Either there's a bug in the surrender logic, or maybe an edge case and I just got super lucky, but I just had 450ktons of enemy combatants surrender en mass, with only one of their ships damaged, to <120ktons of my own fleet. I was slightly ahead in tech but not egregiously so, and many of my ships were older vintage scraped together for a desperate ambush to protect a mid-sized colony. I normally wouldn't provide what is going to be nearly an AAR, but I think it may be relevant.
My fleet was comprised of
1x CV Liverpool (64kton armed carrier)
1x CV Let Freedom Ring (20kton unarmed carrier)
24x Lightning (various vintages of fast fighters armed with a single HPM)
15x F-45 Starfires (500t railgun fighter)
08x F-46 Starfires (500t railgun fighter)
10x F-45 Starfires (490t railgun fighter)
11x F-53 Starfires (380t railgun fighter)
The enemy's fleet was comprised of
2x Kitee (52kt Battlecruiser)
5x Hyvinkaa (52kt Battlecruiser)
3x Pieksamaki (35kt Escort Cruiser)
When the enemy fleet finally performed their intrasystem jump, they landed roughly 500km away from my fleet. Both fleets closed the distance, with my fleet staying together at the speed of the CV Liverpool. Once the enemy fleet opened fire with their large railguns at around 240km, they delt armor damage to 6 fighters and intenral damage to a 7th, but no fighters were destroyed outright. I broke the fighters apart into fleets based on their speed, and ordered them all to close at their own best speed. CV Liverpool fired next as it's particle beams came into range, and landed a single strength 6 high. In the next 5 second tick, right as the first fighters got into range, but before they could fire, the entire enemy fleet surrendered! One of the Kitee had sustained about 30 to 40% armor damage from some prior engagement, but the rest of their ships were untouched. They were all at zero fuel, however.
Had they not surrendered I'm pretty sure the 24 HPM fighters would've taken out the enemy's sensors and fire controls and my fleet would've won, but each enemy ship had 3 BFC and enough railguns and lasers for each BFC (471 across the fleet, so ~20 guns per BFC) that each BFC would've been almost guaranteed to kill a fighter at close range. That would've been 24 fighters destroyed per round of fire, so it'd be a race to disable enemy ships via microwave before all my microwave fighters were shot down. I'm actually kind of bummed I didn't get to find out how it sorted out.
The only thing I can think of is that the high speed of the fighters was weighted heavily, and maybe the enemy fleet being out of fuel also was part of the calculation. I saved off the before and after DB in case anyone wants to poke into it.
Update: Boy did I get lucky they surrendered (for what ever reason). I re-ran from my prior save and they wrecked me, as is appropriate for a 4:1 tonnage advantage. Those railguns were not friendly to my fighters, that's for sure.
CV Liverpool (Liverpool class Carrier) 64,357 tons 1,025 Crew 8,006.1 BP TCS 1,287 TH 3,750 EM 10,200
