Author Topic: Tentative Suggestions for Missile Rebalancing by Tweaking Launcher Size Rules  (Read 14822 times)

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Offline Iceranger

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I don't think this will happen. The current mechanics are not "one weapon per missile salvo" or some similar even spread; rather, a fleet in final fire mode will repeatedly target one missile salvo at a time until it is gone, then move on to the next salvo, and so on - one salvo at a time.

They are statistically the same. Say there are 2000 shots vs 200 missiles, each shot has a 0.1 chance to hit. It doesn't matter if the shots (trials) are repeated against 1 missile until it is gone, distributed evenly, or however you want to order them. Once there are 200 successful trials (connecting shots) rolled, all 200 missiles are destroyed. If all shots are rolled and there are less than 200 successes, some missiles get through.

FWIW, I in practice already use basically this proposed change for my ASMs, trying to balance launchers and MFCs to get 4-5 missiles per salvo, specifically because I try to take advantage of the mechanics to force enemy PD weapons to waste shots against dead salvos (not my proudest moment, I admit), even with box launcher-based ships. Nothing about this somehow precludes the all-or-nothing nature of PD, it just shifts the balancing points around.

Yes under the current mechanism wasted shots per turret exist, but this (like everything else) can be alleviated by designing turrets having an expected shot of 1, i.e., increasing the granularity of the shots to reduce wastes.

Also FWIW, I don't think trying to eliminate the all-or-nothing nature is a productive direction for missile balance.
I think many of the discussions around missile balance are related to all-or-nothing, without realizing it. Because of the all-or-nothing nature, everyone wants to stay on the 'all' side, thus the box launcher spam, thus the AMM spam, thus the proposal of reducing launcher size for larger missiles so it is easier to launch more larger missiles. The stand-off warhead basically tries to reduce the hit chance against larger missiles, making it easier for them to get on the 'all' side. ECM/ECCM is more feasible on larger missiles, again trying to get them on the 'all' side.

By breaking all-or-nothing, the attacker doesn't necessarily need overwhelming firepower to at least get something through. Of course, more is better, but it is more interesting that during combat a lesser or equal force can get its tactical advantage by doing something.

Not only is it (IMO) pretty much baked into the mechanics of Aurora (to change this requires reframing the entire PD mechanics into a shot-per-missile framework instead of the current missiles-per-shot system)
As I mentioned above, these two are statistically identical. It doesn't matter if you roll dice until one missile dies then proceed to the next missile, or roll once per missile, then in the end if there are additional shots go back from the start. They are statistically the same.

The only targeting change needed in my proposal is each salvo can only be engaged once by one BFC. This is not intended to nerf BFCs, but again to avoid going into the region where the law of large numbers works against us.

In short, by limiting the number of missiles in a salvo, limiting one salvo per defending BFC/MFC and one defending BFC/MFC per salvo, we create a scenario where the missile interceptions are in small batches, where the law of large numbers no longer applies, so the attacker doesn't always need an overwhelming number of missiles to hope to get some through.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2023, 11:20:10 AM by Iceranger »
 

Offline Steve Walmsley

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If someone wants a mega-wave of missiles, they'll want to have as few FCs as possible to leave space for missiles, but it could also be viable to field half as many missiles with lots of FC in order to overwhelm enemy tracking.

Yes, but if you are only firing half as many missiles due to have lots of FC, the defender only needs half as many weapons, so they can have lot of FC too. The overall situation isn't changing.

I will be posting some missile updates over the next few days that should have a much greater impact on missile combat in general
 
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Offline Iceranger

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If someone wants a mega-wave of missiles, they'll want to have as few FCs as possible to leave space for missiles, but it could also be viable to field half as many missiles with lots of FC in order to overwhelm enemy tracking.

Yes, but if you are only firing half as many missiles due to have lots of FC, the defender only needs half as many weapons, so they can have lot of FC too. The overall situation isn't changing.

I will be posting some missile updates over the next few days that should have a much greater impact on missile combat in general

As I mentioned multiple times, there is nothing preventing either side from bringing overwhelming forces. As I have demonstrated in my argument, the number of missiles has to be closer to the number of the effective shots for missile warfare to be not one-sided. However, these numbers tend to be very large, hundreds or thousands in a battle. However, the number of fire controls on either side is usually an order of magnitude less, thus it is much more likely one is close to the other, creating an interesting, not one-sided scenario.

I really hope there are other good ideas to resolve this. But as I said in my above post, many of the ideas are fundamentally just changing the interception chance, which does not matter when the law of large numbers apply.
 

