breakthrough. Blue inflicts 270 casualties and suffers 100 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 100 casualties and suffers 200 casualties.

Red loses 2 formations completely.
No stats for the breakthrough attack.

A pattern forming again.

Round 17:
BLUE has achieved one breakthrough. Blue inflicts 247 casualties and suffers 76 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 76 casualties and suffers 200 casualties.

Red loses 2 formations completely.
No stats for the breakthrough attack.

Round 18:
BLUE has achieved two breakthroughs. Blue inflicts 391 casualties and suffers 76 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 76 casualties and suffers 300 casualties.

Red loses 3 formations completely.
No stats for the breakthrough attack.

Round 19:
BLUE has achieved three breakthroughs. Blue inflicts 461 casualties and suffers 66 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 66 casualties and suffers 400 casualties.

Red loses 4 formations completely.
No stats for the breakthrough attack.

Round 20:
BLUE has achieved two breakthroughs. Blue inflicts 382 casualties and suffers 67 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 67 casualties and suffers 300 casualties.

Red loses 3 formations completely.
No stats for the breakthrough attack.

At this point:
BLUE Big Huge One has 7,737 INF-PWL left with morale 103.

RED Small Tiny all have 4,200 INF-PWL left with morale 100 in 42 formations.


It's getting really late here so I'll stop here. The trend seems to be clear and it's unlikely to change. The difference is the breakthroughs, especially the fact that a single formation can perform multiple breakthroughs in a single combat round. Because RED could not do them, fighting only one formation, while BLUE could do multiples, they immediately got the upper hand and dealt clearly more damage to RED than RED was capable of dealing back to BLUE.

So, everything else being equal, few big formations are better than many small formations.

Don't pull too far-reaching conclusions from here, more testing is needed. For example, 10 big formations versus 100 small formations, total sizes being the same. That would give the other side the chance for breakthroughs as well which might change the picture.

[Garfunkel (OP)]

I don't know why breakthrough attack statistics were shown in the first round but not in any of the later ones but clearly they were counted in the total casualties. I also don't know why there was always such a discrepancy between what Blue thought they had killed and what Red reported lost.

[Ri0Rdian]

Lovely piece of statistics.

If this happens to be the case I am happy for that. God knows I despise micro (fighters are bad enough that I skip them and at most go for FACs) and having another one with ground units would be horrible.

[Froggiest1982]

Conventional start. Both sides have nothing researched. Both sides have 10,000 PWL infantry. BLUE has 1 formation of 10,000 while RED has 100 formations of 100. Both sides are on Front Line Attack. No commanders, no headquarters. And this is on Earth with human troops.

Round 1:
BLUE has achieved two breakthroughs. Blue inflicts 288 casualties and suffers 174 casualties.
RED has not a single breakthrough. Red inflicts 174 casualties and suffers 200 casualties.

BLUE breakthrough attacks. Blue inflicts 407 casualties and suffers 137 casualties.
RED inflicts 137 casualties and suffers 300 casualties. Red loses 5 formations completely.

Round 2: using 3-hour increments, the second round took 9 hours to happen instead of 8
BLUE has achieved four breakthroughs. Blue inflicts 696 casualties and suffers 123 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 123 casualties and suffers 500 casualties.

Red loses 4 formations completely.
There are no stats for the breakthrough attack for some reason.

Round 3: (combining one 3 and one 8 increment for 11 hours total, not sure if that matter)
BLUE has achieved three breakthroughs. Blue inflicts 557 casualties and suffers 133 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 133 casualties and suffers 400 casualties.

Red loses 4 formations completely.
Again, there are no stats for the breakthrough attack.

Round 4: (used one 8 hour increment)
BLUE has achieved one breakthrough. Blue inflicts 298 casualties and suffers 136 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 136 casualties and suffers 200 casualties.

Red loses 2 formations completely.
Again, there are no stats for the breakthrough attack.

Round 5: (used one 8 hour increment)
BLUE has achieved one breakthrough. Blue inflicts 285 casualties and suffers 140 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 140 casualties and suffers 200 casualties.

Red loses 2 formations completely.
Again, there are no stats for the breakthrough attack.

Round 6:
BLUE has achieved one breakthrough. Blue inflicts 262 casualties and suffers 115 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 115 casualties and suffers 200 casualties.

Red loses 2 formations completely.
Again, there are no stats for the breakthrough attack.

There's no mistake with the numbers, I double and triple checked to make sure - definitely some repetition going on.

Round 7:
BLUE has achieved one breakthrough again. Blue inflicts 262 casualties and suffers 127 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 127 casualties and suffers 200 casualties.