2913 km/s Armour 8-143 Shields 340-510 HTK 284 Sensors 8/1/0/0 DCR 34-5 PPV 70.4
Maint Life 1.59 Years MSP 11,088 AFR 2367% IFR 32.9% 1YR 5,098 5YR 76,467 Max Repair 625 MSP
Hangar Deck Capacity 25,000 tons Troop Capacity 250 tons Magazine 16 / 0 Cryogenic Berths 1,000
Captain Control Rating 1 BRG
Intended Deployment Time: 12 months Flight Crew Berths 500 Morale Check Required
Ion Drive EP1250.00 (3) Power 3750 Fuel Use 18.97% Signature 1250 Explosion 10%
Fuel Capacity 4,000,000 Litres Range 59 billion km (234 days at full power)
Epsilon S85 / R510 Shields (4) Recharge Time 510 seconds (0.7 per second)
Particle Beam-6 (8 ) Range 200,000km TS: 5,000 km/s Power 15-3.75 ROF 20
12cm Railgun 60km-10s (4x4) Range 60,000km TS: 5,000 km/s Power 6-3 RM 30,000 km ROF 10
BFC R256-TS4000 (1) Max Range: 256,000 km TS: 4,000 km/s ECCM-1 96 92 88 84 80 77 73 69 65 61
BFC R128-TS4000 (1) Max Range: 128,000 km TS: 4,000 km/s ECCM-1 92 84 77 69 61 53 45 38 30 22
Magnetic Mirror Fusion Reactor R42 (1) Total Power Output 42.3 Exp 5%
M4 Silo (4) Missile Size: 4 Hangar Reload 100 minutes MF Reload 16 hours
Tele-Drone MFC (1) Range 14.1m km Resolution 100
SCT Tele-drone Mk1 (4) Speed: 7,200 km/s End: 3.8d Range: 2,373.5m km WH: 0 Size: 4 TH: 24/14/7
MD-393k-50t (1) GPS 12 Range 4.4m km MCR 393.3k km Resolution 1
TH1.0-8.0 (1) Sensitivity 8 Detect Sig Strength 1000: 22.4m km
EM0.2-1.6 (1) Sensitivity 1.6 Detect Sig Strength 1000: 10m km
Electronic Warfare Jammers: Fire Control 2 Missile 2
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CV Let Freedom Ring (Liberty Mk1a class Carrier) 20,000 tons 316 Crew 2,812.4 BP TCS 400 TH 2,000 EM 4,740
5000 km/s Armour 5-65 Shields 158-632 HTK 87 Sensors 11/1/0/0 DCR 28-14 PPV 0
Maint Life 2.12 Years MSP 4,230 AFR 390% IFR 5.4% 1YR 1,262 5YR 18,931 Max Repair 1,000 MSP
Hangar Deck Capacity 8,000 tons Troop Capacity 250 tons
Commander Control Rating 1 BRG
Intended Deployment Time: 12 months Flight Crew Berths 160 Morale Check Required
Magneto-plasma Drive EP2000.00 (1) Power 2000 Fuel Use 27.62% Signature 2000 Explosion 12%
Fuel Capacity 1,750,000 Litres Range 57 billion km (131 days at full power)
Theta S158 / R632 Shields (1) Recharge Time 632 seconds (0.3 per second)
TH1.0-11.0 (1) Sensitivity 11 Detect Sig Strength 1000: 26.2m km
EM0.1-1.1 (1) Sensitivity 1.1 Detect Sig Strength 1000: 8.3m km
Electronic Warfare Jammers: Sensor 1
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FTR-148 B-2b Lighting 008 (B-2b Lighting class Fighter) 496 tons 13 Crew 121 BP TCS 10 TH 161 EM 0
16280 km/s Armour 1-5 Shields 0-0 HTK 3 Sensors 0/0/0/0 DCR 0-0 PPV 3
Maint Life 4.47 Years MSP 65 AFR 20% IFR 0.3% 1YR 5 5YR 79 Max Repair 80.6 MSP
Lieutenant Commander Control Rating 1
Intended Deployment Time: 15 days Morale Check Required
Ion Drive EP161.25 (1) Power 161.2 Fuel Use 1188.61% Signature 161.25 Explosion 30%
Fuel Capacity 23,000 Litres Range 0.7 billion km (12 hours at full power)
HPM-15km-5s (1) Range 15,000km TS: 16,280 km/s Power 3-3 ROF 5