Offline SpaceMarine

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just posting some of my desires for missile combat, changes to both E-WAR and missiles.

Missiles:

I want detonation range, i want laser warheads, I want configurable detonation range for missiles that can be set during combat and I want proper decoys that use E-WAR.

E-WAR:

in terms of e-war i want some kind of added thing, in honorverse the controllers of the PD turrets have to learn the patterns, and configure their systems to match, and they have to deal with the decoys disguising themselves and understanding whats a decoy and not i want a similar experience, if decoys become much much more viable then it massively reduces potential cost needed to overcome defenses
which makes costs go down overall for missiles against beam PD and means you dont have to rely so much on Alpha salvo.

basically as you see more of the missiles come in your computers begin to fight against their electronic warfare and have a percent change as time goes on to understand whats a decoy or what inst
if it doesnt understand it shoots the decoys if it does make that check it shoots the real missileshigher EW tech means you have a higher chance of this, the more time in sensor range and being seen the more this chance increases over time so as you do fighting your stuff gets better and better this may then require your opponent to swithc tactics to use a longer detonation range because decoys are less effective meaning they cant get in as close.
 
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Offline Steve Walmsley

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just posting some of my desires for missile combat, changes to both E-WAR and missiles.

Missiles:

I want detonation range, i want laser warheads, I want configurable detonation range for missiles that can be set during combat and I want proper decoys that use E-WAR.

E-WAR:

in terms of e-war i want some kind of added thing, in honorverse the controllers of the PD turrets have to learn the patterns, and configure their systems to match, and they have to deal with the decoys disguising themselves and understanding whats a decoy and not i want a similar experience, if decoys become much much more viable then it massively reduces potential cost needed to overcome defenses
which makes costs go down overall for missiles against beam PD and means you dont have to rely so much on Alpha salvo.

basically as you see more of the missiles come in your computers begin to fight against their electronic warfare and have a percent change as time goes on to understand whats a decoy or what inst
if it doesnt understand it shoots the decoys if it does make that check it shoots the real missileshigher EW tech means you have a higher chance of this, the more time in sensor range and being seen the more this chance increases over time so as you do fighting your stuff gets better and better this may then require your opponent to swithc tactics to use a longer detonation range because decoys are less effective meaning they cant get in as close.

There will be stand-off laser warheads with ranges configurable in design, but not in combat. I have some other warheads in mind too. I will probably add some form of decoys, but I am considering potential mechanics at the moment. The idea of tactical intelligence on decoys is an interesting one, but I suspect people would just deploy updated same-tech decoys on a regular basis to avoid that, so I need to be careful about creating tedium rather than decisions. Also, if we did that with decoys, you could argue the same for missiles and that would also mean regular missile updates. Probably easier to leave that alone (the TacIntel part).
 

Offline SpaceMarine

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Imho the thing we want to tackle as stated is the zero sum game and I think the best way to do that is EWAR Decoys and detonation range.

essentially right now if you have enough PD 100% of missiles are shot down and you do 0 damage as the missile player leaving you with a "i have to retreat or go into beam combat"

This i think can be corrected by the evolving war of E-WAR and decoys,

If the PD has to reach maximum effectiveness over time during combat against missiles then it means the missile player can do atleast some damage, this effectiveness meaning instead of 100% its say 90% and growing to 100% during combat at a certain range, this eventually causes all missiles to be stopped at the most damaging range and for the missile player to use longer range detonation warheads to get through which cause far less damage but do some while expending missiles, this also puts a greater point for beam ships to carry more armour thus reducing number of PD weapons.

This can be seen as tacint and i think it would make the interaction far more enjoyable.

next is decoys, decoys use EWAR and should be unlocked via electronic warfare, the amount of decoys used improves the chance of your missiles not being hit and the higher EW you have the better chances the enemy PD is confused, the opposite is true for the defender who using eccm to distinguish and the computers target proper ones, instead of the base +10% linear chance to hit this changes to a more enjoyable experience as you get better at distinguishing these decoys the missile combat gets easier to defend against assuming you didnt already take too much damage.

This incentivises the missile fleet to try to use its dumb munitions as much as it can initially to break through as well as its decoys but overtime it has to move to laser warheads to get any damage through, this may cause unforseen consequences overall but i think systems like this will create flexibility and decision making for the player on what types of warheads to employ, and for the defending player the investment into ECCM and better crew training to learn quicker the enemies patterns and missiles.

basically i want honoverse and this is ho wi see it working ingame.
 