Red loses 2 formations completely.
No stats for the breakthrough attack.

I think we're in a pattern now.

Round 8:
BLUE has achieved two breakthroughs. Blue inflicts 431 casualties and suffers 114 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 114 casualties and suffers 300 casualties.

Red loses 3 formations completely.
No stats for the breakthrough attack.

Round 9:
BLUE has achieved three breakthroughs. Blue inflicts 539 casualties and suffers 104 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 104 casualties and suffers 400 casualties.

Red loses 4 formations completely.
No stats for the breakthrough attack.

Round 10:
BLUE has achieved one breakthrough. Blue inflicts 255 casualties and suffers 99 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 99 casualties and suffers 200 casualties.

Red loses 2 formations completely.
No stats for the breakthrough attack.

At this point:
BLUE Big Huge One has 8,598 INF-PWL left with morale 101.

RED Small Tiny all have 6,900 INF-PWL left with morale 100 in 69 formations.

Round 11:
BLUE has achieved one breakthrough. Blue inflicts 230 casualties and suffers 100 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 100 casualties and suffers 200 casualties.

Red loses 2 formations completely.
No stats for the breakthrough attack.

Round 12:
BLUE has achieved two breakthroughs. Blue inflicts 390 casualties and suffers 94 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 94 casualties and suffers 300 casualties.

Red loses 3 formations completely.
No stats for the breakthrough attack.

Round 13:
BLUE has achieved three breakthroughs. Blue inflicts 516 casualties and suffers 90 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 90 casualties and suffers 400 casualties.

Red loses 4 formations completely.
No stats for the breakthrough attack.

Round 14:
BLUE has achieved one breakthrough. Blue inflicts 247 casualties and suffers 92 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 92 casualties and suffers 200 casualties.

Red loses 2 formations completely.
No stats for the breakthrough attack.

Round 15:
BLUE has achieved one breakthrough. Blue inflicts 264 casualties and suffers 100 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 100 casualties and suffers 200 casualties.

Red loses 2 formations completely.
No stats for the breakthrough attack.

Round 16:
BLUE has achieved one breakthrough. Blue inflicts 270 casualties and suffers 100 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 100 casualties and suffers 200 casualties.

Red loses 2 formations completely.
No stats for the breakthrough attack.

A pattern forming again.

Round 17:
BLUE has achieved one breakthrough. Blue inflicts 247 casualties and suffers 76 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 76 casualties and suffers 200 casualties.

Red loses 2 formations completely.
No stats for the breakthrough attack.

Round 18:
BLUE has achieved two breakthroughs. Blue inflicts 391 casualties and suffers 76 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 76 casualties and suffers 300 casualties.

Red loses 3 formations completely.
No stats for the breakthrough attack.

Round 19:
BLUE has achieved three breakthroughs. Blue inflicts 461 casualties and suffers 66 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 66 casualties and suffers 400 casualties.

Red loses 4 formations completely.
No stats for the breakthrough attack.

Round 20:
BLUE has achieved two breakthroughs. Blue inflicts 382 casualties and suffers 67 casualties.
RED has no breakthroughs. Red inflicts 67 casualties and suffers 300 casualties.

Red loses 3 formations completely.
No stats for the breakthrough attack.

At this point:
BLUE Big Huge One has 7,737 INF-PWL left with morale 103.

RED Small Tiny all have 4,200 INF-PWL left with morale 100 in 42 formations.


It's getting really late here so I'll stop here. The trend seems to be clear and it's unlikely to change. The difference is the breakthroughs, especially the fact that a single formation can perform multiple breakthroughs in a single combat round. Because RED could not do them, fighting only one formation, while BLUE could do multiples, they immediately got the upper hand and dealt clearly more damage to RED than RED was capable of dealing back to BLUE.

So, everything else being equal, few big formations are better than many small formations.

Don't pull too far-reaching conclusions from here, more testing is needed. For example, 10 big formations versus 100 small formations, total sizes being the same. That would give the other side the chance for breakthroughs as well which might change the picture.

Thanks For that.

I think that the advantage of the tiny army could be the ability to support each other and eventually use different formations while the huge army can only rely on one.

I am not sure if setting something up would change the outcome though as clearly the multiple breakthroughs would still apply.

[misanthropope]

one imagines the discrepancy between blue's kills inflicted and red's kills sustained is due to the target formation being smaller than damage done.

pwl is very large-unit favored because firepower is so low; even at such a comical size discrepancy not many kills were "wasted".  maybe try it with tanks; medium or heavy tanks with the corresponding AV weaponry has higher hit rate and _thirty-two_ times the lethality.  blue will waste oodles of firepower there, idk whether the breakthroughs (which ought to be pretty dramatic) will make up the difference.