BFC R19-TS14000 (SW) (1) Max Range: 19,200 km TS: 14,000 km/s ECCM-1 48 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Magnetic Mirror Fusion Reactor R3 (1) Total Power Output 3.1 Exp 5%
MD-136k-5t (1) GPS 2 Range 1.5m km MCR 136.2k km Resolution 1
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FTR-01 F-45 Starfire 001 (F-45 Starfire class Fighter) 500 tons 11 Crew 72.7 BP TCS 10 TH 72 EM 0
7181 km/s Armour 1-5 Shields 0-0 HTK 3 Sensors 0/0/0/0 DCR 0-0 PPV 3
Maint Life 4.15 Years MSP 29 AFR 20% IFR 0.3% 1YR 3 5YR 40 Max Repair 35.9 MSP
Lieutenant Commander Control Rating 1
Intended Deployment Time: 15 days Morale Check Required
Nuclear Gas-Core Engine EP71.75 (1) Power 71.8 Fuel Use 442.90% Signature 71.75 Explosion 17%
Fuel Capacity 21,000 Litres Range 1.71 billion km (66 hours at full power)
10cm Railgun V20/C3 (1x4) Range 19,200km TS: 7,181 km/s Power 3-3 RM 20,000 km ROF 5
BFC R19-TS9000 (SW) (1) Max Range: 19,200 km TS: 9,000 km/s ECCM-0 48 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Gaseous Fission Reactor R3 (1) Total Power Output 3 Exp 5%
MD-136k-5t (1) GPS 2 Range 1.5m km MCR 136.2k km Resolution 1
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FTR-302 F-53 Starfire 080 (F-53 Starfire class Fighter) 390 tons 11 Crew 107.6 BP TCS 8 TH 106 EM 0
13563 km/s Armour 1-4 Shields 0-0 HTK 2 Sensors 0/0/0/0 DCR 0-0 PPV 3
Maint Life 3.66 Years MSP 17 AFR 12% IFR 0.2% 1YR 2 5YR 30 Max Repair 52.8 MSP
Lieutenant Commander Control Rating 1
Intended Deployment Time: 15 days Morale Check Required
Magneto-plasma Drive EP105.60 (1) Power 105.6 Fuel Use 1661.74% Signature 105.6 Explosion 30%
Fuel Capacity 24,000 Litres Range 0.67 billion km (13 hours at full power)
10cm Railgun V20/C3 (1x4) Range 20,000km TS: 13,563 km/s Power 3-3 RM 20,000 km ROF 5
BFC R48-TS16k (SW) (1) Max Range: 48,000 km TS: 16,000 km/s ECCM-2 79 58 38 17 0 0 0 0 0 0
Stellarator Fusion Reactor R3-PB30 (1) Total Power Output 3 Exp 15%
MD-136k-5t (1) GPS 2 Range 1.5m km MCR 136.2k km Resolution 1
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BCJ-03 Kitee 003 (Kitee class Jump Battlecruiser) 52,469 tons 1,617 Crew 9,073.3 BP TCS 1,049 TH 6,120 EM 0
5832 km/s JR 4-100 Armour 8-124 Shields 0-0 HTK 314 Sensors 18/12/0/0 DCR 18-3 PPV 234
Maint Life 0.71 Years MSP 1,945 AFR 1224% IFR 17.0% 1YR 2,725 5YR 40,875 Max Repair 1,270.5 MSP
Magazine 0 / 132
Captain Control Rating 3 BRG AUX ENG
Intended Deployment Time: 12 months Morale Check Required
J52500(4-100) Military Jump Drive Max Ship Size 52500 tons Distance 100k km Squadron Size 4
Ion Drive EP510.00 (12) Power 6120 Fuel Use 74.72% Signature 510 Explosion 13%
Fuel Capacity 3,950,000 Litres Range 18.1 billion km (35 days at full power)
20cm C3.5 Ultraviolet Laser (39) Range 256,000km TS: 5,832 km/s Power 10-3.5 RM 40,000 km ROF 15
Beam Fire Control R256-TS6000 (3) Max Range: 256,000 km TS: 6,000 km/s ECCM-1 96 92 88 84 80 77 73 69 65 61
Magnetic Mirror Fusion Reactor R4 (39) Total Power Output 139.6 Exp 5%
Size 44 Decoy Launcher (3) Decoy Size: 44 Hangar Reload 331 minutes MF Reload 55 hours
Dart Ship Decoy (3) Signature: 8800 tons ECM-1 Size: 44