Offline SpaceMarine

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For v2.20, I've removed missile agility and implemented fractional warheads.

http://aurora2.pentarch.org/index.php?topic=13090.msg164041#msg164041

I understand that the point of fractional warheads is trying to give AMMs a chance to be useful when agility is removed. However, after modifying my missile optimizer and playing with the numbers a bit, I'm totally against the change of removing agility, for two reasons:

1, while the fractional warhead sizes may overcome the loss of agility for very early techs, it does not last long. For example, let's say we use 2 tiers of tech above the starting tech to design an AMM:
Warhead strength 4/MSP
Engine power 0.32/MSP
Fuel efficiency 0.8
Engine max power boost 1.5
Using a warhead of 0.05 and as short range as possible trying to get the best hit chance, the following missile is the 'optimal', with a 100% chance to hit 1880km/s.
Code: [Select]
Missile Size: 1.0000 MSP (2.5000 Tons)    Warhead: 0.0500    Radiation Damage: 0    Manoeuver Rating: 10
Speed: 18,800 km/s    Fuel: 18    Flight Time: 80 seconds    Range: 1.52 Mkm
Cost Per Missile: 0.48250    Development Cost: 48
Chance to Hit: 1k km/s 188.0%   3k km/s 62.7%   5k km/s 37.6%   10k km/s 18.8%   20k km/s 9.4%   50k km/s 3.8%   100k km/s 1.9%

In the current version, we can have the following missile, with agility 48/MSP, also 2 tiers above the starting tech. It hits 2100km/s with a 100% chance.
Code: [Select]
Missile Size: 1.0000 MSP (2.5000 Tons)    Warhead: 1    Radiation Damage: 1    Manoeuver Rating: 25
Speed: 8,400 km/s    Fuel: 19    Flight Time: 132 seconds    Range: 1.12 Mkm
Cost Per Missile: 0.75021    Development Cost: 75
Chance to Hit: 1k km/s 210.0%   3k km/s 70.0%   5k km/s 42.0%   10k km/s 21.0%   20k km/s 10.5%   50k km/s 4.2%   100k km/s 2.1%

Thus, only for the 1st tier of tech the AMMs perform slightly better than the current game, afterwards, it is a straight across-board nerf. Another example at higher tech (Ion engine):
Warhead strength 4/MSP
Engine power 0.32/MSP
Fuel efficiency 0.8
Engine max power boost 1.5
Missile agility 80/MSP
No agility:
Code: [Select]
Missile Size: 1.0000 MSP (2.5000 Tons)    Warhead: 0.0504    Radiation Damage: 0    Manoeuver Rating: 10
Speed: 72,800 km/s    Fuel: 54    Flight Time: 14 seconds    Range: 1.02 Mkm
Cost Per Missile: 1.83260    Development Cost: 183
Chance to Hit: 1k km/s 728.0%   3k km/s 242.7%   5k km/s 145.6%   10k km/s 72.8%   20k km/s 36.4%   50k km/s 14.6%   100k km/s 7.3%

Current:
Code: [Select]
Missile Size: 1.0000 MSP (2.5000 Tons)    Warhead: 1    Radiation Damage: 1    Manoeuver Rating: 37
Speed: 35,200 km/s    Fuel: 79    Flight Time: 29 seconds    Range: 1.05 Mkm
Cost Per Missile: 1.66029    Development Cost: 166
Chance to Hit: 1k km/s 1302.4%   3k km/s 434.1%   5k km/s 260.5%   10k km/s 130.2%   20k km/s 65.1%   50k km/s 26.0%   100k km/s 13.0%
The 100% hit speed is 7280km/s vs 13024km/s, with the AMM without agility only having a 16.7% chance to destroy an S6 missile on a hit, and being more expensive compared to the current version.

One additional result: at high tech when all missiles can reach the speed cap (light speed), AMM will always have a 10% hit chance, rendering them largely useless.