[Vasious]

Interesting, thanks

Gives me some ideas for RP Insurgency and guerrillas and Spec ops

[pwhk]

in practice big formations also have an advantage of requiring less Ground Force Commanders overall, however you would need a bigger troop transport to move it (to a different planet).

[Father Tim]

I also don't know why there was always such a discrepancy between what Blue thought they had killed and what Red reported lost.

Yes, as Misanthropope says it's almost certainly that  Blue was inflicting "121" kills on a formation of only 100 units.

[Garfunkel (OP)]

Ah yes, that makes sense. Also, this means that it is possible to waste shots to some extent if fighting small enough formations.

[Father Tim]

A test of 10,000 vs 1 might swing the other way, depending on how far the breakthrough mechanic stacks.  If I'm remebering correctly a unit can only double-breakthough at most, so the '10,000' would overkill three of the '1' per combat round.

[Gyrfalcon]

I set up a battle between two conventional empires. One used 15 formations of 1,000 medium vehicles with support vehicles and HQ attached, and the other used 3 formations of 5,000 medium vehicles with equal numbers of support vehicles and HQ attached.

Code: [Select]

1,000 Tank Unit
Transport Size: 64.600 tons
Build Cost: 5.216 BP
1000x MBT (M/M/MAV/CAP)
40x Local Logistic Unit (I/LI/LOG-NCC)
2x HQ (MV/MVA/HQ-65k/MAV-NCC)

5,000 Tank Unit
Transport Size: 323.000 tons
Build Cost: 30.640 BP
5000x MBT (M/M/MAV/CAP)
200x Local Logistic Unit
10x HQ (MV/MVA/HQ-350k/MAV-NCC)

Both sides have the same starting forces:
15.000x MBT (M/M/MAV/CAP)
600x Local Logistic Unit
30x HQ (MV/MVA/HQ-xk/MAV-NCC)

Round 1
OPFOR BLUE
8 of 15 units acheive breakthrough
Casualties Believed Inflicted: 3893x MBT, 41x LLU, 6x HQ
Casualties Taken: 5418x MBT, 102x LLU, 11x HQ

OPFOR RED
5 of 3 units achieved breakthrough (1st 2x, 2nd 1x, 3rd 2x)
Casualties Believed Inflicted: 6883x MBT, 102x LLU, 23x HQ
Casualties Taken: 3893x MBT, 41x LLU, 6x HQ

Round Summary:
OPFOR BLUE has 9 formations intact, 1 formations shattered (1 HQ unit still present, formation at 13% strength), and 5 formations destroyed. Survivors merged into shattered formation.
OPFOR RED has 3 damaged formations at 76%, 80% and 66% strength.

OPFOR BLUE took 1,525x MBT, 61x LLU and 5x HQ more casualties in combat.

Round 2
OPFOR BLUE
8 of 10 units achieve breakthrough
Casualties Believed Inflicted: 3928x MBT, 40x LLU, 4x HQ
Casualties Taken: 3631x MBT, 55x LLU, 6x HQ

OPFOR RED
4 of 3 units achieve breakthrough (1st 2x, 2nd 1x, 3rd 1x)
Casualties Believed Inflicted: 3916x MBT, 55x LLU, 7x HQ
Casualties Taken: 2928x MBT, 40x LLU, 4x HQ

Round Summary:
OPFOR BLUE has 4 formations intact, 1 formation at 52%, 1 formation at 58%, 1 formation at 38%, and 3 formations destroyed. Survivors merged into the remaining units.
OPFOR RED has 3 damaged formations at 42%, 62% and 59% strength.

OPFOR BLUE took 703x MBT, 15x LLU and 2x HQ more casualties in combat.

Round 3
OPFOR BLUE
5* of 7 units achieved breakthrough (2 units achieved breakthrough twice) - total breakthroughs: 7
Casualties Believed Inflicted: 1863x MBT, 14x LLU, 5x HQ
Casualties Taken: 2867x MBT, 32x LLU, 5x HQ

OPFOR RED
5 of 3 units achieve breakthrough (1st 2x, 2nd 2x, 3rd 1x)
Casualties Believed Inflicted: 3867x MBT, 32x LLU, 5x HQ
Casualties Taken: 1863x MBT, 14x LLU, 5x HQ

Round Summary:
OPFOR BLUE has no intact formations, 3 formations above 50%, 2 formations between 34-47%, one formation at 14x, and 1 destroyed formation. Survivors merged into the remaining units.
-- After merging, OPFOR BLUE has 4 formations at 84%, 40%, 100% and 84% strength remaining.
OPFOR RED has 3 damaged formations at 30%, 55%, and 41% strength.