Active Search Sensor AS68-R110 (1) GPS 11880 Range 68.8m km Resolution 110
Thermal Sensor TH3-18 (1) Sensitivity 18 Detect Sig Strength 1000: 33.5m km
EM Sensor EM2-12 (1) Sensitivity 12 Detect Sig Strength 1000: 27.4m km
Electronic Warfare Jammers: Sensor 1 Fire Control 1 Missile 1
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BC-06 Hyvinkaa 006 (Hyvinkaa class Battlecruiser) 52,452 tons 1,600 Crew 8,425.2 BP TCS 1,049 TH 6,120 EM 0
5834 km/s Armour 9-124 Shields 0-0 HTK 335 Sensors 12/12/0/0 DCR 18-3 PPV 272
Maint Life 1.12 Years MSP 1,807 AFR 1223% IFR 17.0% 1YR 1,458 5YR 21,873 Max Repair 255 MSP
Magazine 0 / 352
Captain Control Rating 4 BRG AUX ENG CIC
Intended Deployment Time: 12 months Morale Check Required
Ion Drive EP510.00 (12) Power 6120 Fuel Use 74.72% Signature 510 Explosion 13%
Fuel Capacity 3,750,000 Litres Range 17.2 billion km (34 days at full power)
25.00cm C4 Ultraviolet Laser (1) Range 256,000km TS: 5,834 km/s Power 16-4 RM 40,000 km ROF 20
20cm C3.5 Ultraviolet Laser (44) Range 256,000km TS: 5,834 km/s Power 10-3.5 RM 40,000 km ROF 15
Beam Fire Control R256-TS6000 (3) Max Range: 256,000 km TS: 6,000 km/s ECCM-1 96 92 88 84 80 77 73 69 65 61
Magnetic Mirror Fusion Reactor R4 (1) Total Power Output 4.3 Exp 5%
Magnetic Mirror Fusion Reactor R4 (44) Total Power Output 157.5 Exp 5%
Size 44 Decoy Launcher (8 ) Decoy Size: 44 Hangar Reload 331 minutes MF Reload 55 hours
Dart Ship Decoy (8 ) Signature: 8800 tons ECM-1 Size: 44
Active Search Sensor AS68-R110 (1) GPS 11880 Range 68.8m km Resolution 110
Thermal Sensor TH2-12 (1) Sensitivity 12 Detect Sig Strength 1000: 27.4m km
EM Sensor EM2-12 (1) Sensitivity 12 Detect Sig Strength 1000: 27.4m km
Electronic Warfare Jammers: Sensor 1 Fire Control 1 Missile 1
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CLE-04 Pieksamaki 006 (Pieksamaki class Escort Cruiser) 34,990 tons 1,057 Crew 4,676.3 BP TCS 700 TH 4,080 EM 0
5830 km/s Armour 8-95 Shields 0-0 HTK 187 Sensors 6/0/0/0 DCR 12-3 PPV 168
Maint Life 1.08 Years MSP 1,002 AFR 816% IFR 11.3% 1YR 864 5YR 12,958 Max Repair 255 MSP
Magazine 0 / 176
Commander Control Rating 2 BRG AUX
Intended Deployment Time: 12 months Morale Check Required
Ion Drive EP510.00 (8 ) Power 4080 Fuel Use 74.72% Signature 510 Explosion 13%
Fuel Capacity 2,650,000 Litres Range 18.2 billion km (36 days at full power)
10cm Railgun V10/C3 (56x4) Range 10,000km TS: 5,830 km/s Power 3-3 RM 10,000 km ROF 5
Beam Fire Control R128-TS6000 (3) Max Range: 128,000 km TS: 6,000 km/s ECCM-1 92 84 77 69 61 53 45 38 30 22
Magnetic Mirror Fusion Reactor R4 (56) Total Power Output 200.5 Exp 5%
Size 44 Decoy Launcher (4) Decoy Size: 44 Hangar Reload 331 minutes MF Reload 55 hours
Dart Ship Decoy (4) Signature: 8800 tons ECM-1 Size: 44
Active Search Sensor AS9-R1 (1) GPS 51 Range 9.8m km MCR 883k km Resolution 1
Thermal Sensor TH1-6 (1) Sensitivity 6 Detect Sig Strength 1000: 19.4m km
Electronic Warfare Jammers: Sensor 1 Fire Control 1 Missile 1
Missile to hit chances are vs targets moving at 3000 km/s, 5000 km/s and 10,000 km/s