2, after removing agility, missile design basically becomes 'get the highest engine power and profit' other than in some extreme cases (read, extreme long-range missiles). For example, let's say we are designing an AMM at early tech, with the following techs (1 tier above the starting tech)
Warhead strength 3/MSP
Engine power 0.25/MSP
Fuel efficiency 0.9
Engine max power boost 1.25
Using a warhead of 0.05, i.e., the smallest useful warhead for AMMs to maximize the potential to play with engine and fuel sizes. In this case, for any missiles with a range of less than 44.6Mkm (laughable extreme for early tech AMMs), the max engine power boost is the best choice.
Code: [Select]
Missile Size: 1.0000 MSP (2.5000 Tons)    Warhead: 0.0501    Radiation Damage: 0    Manoeuver Rating: 10
Speed: 10,200 km/s    Fuel: 433    Flight Time: 4,376 seconds    Range: 44.64 Mkm
Cost Per Missile: 0.27253    Development Cost: 27
Chance to Hit: 1k km/s 102.0%   3k km/s 34.0%   5k km/s 20.4%   10k km/s 10.2%   20k km/s 5.1%   50k km/s 2.0%   100k km/s 1.0%


In the end, I'd suggest something similar to what Jorgan_CAB has mentioned, limit the agility tech to a smaller range and have a linear increase instead of completely removing it. This way AMMs can be more viable in the early game (still much worse than beam PD), while avoiding them being too powerful late game compared to beam PD. There were some numbers I crunched for an earlier similar discussion http://aurora2.pentarch.org/index.php?topic=11904.msg140898#msg140898


I agree with and suggest you reevaluate the change to agility as mathematically this will nerf AMMs and cause missile design to be less interesting, you state that the removal was based on the rule exception agility has and that it is located nowhere else in aurora, however missiles have plenty of those see 2x power boost special rule which missiles have, I feel this change would of been fine if replaced by some other system but the math shows that it will negatively effect the intended outcome people want and what i believe you want here.

Am not saying to readd agility but either do that or make a replacement that makes more sense for you and adjusts the math iceranger shows
 

Offline xenoscepter

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EDITED TO REDUCE CLUTTER

 --- Another weird idea, but what if bigger missiles were cheaper? Maybe the idea is that the systems can be less expensive because they don't need to be as compact to do the same thing?

 --- OH! What about flares!? So basically, you spend MSP on these flares, right? You can spend it both on number of flares and the efficacy of said flares. Every time PD engages a missile, a flare is consumed which gives a sort of bonus to avoid being hit. It could conceivably extend even further and allow flares to apply salvo wide, with the drawback that all missiles with salvo wide flares would deploy those flares if/when the salvo is engaged, rendering multiple missiles with salvo wide flares in a single salvo redundant.

 --- Could even have the flare efficacy scale to missile size, so bigger missiles need more msp in efficacy to get a better bonus than smaller ones. Then have the flare capacity scale to missile size allowing bigger missiles to spend less msp for the same number of uses relative to a smaller missile.

 --- Maybe allow missiles to carry a wide area ECM, that is divided up evenly amongst missiles in the salvo? Make big missiles useful for ECMing whole salvos.

 --- Perhaps have decoys, but they're split between missile decoys to attract any missiles shot at them, and one for beam PD to attract shots from those. So you would need to spend msp on the right type of decoy. With flares and salvo wide ECM and/or salvo wide flares, you could have massive dedicated Decoy Drones.

 --- Maybe let missile sensors or ECCM grant a chance to detect and/or ignore decoy missiles?  Maybe allow Missile FCS to operate in an Anti-Decoy mode, but requiring it to be on a one-to-one basis? So basically you can add some redundant Missile FCS's and each one can negate the decoys of one salvo? Same with Beam FCS's so there's a reason to add extras sometimes outside of redundancy / anti-fighter swarm.

 --- Yet another weird idea... Shield Launchers. Basically, a missile launched from a "Shield Launcher" would gain shields equivalent to the ability of the shield launcher. The shield launcher would impart a certain shield strength according to it's design, and would need to wait for the shield to recharge before it could fire again regardless of missile reload speed.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2023, 03:23:29 PM by xenoscepter »
 
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Offline Zap0

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--- Another weird idea, but what if bigger missiles were cheaper? Maybe the idea is that the systems can be less expensive because they don't need to be as compact to do the same thing?

One of the bigger problems facing a missile doctrine today is cost, especially in Gallicite. With the initially proposed changes to missile launcher sizes to allow more MSP to fit into the same amount of launchers missile doctrines may become more viable, but it'll also exacerbate the cost problem. Making larger missiles cheaper proportionally to how many more launchers could fit under the proposed change would offset this.

I'd also support something like a flat 50% cost reduction for missiles or just missile engines.
 

Offline Iceranger

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EDITED TO REDUCE CLUTTER

 --- Another weird idea, but what if bigger missiles were cheaper? Maybe the idea is that the systems can be less expensive because they don't need to be as compact to do the same thing?
I think this might be a good way to promote big missiles.