OPFOR BLUE took 1004x MBT and 18x LLU more casualties in combat.

Round 4
OPFOR BLUE
No breakthroughs were achieved.
Casualties Believed Inflicted: 352x MBT, 4x LLU, 1x HQ
Casualties Taken: 1362x MBT, 51x LLU, 2x HQ

OPFOR RED
2 of 3 units achieved breakthroughs
Casualties Believed Inflicted: 1362x MBT, 51x LLU, 3x HQ
Casualties Taken: 352x MBT, 4x LLU, 1x HQ

Round Summary:
OPFOR BLUE has 3 intact formations at 26%, 40% and 84% strength and 1 destroyed formation.
-- After merging, OPFOR BLUE has 3 formations at 48%, 40% and 84% strength.
OPFOR RED has 3 formations at 27%, 55% and 36%

OPFOR BLUE took 1010x MBT, 47x LLU and 1x HQ more casualties in combat.

Round 5
OPFOR BLUE
No breakthroughs were achieved
Casualties Believed Inflicted: 174x MBT
Casualties Taken: 711x MBT, 36x LLU, 5x HQ

OPFOR RED
2 of 3 units achieved breakthroughs
Casualties Believed Inflicted: 979x MBT, 36x LLU, 8x HQ
Casualties Taken: 174x MBT

Round Summary:
OPFOR BLUE has 1 intact formation at 71% strength and 2 destroyed formations. After merger, the 9th is the only surviving formation at 101% strength.
OPFOR RED has 3 intact formations at 26%, 55% and 35% strength.

OPFOR BLUE took 805x MBT, 36x LLU and 8x HQ more casualties in combat.

Round 6 (Final Round)
OPFOR BLUE
No breakthroughs were achieved
Casualties Believed Inflicted: 110x MBT, 1x LLU
Casualties Taken: 707x MBT, 13x LLU, 1x HQ

OPFOR RED
3 of 3 units achieved breakthroughs
Casualties Believed Inflicted: 707x MBT, 13x LLU, 1x HQ
Casualties Taken: 110x MBT, 1x LLU

Round Summary:
OPFOR BLUE's 9th has shattered, with no remaining HQ units.
OPFOR RED has 3 intact formations at 26%, 55% and 32% strength.

OPFOR BLUE took 597x MBT, 12x LLU and 1x HQ more casualties in combat.

My analysis is that all things being equal, its far better to bring fewer, larger formations to combat then more small formations. Throughout the rounds, OPFOR BLUE consistently took far worse casualties, despite both sides having exactly equal numbers for types and quality of units.

Of course for play against player factions, you can simulate battles down to the company level, but if you are mostly looking to fight the AI and it brings larger formations to the table, mechanically speaking you have to do the same or suffer disproportionate casualties, even in standup fights.

[Jorgen_CAB]

I have done some testing and it works in the way that the smaller formation side need to do more than double the damage of their small formations, then it is beneficial.

In this case it would probably swing the other way if you have 133 size 75 units as the large formation could only ever do 150 damage on you while the smaller force would still do about 175 damage in return. The larger side will then loose more morale than it gain (i think) so it would go downhill from there.

In general larger units is better by far unless the opponent use really tiny formations.

I might not thing it is a huge problem but I do think it is a problem that you can META game the system like that... larger formations also is much easier to micromanage on top of everything else and retain good commanding bonuses better.

[misanthropope]

gyrfalcon

the larger formations are better, to be sure, but don't be misled by the quantity of surviving units on the winning side.  that was a fairly close battle. the baseline for eyeballing such things is the pythagorean theorem (and this isn't nearly as SWAGgy as I'm making it sound; the derivation borders on being interesting if you're a math nerd).  500 vs 400 if individual rounds of combat aren't highly lethal you expect the bigger side to walk away with 300 units. 

on the "eyeball metric" basis, the 5*formation size advantage is only about 8%.  i don't have A# up and running yet, but i reckon if you ran 15 v 14 of your size 1000 formations you'd see the larger side keep about the same number of surviving tanks as in the sim you ran.

i guess the tl;dr is this:  even major size advantages only equate to minor material advantage.  if steve tweaks the commander bonus stacking just a little bit (to increase the value of having a deeper hierarchy) a "golden mean" will appear.

[Gyrfalcon]

15 vs 14 using 1k formations, The winners Had 5,137 surviving MBT, about 400 less then in the previous battle.

[skoormit]

15 vs 14 using 1k formations, The winners Had 5,137 surviving MBT, about 400 less then in the previous battle.

Which is very much in line with the pythagorean expectation of 5,385.