--- OH! What about flares!? So basically, you spend MSP on these flares, right? You can spend it both on number of flares and the efficacy of said flares. Every time PD engages a missile, a flare is consumed which gives a sort of bonus to avoid being hit. It could conceivably extend even further and allow flares to apply salvo wide, with the drawback that all missiles with salvo wide flares would deploy those flares if/when the salvo is engaged, rendering multiple missiles with salvo wide flares in a single salvo redundant.
I like this. This effectively makes it easer for larger missiles to go through PD despite having a smaller salvo size. This is kind of the old missile armor, slightly worse than that (as flares/chaffs are released no matter whether the PD shot is hit or not, while armor is only deducted when the shot actually hits). Perhaps each flare only has a certain chance to force a PD shot to miss. Perhaps it can also be countered by ECCM as you mentioned.

--- Could even have the flare efficacy scale to missile size, so bigger missiles need more msp in efficacy to get a better bonus than smaller ones. Then have the flare capacity scale to missile size allowing bigger missiles to spend less msp for the same number of uses relative to a smaller missile.
I'd prefer giving it a minimum size so it can only be effectively mounted on larger missiles.

--- Maybe allow missiles to carry a wide area ECM, that is divided up evenly amongst missiles in the salvo? Make big missiles useful for ECMing whole salvos.
Very interesting, so you can mix a special missile in a salvo. Although currently in the game, different missile types launched together are considered different salvos.

--- Perhaps have decoys, but they're split between missile decoys to attract any missiles shot at them, and one for beam PD to attract shots from those. So you would need to spend msp on the right type of decoy. With flares and salvo wide ECM and/or salvo wide flares, you could have massive dedicated Decoy Drones.
This is basically PD flare and AMM flare, perhaps just combining them into one would suffice.

--- Maybe let missile sensors or ECCM grant a chance to detect and/or ignore decoy missiles?  Maybe allow Missile FCS to operate in an Anti-Decoy mode, but requiring it to be on a one-to-one basis? So basically you can add some redundant Missile FCS's and each one can negate the decoys of one salvo? Same with Beam FCS's so there's a reason to add extras sometimes outside of redundancy / anti-fighter swarm.
Also interesting.

--- Yet another weird idea... Shield Launchers. Basically, a missile launched from a "Shield Launcher" would gain shields equivalent to the ability of the shield launcher. The shield launcher would impart a certain shield strength according to it's design, and would need to wait for the shield to recharge before it could fire again regardless of missile reload speed.
I think this has been ruled out as right now missiles and ships calculate armor and shield the same way, so there is no effective way to give missiles shields, according to Steve.
 

Offline xenoscepter

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 --- To clarify on the flares versus decoys, the flares would impart a chance to miss the missile in question while decoys would cause PD fire to be attracted TO the missile in question.

 --- So a missile with Beam PD Decoy and Flares would pop it's flares if an AMM was shot at it, but wouldn't attract the AMM. When it got to the Beam PD, if it had flares it would pop those when shot at, but would ALSO attract that Beam PD fire to it, forcing the PD to shoot at it before the actual damage dealing missiles.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2023, 04:50:16 PM by xenoscepter »
 

Offline boolybooly

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OK brainstorming, so what about... boarding pods? If a large missile can have troop space inside it, plus ECM plus HTK and then the boarding rules apply to the very fast boarding pod if it makes contact with a ships hull without shields.

Another idea, a Bose-Einstein Condensate ram, attacks the outer hull at range like a shaped charge, spreading like high velocity jello, condensing the armour into the synchronous mass and peeling off a large spread of the outer layer (not penetrating but removing armour layers) which then splashes and rebounds with a chance of hitting any other vessels in the same location like a flak blast. Each one point of hull / condensate amalgam then becomes one lump of rebound and can hit or miss the hull of another vessel meaning a proportion of the original strike value is lost but the remainder creates secondary surface damage on other ships within a given range. Chance is per ship so a dense stack has a higher proportion of secondary damage.

Shield blasting volumetric detonations maybe using radiation amplification tech like a neutron bomb on large warheads which detonate at range and cause damage to shields only, on all ships within range of the blast, which depends on the size of the detonation therefore missile size, hence large missiles are better and can detonate further away escaping close range PD.

Reflective fairings could be a manufacturing cost penalty which give missiles invulnerability against laser and microwave fire.
« Last Edit: February 25, 2023, 08:30:55 AM by boolybooly »
 
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Offline Demetrious

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The need for maximized salvo sizes itself stems from the fact that missiles in Aurora are "dumb;" they beeline for the target without a thought as soon as they clear the tube and there's no way to delay one or two (vectoring them towards outlying steerpoints that are staggered) to ensure a simultaneous time-on-target arrival.

This actually used to be possible in very old VB6 versions and it was possibly the most OP thing that has ever been in the game. You can still read about this tactic in Steve or Kurt's oldest AARs for instance.

I can see why the feature was removed - it belongs to a level of complexity a step above what Aurora has been trying to model so far. Without the rest of that complexity there's not much point to having it.

Can you explain how this would motivate size-2 AMMs? Assuming that Steve would keep the maximum standoff of laser warheads at 5 LS (1.5m km) to be consistent with every beam weapon and BFC in the game, and knowing that current size-1 AMMs comfortably exceed 2m km range after very low tech levels, I'm not seeing the logic here.

I'm presuming that ECM/ECCM will be given more depth past the current mechanic of (if I recall correctly) 0.25MSP fixed cost to include either, as well as higher-speed AMMs to ensure they can reach intercept range of the laser warhead in time. (To keep it consistent with ship rules, perhaps we'd have the option of 0.25MSP to get our racial Compact ECM/ECCM tech in, and pay .50 MSP for our non-compact ECM/ECCM?) It's also possible that the nature of the weapon (a single-use bomb-pumped x-ray laser) will result in maximum ranges greater than what a ship powered laser can manage (if one uses a significantly large missile and warhead,) creating a niche case for a 1.2 or 1.6 or 2.0 MSP AMM.

I think many of the discussions around missile balance are related to all-or-nothing, without realizing it.

This is an insightful comment. We've all been trying to work within the one dynamic we have, without trying to move outside it, and one reason for that, I think, is that defense saturation is a real life concern for missile defense; with striking at range (AAMs) and ECM (jammers) both ways to mitigate the problem. But due to various simplifications necessary for a game (especially one originally based on tabletop rules) and the ongoing re-balancing process as the game is re-invented from its VB6 self, there is effectively only one way to stop missiles: to shoot them down with energy based point defense.

The problem with ECM/ECCM is that it's mostly reliant on strategic resource allocations made over the course of years (i.e. current state-of-the-art in related tech) and presents no serious design choices at the ship design stage except for the lightest of warships (it's only a few hundred tons and the benefits are usually well worth it.) It should be noted that this is fairly true to life; there's sharply diminishing returns for simply increasing the power output of a jammer, as a jammer that's too loud just becomes a homing beacon (home-on-jam.) In my experience, since the (much, much needed) improvement in energy weapons in C# there's little to no reason to bother with AMMs - even accounting for NPR's not learning of reduced-size launchers till recently, my all-raingun armed ships have been able to wade through fire with ease, and enemy fleets with few dedicated escorts can still soak up an impressive number of missiles due to the contributing fire of primary batteries. Though I haven't tried to quantify this with Numbers, it really feels like AMMs are just not worth the tonnage. Ergo why salvo mass is paramount in turn; to break through that all-or-nothing final-defensive-fire flak screen. (Larger guns cycle slower but if NPR's knew to set them to area fire the longer reach could make up for that, and in either case if you push the limits you're still right back to 10cm rail and gauss turrets, at best.)

Of course, I could be wrong. There could be a wide space in which a certain ratio of energy defense to AMM defense could fare much better against incoming salvos than just energy alone - it'd take analysis skills beyond my own to investigate. But I think the fact we're having this conversation at all is testament to the fact that we're not encountering that space often enough in play to satisfy us; there's not many engagements where the salvos break through and do some damage, but not decisive damage. And even if they did there seems to be a paucity of engagements that start with such an exchange, and are then continued by the gunships closing for direct combat. I don't think we can blame NPR's for that, but ourselves. We'll always be able to out-optimize NPR's because they're dumb. AI is dumb, and people with multi-million dollar budgets have tried and often failed to make them less dumb. So it's up to us to design "reasonable" ships that don't bully the NPR's too much so we can have interesting fights. Fair enough.

... but those ships themselves feel boring. As someone else in this thread lamented, having a few big "torpedo launchers" on a ship to complement beam weapons is effectively useless. This goes for entire fleets, too. Just a little energy or a little missile isn't going to make the difference in most engagements. So you're back to that theoretical missile engagement --> follow-up energy engagement, so what does your reasonable, non-NPR bullying fleet look like? Well, 70% missile, 30% energy? 60-40, maybe? That's it. That's what the decision space boils down to for you - a ratio. And you're always keenly aware that you may end up like Yamato at Midway, holding a bunch of limp battleships in your hand as you charge around looking for a battle-line engagement after the enemy carriers have slam-dunked you hard. As that example shows, that's a realistic danger - further incentivizing an all-or-nothing approach in either missiles or energy weapons to maximize the return on investment and ensure every ton of hull is contributing towards success of the overall strategy instead of risking being dead weight (perhaps literally.) Real-life navies optimize as best they're able, too! But their conflicts are still fraught with uncertainty and danger because they don't have the nice, predictable sterility that the high levels of abstraction of a tabletop rules-set provides.

In sum, we need a wider design space.

Standoff missiles definitely help provide that by allowing for effective anti-ship attack outside the energy point-defense envelope. This immediately presents new choices to both attacker and defender by introducing a whole new possible paradigm for missile attack; one governed by much smaller salvos of much larger missiles, which themselves are countered by rapid-fire AMM launchers and/or dedicated long-range energy weapons, like turreted lasers (which, due to their nature, will also have a dual anti-ship role, much as batteries of 10cm rail or gauss turrets do against fighters or in very close brawls.) Now both sides have to weigh their offense and defense more carefully, it's not just "bring as much of X or Y as possible," but "how much do I devote against saturation attack by old-fashioned nukes, and how much do I invest in ranged defenses?"

This is still only two options, of course. Utilizing ECM more dynamically would go against how it's used for ship vs. ship combat (it's either present or it isn't and its efficacy is determined by long-term investment, not design-time choices.) But we do still have decoys - and this is in fact how Nebulous decided to complicate matters. Currently the game has three sizes of missiles - size 1 (much like an Aurora AMM, usually used for point-defense but also capable of light anti-ship work en-masse,) size two (your solid, reliable all-rounder missile) and size three (big, slow, but devastating torpedoes.) It also has two types of missiles - standard and hybrid, the latter being staged missiles. Unlike Aurora, the second stages are of unique design, being "sprint" missiles moving much faster than you can get the base weapon to move, but having severely constrained release range. This leads to a dynamic where sprint missiles that stage are very, very hard to stop, but if you invest in expensive niche capabilities meant to counter those expensive niche missiles, you can quite readily pop these weapon's slow cruise boosters before they stage. But it's effectively impossible to adequately protect against all potential threats within the point limit - long-range energy weapons to pop those hybrid missiles, AMMs to knock down heavy armored torpedoes, and rapid-fire CIWS to fend off Aurora-style old fashioned SARH saturation attack. One class of threats almost always has to be covered by less effective means, and for me that typically means decoys - and due to a variety of seeker options, it can be hard to carry a sufficient array to reliably spoof every potential attack!

Nebulous is a more complex game on the tactical level than Aurora, so we needn't import all that, but one more paradigm, something to give us a kind of "rock-paper-scissors" set of choices in offense and defense, may prove ideal in recreating that realistic dynamic where you have too few resources to robustly guard against every possible threat your foe's fleet doctrine may have, so you have to use tactics and strategy to mitigate those risks. For instance, we could just make missiles much more dangerous so they can generally swamp any point defense if they get a good, solid alpha strike in, and then make Aurora "carrier battles in space;" first one to get a shot off typically wins and the real work of interception happens at a good distance by carrier launched fighters. And that dynamic would work. It'd even feel a bit less arbitrary than the one-time shooting match of PD vs. alpha strike. But soon we'd be back to optimizing things to the limit, like two duelists shuffling in a straight line along an elevated plank, even if the plank was a bit wider than before. I think it'd be much more interesting, and suited for Aurora's intended use as an RP tool, to have the aforementioned uncertainty dynamic, where you can never adequately guard against all threats in the tonnage you have, and if you do, you leave yourself vulnerable to someone who focused their offense keenly on one area. The key, then, is to either specialize, or generalize, and use other tactics (stealth, scouting, distant pickets, clever tricks with sensor-equipped missiles, whatever else we can think of) to cover one's disadvantages and play to ones advantages (for the generalist, that means finding the enemy's disadvantage and positioning to exploit it.)

I'm bad at game design. I have no idea what the best way to implement this is. But there's plenty of people in here who could... if it actually would advance Steve's overall development goals for Aurora.
 
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Offline nuclearslurpee (OP)

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It's also possible that the nature of the weapon (a single-use bomb-pumped x-ray laser) will result in maximum ranges greater than what a ship powered laser can manage (if one uses a significantly large missile and warhead,) creating a niche case for a 1.2 or 1.6 or 2.0 MSP AMM.

I suppose it's not impossible. Large ship-based lasers are range-limited by the BFC (and cannot exceed 5 LS due to Aurora's hard limit). Without a BFC and given that a laser warhead is a spread of damage rather than a precision strike, I could see Steve lifting the range limit for that special case - though it leaves a question as to how a range limit should be determined, since the theoretical maximum range of a laser at MaxTech is 30m km if I've calculated correctly (if you use the Advanced Spinal mount) which is pretty excessive and bring up some serious questions about targeting.

That being said, AMM range is really pretty trivial. At Ion Drive tech level, I can easily draw up an AMM with 5m km range, ~25% to 33% hit chance (depending on target ASM speed at the same tech level), and superior speed to any realistic ASM at that tech level (25k or 30k km/s for Ion Drive). For comparison, the maximum range of a 37.5cm Far UV Advanced Spinal Laser (i.e. comparable tech level) is less than 2m km, and again I doubt it will make sense to set the range for laser warheads based on maximum laser technology.

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In my experience, since the (much, much needed) improvement in energy weapons in C# there's little to no reason to bother with AMMs - even accounting for NPR's not learning of reduced-size launchers till recently, my all-raingun armed ships have been able to wade through fire with ease, and enemy fleets with few dedicated escorts can still soak up an impressive number of missiles due to the contributing fire of primary batteries. Though I haven't tried to quantify this with Numbers, it really feels like AMMs are just not worth the tonnage.

AMMs become necessary chiefly to defeat box launcher-based salvos which can overwhelm energy PD. As NPRs do not use this tactic (maybe the new FACs do, but I'm not sure how effectively as I haven't fought them yet), AMMs are generally pretty unimportant and not cost-effective.

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Personally, I don't think we can stake-through-heart kill the all-or-nothing dynamic of missile warfare in Aurora. In part, to me this feels by design, because Aurora is more about strategic superiority than tactical, and the level of combat modeling is really based on fleets rather than individual ships as the maneuver units (hence fleet-wide PD instead of per-ship CIWS in most cases).

At this point, I think Steve is on the right track generally with the idea of adding more tactical options for missiles which can open up design space beyond the small-ASM meta we current have - the strategic dynamic is the same in any case but it's fun to have more tactical options to get there and ideally a guessing game in terms of PD doctrines will keep things interesting. I would like to see the fire control changes that have been discussed but this depends on how Steve chooses to think about the salvo mechanic as he has already noted.
 

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Regarding the salvo engaging mechanics for PD, thanks to @mtm84 on the community discord, I found an interesting connection between the current mechanism and the one in VB6.

Let's consider a model where each BFC will engage its first salvo with the normal chance to hit p until the salvo is completely destroyed, then the second salvo with a hit chance of a * p, where 0<= a <=1, the third salvo with a hit chance of a^2 * p, and so on, until it runs out of shots from the guns it controls.

The current salvo engaging mechanism has a = 1, i.e., one FC can engage an unlimited number of salvos.

The VB6 engaging mode, where one BFC can only engage one salvo, in the above model means a = 0.

I think this connection can actually makes some potentially interesting new engagement model to break the law of large numbers (as I discussed in my earlier posts), while not so restrictive as the VB6 model. The lower the parameter a is, the better it avoids going into the region where the law of large numbers applies. The larger a is, the less impact of having too few BFCs matters.

Maybe make the parameter a researchable, going from say 0.4 to 0.8 in several steps.

The engagement model should be somewhat similar to what we have now, each BFC always picks the fastest and the largest available salvo to engage with the aforementioned hit chance, until it runs out of shots. Every time it completely destroys a salvo, its hit chance gets reduced. The explanation for this reduction can be that the need to redirect guns to a new target in a pinch reduces the accuracy.

Personally, I don't think we can stake-through-heart kill the all-or-nothing dynamic of missile warfare in Aurora. In part, to me this feels by design, because Aurora is more about strategic superiority than tactical, and the level of combat modeling is really based on fleets rather than individual ships as the maneuver units (hence fleet-wide PD instead of per-ship CIWS in most cases).
Indeed there is no way to completely kill the all-or-nothing dynamic as there is no way to prevent someone bring an overwhelming missile array or PD array into the battlefield. What I hope is to increase the chance that some of the missiles get through when the PD side is a bit more than your salvo size.
 
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